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Rapid Capping For NFL Week 10

Handicapping the NFL can be a slog. So I break down every game from a betting standpoint for you in just a few lines with my opinions and some picks. 

Below is a look at Week 11 and first ... here’s a look at just how tough it is to find an edge in the NFL this season: 

Home teams are 61-61-9 ATS for the season.
Favored teams are 59-63-9 ATS for the season.
Underdog home teams are 24-22-3 ATS for the season.
The OVER/UNDER is 65-65-1 for the season.
Totals under 40 are 9-9 for the season.
Totals over 50 are 6-7 for the season.

Steelers at Colts +10, 45 – Steelers are 1-10 ATS as a double-digit road fave since 1980. Line is deserved here, though, and Pitts has covered four of last five. The Steelers are off a bye and are the No. 2 scoring defense in the NFL and the second-worst red zone team in the NFL for TD percentage, which is also why they’re the top UNDER team in the NFL at 1-7 O/U. Pittsburgh has won (and covered) the last three meetings by a score of 124-51. Colts offense averaging 16.3 ppg over its last four. UNDER and Colts team points UNDER are worth a look. 

Vikings at Redskins +1.5, 42 – Kirk Cousins was sacked a career-high six times last week behind an O-line missing four starters. Somehow the Skins beat an awful-looking Seahawks team. So the health of the O-line is vital for this game. Early guess is this O-line will be too banged up to get much done against a Vikings D that ranks: No. 3 in scoring D, No. 2 in ypp, No. 7 vs the rush & No. 7 vs the pass, 8th in sacks. Vikes have also covered three in a row and continue to see small spreads. Teams coming off a bye after playing in London are 12-1-1 ATS the last 3 seasons.  

Browns at Lions -11, 44 – Total opened at 41. Browns have lost 28 in a row when dogs of a TD or more so I won’t argue with any Lions teasers. Browns are also 1-6 ATS their last seven and are 7-26-1 ATS in their last 34 games overall. So high-fives for you if you take the Browns and win. If this number closes at -13, it will be the highest number the Lions have ever been favored by. All 3 of the others at -12 went UNDER. 

NY Jets at Tampa Bay +2.5, 43.5 – Jets have won & covered the eight previous meetings since 1985 but that’s not worth much. What is worth about two points to the spread in my view is that TB’s leading WR Mike Evans is suspended. The Bucs are the worst third-down defense in the NFL and worst in sacks. Also 30th against the pass. That’s trouble against Josh McCown, who has the second-best completion percentage in the NFL. Bucs are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven. The Jets are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven. Hmmm…

Packers at Bears -6 38 – Total opened at 41, moved down to 38. The Super Computer has the Bears demolishing the Packers 30.6 to 10.4. I like the Bears too but I would expect the 6-point spread to come down before kickoff. I’m leaning UNDER also. This Packers offense is built to pass protect and it is gasping for air during life under Brett Hundley, who has one TD, three INTs and is 34 of 89 (38%) through 2 ½ games. 

Chargers at Jaguars -3.5, 41 – Huge mismatch here with the Jags being the No. 1 rushing team in the NFL and the Chargers being the worst at stopping the run. We all know how good this Jags defense is. It leads the NFL in most defensive categories relating to passing and scoring. The Chargers get off to slower starts on the road this season also with just 7.8 points in the first half on the road versus 11 points in the first half at home. Jags first half is worth a look and this is not a defense you want to have to come back against if you’re looking at in-game action. 

Saints at Bills +3, 46 – The Saints are using the run much more this season and are better on defense. Last season were 28th in rush rate (36.6%), this year they are 14th before Week 9 (42.7%). Part of that is they aren’t coming from behind all the time. Saints are the third team to win six straight after an 0-2 start ... previous 2 each won Super Bowl: ’93 Cowboys, ’07 Giants. 14-1 futures. What I like about the Bills is they rank second in the NFL in passes defended (61), even though they don’t get to the QB a lot. I like that because Drew Brees has been sacked fewest times of any QB this year. I like the Bills here and I like them a lot on a teaser. 

Bengals at Titans -4.5, 40.5 – The Bengals have lost nine in a row straight up as a road dog so we’d be wise to pay attention to the odds here. They also have the second-worst rushing attack in the NFL and if the Titans defense is good at anything, it’s stopping the rush (10th). A banged-up receiving corps and an inefficient passing game don’t help Cincy but here’s one thing to grab onto if you like the Kitties: The Titans rely on rushing to score TDs (3rd in the NFL with 10 rushing vs third-worst in the NFL with 7 rec TDs ) and Cincy is second-stingiest in the NFL in rushing TDs allowed per game. 

Texans at Rams -11, 46 – This is the best scoring offense (Rams 32.9 ppg) vs the third-worst scoring defense (Texans 26.0 ppg). The Rams have gone over the total three times on their own this season and their futures odds went from 100-1 to 14-1. Texans covered all three games as a home dog this year and Rams lost their last two as home chalk. The big number here doesn’t scare me, though. 

NY Giants at 49ers +2.5, 42 – If the Niners end up as faves, it will be the first time this season. They’re 0-8 ATS last eight games as faves. Could happen considering Giants just allowed 51-plus points at home for the first time since 1964. The Niners are averaging two points in the first half over their last three ... maybe Giants first half? Blech. 

Cowboys at Falcons -3, 48.5 – This total is down three and a half points since it opened. Falcons are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games as a home fave. Ezekiel Elliott won’t play, but this line was made with that in mind, which I talked about on Wednesday on the podcast. This Falcons secondary is weak with just two INTs and 35 passes defended and Dak Prescott’s solid play is being overshadowed by the Zeke circus. I think Dallas wins outright. 

Patriots at Broncos +7.5, 45.5 – Tom Brady is 3-7 SU and ATS in Denver and I think this line would be about two points higher if that weren’t the case. For the second straight week, oddsmakers set a line that dares you to take fave against the underdog Broncos. Last week I advised you to take the fave Eagles against the Broncos and it’s the same this week. Don’t be scared of the hook and the public money. Pats are 28-2 straight up as a road fave of 7 points or more and New England is 5-1 ATS in its past six against the Broncos. Pats won four straight (3-1 ATS); Broncos 0-4 SU, ATS last four. New England’s last four games have also played UNDER and a huge reason is the pass D. Still ranked worst in the NFL but knocked 40 yds off their per game avg over last three. And these Denver QBs are just bad.  

Dolphins at Panthers -9, 38.5 – Line opened -7.5. Miami isn’t even averaging a point in the first half through its first four road games this season. That. Is. Disgusting. Worst first-half scoring team in the NFL and worst scoring team in the NFL. Going up against a very good D. UNDER first half and Panthers first half are plays I’ll look at here.

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