Fresh off a huge win over the New England Patriots while halting a three-game losing streak, the 8-5-1 SU Pittsburgh Steelers are in tough in Week 16 against a 12-2 New Orleans Saints team that’s won five of six home games in 2018. Sportsbooks opened the Saints as 5.5-point favorites with a total of 53.5.
- The total has gone OVER in four of the Steelers’ last five games vs the Saints (avg. combined score: 55.6).
- The Saints are 4-0 ATS in their last four games at home.
- The Steelers are 10-2-1 SU in their last 13 games on the road.
Steelers vs Saints Game Center
Connor’s return could be huge for Steelers
Pittsburgh’s win over New England was badly needed for a variety of reasons, but the Steelers haven’t wrapped up the AFC North just yet. With Baltimore right on their heels, a win in the Bayou State would give them back-to-back wins over Super Bowl contenders. The loss of James Connor has hampered the running game, but he’s expected to return from a two-game absence to play against the Saints.
When it comes to the total, bettors may want to pay close attention to the OVER in this one. In the past five matchups between the squads, the OVER is 4-1 with an average combined score of 55.6 points.
Saints offense has sputtered of late
The Saints held the Carolina Panthers to 247 total yards in their 12-9 victory on Monday Night Football while sacking Cam Newton four times and forcing a pair of turnovers. Going back to the Superdome could be just what the doctor ordered for a Saints offense that’s produced just 50 points over its past three contests. New Orleans averages 10 points per game more at home than on the road, so don’t be surprised if Drew Brees and company have a bounce-back performance in Louisiana.
The Saints’ track record at home speaks for itself. New Orleans is 4-0 ATS in its last four home contests, with the Saints going 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in their past seven home games against teams with winning records. The visiting team is also 1-4 SU in the previous five meetings between Pittsburgh and New Orleans.
My pick: take the Saints
While the Saints haven’t been their usual selves on offense of late, it’s simply too tough to trust the Steelers right now. Yes, their triumph over New England was massive, but prior losses to Denver, the Los Angeles Chargers and the lowly Oakland Raiders have made me wary of Big Ben and company. I think the Steelers will still be a playoff team, but I’m taking the Saints to win and cover in this one.
