‘Kings’ of the North: Browns Favored Over Steelers on Thursday Night

The Steelers defended their home turf and didn’t allow an offensive touchdown to a Rams team averaging 25 points per game in a 17-12 victory to improve to 5-4 straight up and 5-3-1 against the spread.

Despite their last-minute go-ahead touchdown, the Browns remained a beautiful disaster in a 19-16 win and ATS push against Buffalo. Cleveland snapped its four-game losing streak to improve to 3-6 SU and 2-6-1 ATS.

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

The Browns opened as 3-point home favorites before a slight pull-back to Cleveland -2.5. Pittsburgh’s moneyline opened at +136 and the point total at 41.5. The total has gone UNDER in 10 of the Steelers’ last 12 AFC North road games.

Baker Mayfield is 1-2-1 ATS in games in which the Browns were home favorites of 3 or fewer points. This will mark only the 10th time since the start of the 2015 season that Cleveland has been a home favorite of any spread. However, the Browns are 6-2 ATS in their eight games against the AFC North, including a 40-25 win over the Ravens earlier this season. Pittsburgh has won four consecutive games SU and ATS when road dogs of 3 or fewer points, but none of them have come this season.

Pittsburgh News & Notes

Steelers running back James Conner has missed the past two games with a nagging shoulder injury, but reports suggest he’s on track to return against the Browns. Conner scored in three consecutive games before missing the past two. His presence will provide a much-needed boost to a offense that has averaged the ninth-fewest rush yards per game the past three – 96.7 RYPG – and just 1.6 yards per rush against the Rams last Sunday.

After averaging 6.1 yards per play with Ben Roethlisberger behind center last season, Pittsburgh has dropped to 5.0 YPP this season (fifth-fewest) and 4.8 YPP over its past three games. This is where we applaud the Steelers defense for keeping the team’s playoff hopes alive.

Fresh and rested off their bye, the Rams converted just one of 14 third-down tries and reached the red zone only once against this Steelers defense. With the Cleveland offense stuck in a quagmire, this doesn’t bode well for Baker Mayfield and company.

The Browns will have to pick their poison as Pittsburgh’s rush and pass defense has improved in recent weeks. The Steelers allowed fewer than 193 pass yards and fewer than 96 rush yards per game over their past three contests. Since joining Pittsburgh, safety Minkah Fitzpatrick has 34 tackles and five interceptions.

Cleveland News & Notes

The Browns may have beat the Bills, but if you look beyond the final score, you’ll learn that this Cleveland offense that features Nick Chubb, Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry ran eight plays from Buffalo’s two-yard line and did not score. In a season on the brink of disaster, this eight-play montage is a microcosm of Cleveland’s mediocrity and inability to take the next step under Freddie Kitchens. In that same breath, it’s a challenge to buy them as favorites in any game, even at home.

Simply put, the Browns offensive line has to be at its best Thursday night as they’ll face a Steelers pass rush averaging a league-best 4.3 sacks per game over their past three contests. Baker Mayfield has been sacked 25 times – seventh-most this season.

To be fair, the line has opened up holes for Nick Chubb, who has rushed for 116 or more yards in three of his past four games. The second-year back is averaging 5.28 yards per rush, which is second only to Christian McCaffrey’s 5.34.

According to local reports, wide receiver Antonio Callaway was benched in Week 10 for “disciplinary reasons” by head coach Freddie Kitchens. If he’s benched again, Rashard Higgins – who caught the game-Sportsbook against Buffalo – will slide into Callaway’s role again.

Betting Pick: Steelers ML

The Browns remain flawed in many areas and, unfortunately, it appears the offensive line woes will linger on into the 2020 season. Pittsburgh’s pass rush will exploit this weakness and convert Cleveland turnovers into points. Mason Rudolph just needs to do what he does best: game-manage.