The strange trend of the New England Patriots failing to cover NFL point spreads at home in the month of November continued two weeks as they lost to the Giants.
This time, it's the Kansas City Chiefs visiting Foxboro on Monday Night Football with the odds stacked high against KC. And they will look to continue a 2-11 ATS run for the Pats at home in November. [ See dozens of Tom Brady and New England Patriots Monday Night props at bottom of this article ]
However, bettors who follow Monday Night Football trends can hardly recall a game when the Patriots played UNDER at home on MNF. The last time was 1998 and the OVER is 7-0-1 in eight MNF home game since then. Also of note, the Patrots 7-3 ATS overall in their past 10 Monday Nighters.
View Kansas City vs New England Odds and Stats.
Betting Line:
If you're siding with the visitors in this one you'll find the Chiefs opened as 14.5-point underdogs but it has been bet all the way to +17 at Sportsbook as of Monday. The best Pats line is -16 at Sportsbook. Meanwhile, the over under line for the matchup was at 48 and has been bet down to 46.5 where good total value is at Sportsbook.
Power Rankings / Prediction:
The game pits the Patriots, currently No. 12 in our OddsShark NFL Power Rankings, against the Chiefs, who rate No. 30 in the latest survey. Meanwhile, math and handicapping models run on this game predict a 29-14 victory for the Patriots.
How They Match Up:
The game also pits New England's No. 3-ranked offense, averaging 28.8 PPG, against a Chiefs defense that ranks No. 23 this week at 24.2 PPG. The Patriots aerial game is averaging 326 yards per game, more than the Chiefs secondary allows through the air, 230.3 YPG per game.
In comparing defenses, the Chiefs own the league's No. 12-rated front 7 in terms of stopping the run, allowing 109.8 yards per game when on the road. New England, on the other hand, rates No. 16 this week in generating rushing yards at home.
The Chiefs were a 17-10 loser in their most recent outing at home against the Broncos. They failed to cover the 3.5–point spread as favorites, while the total score (27) made winners of UNDER bettors. The Chiefs suffered a Week 10 loss against Denver in their last game, falling 17-10 at Arrowhead Stadium.
New England won its last outing, a 37-16 result against the Jets on November 13. The Patriots covered in that game as a 1-point underdog, while the 53 combined points took the game OVER the total. In their last game, the Patriots got 3 passing scores out of Tom Brady en route to a 37-16 win over the Jets on Sunday at MetLife Stadium.
Kansas City Chiefs Trends:
When playing in November are 4-6
When playing on turf are 3-7
After being outgained are 4-6
When playing outside the division are 6-4
New England Patriots Trends:
When playing in November are 6-4
When playing on turf are 7-3
After outgaining opponent are 8-2
When playing outside the division are 8-2
A few Chiefs at Patriots trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Kansas City's last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games when playing on the road against New England
Kansas City is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City's last 6 games on the road
New England is 20-3 SU in its last 23 games at home
New England is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Kansas City
The total has gone OVER in 8 of New England's last 10 games at home
New England is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Kansas City
Monday Night Props: courtesy of Sportsbook
(KC vs NE) Total Passing Yards – Tom Brady (NE)
Over 315½ (-130)o
(EVEN)u
(KC vs NE) Total TD Passes – Tom Brady (NE)
Over 2½ (-165)o
(+135)u
(KC vs NE) Total Interceptions – Tom Brady (NE)
Over ½ (-125)o
(-105)u
(KC vs NE) - Total Completions - Tom Brady (NE)
Over 25½ (-105)o
(-125)u
(KC vs NE) Total Rushing Yards – Tom Brady (NE)
Over 2½ (-105)o
(-125)u
(KC vs NE) Total Rushing Yards – BenJarvus Green-Ellis (NE)
Over 60½ (EVEN)o
(-130)u
(KC vs NE) Will BenJarvus Green-Ellis (NE) score a TD in the game?
Yes -105
No -125
(KC vs NE) Total Rushing & Receiving Yards – Danny Woodhead (NE)
Over 47½ (-115)o
(-115)u
(KC vs NE) Total Receptions – Danny Woodhead (NE)
Over 2½ (-115)o
(-115)u
(KC vs NE) Total Receiving Yards – Wes Welker (NE)
Over 90½ (-125)o
(-105)u
(KC vs NE) Total Receptions – Wes Welker (NE)
Over 7 (-125)o
(-105)u
(KC vs NE) Will Wes Welker (NE) score a TD in the game?
Yes -110
No -120
(KC vs NE) Total Receiving Yards – Deion Branch (NE)
Over 55½ (-115)o
(-115)u
(KC vs NE) Total Receptions – Deion Branch (NE)
Over 4 (-130)o
(EVEN)u
(KC vs NE) Total Receiving Yards – Rob Gronkowski (NE)
Over 72½ (-125)o
(-105)u
(KC vs NE) Total Receptions – Rob Gronkowski (NE)
Over 5½ (-150)o
(+120)u
(KC vs NE) Will Rob Gronkowski (NE) score a TD in the game?
Yes -140
No +110
(KC vs NE) Total Receiving Yards – Aaron Hernandez (NE)
Over 50½ (-115)o
(-115)u
(KC vs NE) Total Receptions – Aaron Hernandez (NE)
Over 4½ (-150)o
(+120)u
(KC vs NE) Will Aaron Hernandez (NE) score a TD in the game?
Yes +110
No -140
