Ravens vs Chiefs Odds & Picks Week 1: Back King Henry

It's finally time to break down Ravens vs Chiefs odds & picks for Week 1, the first game of the 2024-25 NFL season.

This Thursday Night Football opening contest features an AFC Championship Game rematch from last year, with the Ravens looking to avenge an embarrassing loss. But, I'm not picking sides in this contest, instead looking to the UNDER and a Derrick Henry player prop.

Here are my picks and a breakdown for the Ravens vs Chiefs Week 1 matchup on September 5th at 8:20 pm ET:

Check out our complete Ravens vs Chiefs Matchup Page.

Ravens vs Chiefs Odds & Picks

UNDER 46.5 Points (-110)

I think everybody is forgetting how good these defenses were last year. The Ravens and Chiefs ranked out as the two best defenses in the NFL in 2023 by points against, averaging 16.2 and 17.0 against, respectively. So, it wasn’t a shocker when the playoff meeting between these two teams totaled just 27 points in January. According to PFF projections, the Chiefs and Ravens both project to have top-10 defenses once again.

Both of these teams were also UNDER machines to start the season last year, too. The Chiefs went UNDER 46.5 points in three of their first four games in 2023 and the Ravens went UNDER the mark in six of their first seven. I expect a similar trend to hold at the start of this campaign.

Ravens vs Chiefs Player Props

Derrick Henry OVER 69.5 Rushing Yards (-105)

In the Ravens’ final game of last season, they completely went away from what made them good all year. Baltimore gave just five touches to running backs all game, with Gus Edwards and Justice Hill combining for only 23 yards. They got a lot of flack for that back game plan and I expect to see a new mentality in this contest against the Chiefs.

With Derrick Henry in at running back, I expect the Ravens to give him the ball early and often. Keaton Mitchell is also hurt to start the season, putting a bigger emphasis on Henry at RB.

It helps that Henry has had some nice success against the Chiefs in the past. In four career games against Kansas City, King Henry has averaged 111.8 yards per game, scoring six touchdowns. In his most recent contest against the Chiefs, Henry ran for 115 yards on 17 attempts.

“He’s probably not going to follow the usual rules [with aging] that apply to running backs” - @SamMonsonNFL

Derrick Henry is a unicorn 🦄 https://t.co/biRTf5xAb9 pic.twitter.com/3OlHLQx1Po

— The 33rd Team (@The33rdTeamFB) August 27, 2024

Even in a 'down' year last season, Henry still topped 69.5 rushing yards in nine of his 17 games played. At this -105 line, that'd still be +0.5 units of profit if you bet this OVER every game last year.

I think Henry's big day and Baltimore's reliance on the run will help the game go UNDER, too, slowing the pace of play significantly.

Pick made as of Tuesday, Aug. 27 at 11:52 am ET

Chiefs vs Ravens Betting Trends