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Point spread favors Broncos in battle with Titans

Tennessee TitansDenver Broncos

With two wins in three weeks over the division-rival Chiefs the Denver Broncos almost have the AFC West locked up.

But the Patriots keep winning, too, keeping the pressure on Denver in the battle for the top seed in the AFC.

The Broncos can move one step closer to that top seed when they host the 5-7 Tennesee Titans Sunday at Mile High.

Denver's only two losses this season have come at AFC South-leading Indianapolis and, two weeks ago, at AFC East-leading New England. But that second loss could be costly if the Broncos allow the Patriots to make up a game on them over this last month of the season.

Tennessee, meanwhile, just lost another close game, 22-14 at the Colts. Of the Titans' seven losses five have come by one score or less.

As of early this week Denver was favored by 12 points over Tennessee at Bovada.

A couple of OVER trends emerge here as seven of past eight meetings played OVER the total and the OVER is 7-0-1 past eight games when Broncos are double-digit home chalk. Overall, Denver is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games vs Titans.

Supporters of the Titans have seen them go 5-7 and 6-5-1 ATS so far this season, while the Broncos are at 10-2 and 7-5 ATS. In totals betting, the Broncos are 10-2, while the Titans are 7-4-1.

View Tennessee Titans vs Denver Broncos Odds and Stats.

Sportsbooks, including 5Dimes, had set the Broncos as -12-point favorites on the opening line for this contest. The total was hovering around 49 earlier in the week (check for the current over-under lines).

The Broncos sit at No. 1 in the current NFL Power Rankings here at OddsShark, while the Titans are at No. 15 on that chart. Math models have concluded that the Broncos will win this game 37-25.

Tennessee was a 22-14 loser in its last match on the road against the Colts. They failed to cover the 3.5-point spread as underdogs, while the total score of 36 sent UNDER bettors to the payout window. The Titans suffered a Week 13 loss against Indianapolis in their last game, falling 22-14 at Lucas Oil Stadium. Last time out, Peyton Manning threw for 5 scores and 403 yards in leading his team past Kansas City at Arrowhead Stadium.

How They Match Up:
The game also pits Denver's No. 1-ranked offense, averaging 38.67 PPG, against a Titans defense that ranks No. 11 this week at 22.25 PPG. The Broncos aerial game is averaging 336.58 yards per game, more than the Titans secondary allows through the air, 212.58 YPG per game.

In comparing defenses, the Titans own the league's No. 20-rated front 7 in terms of stopping the run, allowing 118.5 yards per game when on the road. Denver, on the other hand, rates No. 17 this week in generating rushing yards at home.

A few Titans at Broncos trends to consider:
Tennessee is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Tennessee is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 6 games
Tennessee is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Denver is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Denver is 21-3 SU in its last 24 games
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Denver's last 13 games
Denver is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games at home

Next up:
Tennessee home to Arizona, Sunday, December 15th
Denver home to San Diego, Thursday, December 12th