After a miserable Week 2 that saw my picks go 1-5, I can safely say that my picks were fade-worthy last week. That being said, Week 2 had a lot of shenanigans take place that made even the most seasoned bettor take it on the chin.
Since football is a game of ebbs and flows, I feel I’m primed for a bounce-back performance in Week 3 and if you disagree with my picks, be bold and bet against me.
Here we go!
All lines courtesy of Sportsbook
The Pick: OVER 41 – Bills vs Vikings
I like this one mainly because of how poor the Bills defense is. Buffalo’s defense is allowing a league-worst 39 points per game and will be going into a very hostile environment in Minnesota. The Vikings offense looks to have hit another gear with Kirk Cousins at QB and Minnesota could get this OVER by themselves. After throwing 4 TDs vs the Packers, I expect Cousins and company to drop at least 35 points on this defense with the Bills doing what they did in Week 2 and scoring 17 points in the second half when the game was all but decided.
The Pick: Dolphins Moneyline OVER the Raiders
Don’t look now but Miami is a feisty 2-0. The Fins have taken care of business in their first two games by choking out the Titans and Jets and now get to welcome an awful Raiders team to the peak sun of South Florida. The Dolphins defense has been pretty good by only allowing 16 points per game (ranked fourth) and has managed five interceptions, which tops the NFL. I’m still a little hesitant taking them to cover outright but their moneyline still offers decent value for a single-play.
The Pick: Packers Moneyline Over the Redskins
Did you see how awful the Deadskins looked in their home opener? The ’Skins couldn’t even score a touchdown vs the Colts and were dominated in almost every facet of the game. I know Aaron Rodgers doesn’t look right but they should be 2-0 right now after getting robbed by a late penalty on Clay Matthews for roughing the passer. I’m avoiding the spread as I feel like the Redskins will keep this game close with Rodgers using his fourth-quarter magic to squeak out the victory.
The Pick: UNDER 53 – Saints vs Falcons
For two offenses that have tremendous firepower, there’s something about when these two teams clash that negates those strengths. The Falcons offense looks lost and can’t seem to dial up points like in years past. And that has shown with the fact that the UNDER has hit in eight of their last nine games dating back to last season, with an average combined score of 35.8 points. Even though they’re a dome team, the Saints offense doesn’t seem to travel like it should either as they’ve averaged just under 22 points per game in their last five trips to the ATL with the UNDER hitting in four of those games. This is either going to be a game with over 70 points or in the 40s, so I’m banking on the latter.
The Pick: Patriots -6.5 vs Lions
My colleague Smokin’ Joe Osborne wrote the betting preview for this matchup and I couldn’t agree with him more. New England looks like a steal at -6.5 and when the Patriots are coming off a loss, they’re covering the spread at an impressive rate. The Pats are 14-2-1 ATS in their last 17 games following a loss and when it’s a double-digit loss their ATS record is 21-6 in their last 27 games. I know the Lions are back-door cover artists but their defense is one of the worst in the league (39 points per game allowed) so I have to side with the Patriots when the spread is less than a touchdown.
The Pick: Rams -6.5 vs Chargers
My vote for the best team in the NFL, the LA Rams favored by less than a touchdown is a bet I’ll make against any team in the league except for the Patriots. The Rams as a favorite are an excellent wager lately as they’ve gone 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS in their last nine games in that spot and the Rams are 10-3 SU and 8-5 ATS since the start of last season which coincides with head coach Sean McVay’s arrival. I know the Chargers will put up points but they’re missing their best pass rusher in Joey Bosa and have allowed an average of 29 points per game this season. I think the Chargers stay within 10 points, which is just enough for me to nail my bet.
