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NFL Road Teams Are Winning At Record Pace in 2019

NFL Road Teams Betting Success October 22 2019 Russell Wilson

Home-field advantage in the NFL has been a tried-and-true tradition for bettors to rely on historically but for the 2019 NFL season, home teams are breaking records for futility and have been a complete money pit to back.

Through seven weeks of the NFL season, road teams are winning AND covering at a record pace and are 58-46-1 SU (55.7 percent) in 105 games and 64-39-2 ATS (62 percent).

According to Odds Shark’s database, those are the best win percentages by road teams at this point of the NFL regular season since 1984, with the 2000 season ranking second. Props to Pamela Maldonado for putting this wacky trend on notice and being a muse to dig deeper.

For the context of how insane this trend is, here are the top 10 seasons for road team SU and ATS records through seven weeks in the NFL since 1984:

RankSeasonATSSU
1201965-39-2 (62.5%)59-46-1 (56.2%)
2200059-38-3 (60.8%)50-50 (50.0%)
3198858-39-1 (59.8%)46-51-1 (47.4%)
4199956-38-6 (59.6%)45-55 (45.0%)
5200358-41-3 (58.6%)45-57 (44.1%)
6199450-37-2 (57.5%)41-48 (46.1%)
7198955-42-1 (56.7%)44-54 (44.9%)
8200455-44-3 (55.6%)47-55 (46.1%)
9201255-46-3 (54.5%)40-64 (38.5%)
10201456-48-2 (53.8%)42-63-1 (40.0%)

Home Favorites Are Getting Crushed

You may immediately think, “C’mon man, even good teams have to play on the road. Those records above seem skewed.” Well, NFL home favorites are also crapping the bed for the average NFL bettor this season as they’re 23-45-2 ATS and 37-33 SU through 70 games (seven weeks).

That home fave moneyline record is the worst winning percentage in our database while the spread record is second-worst only to the 1999 regular season, when home faves went 19-43-3 ATS (30.6 percent) in 65 games.

See the betting records for yourself with the table below:

RankSeasonATSSU
1199919-43-3 (30.6%)42-23 (64.6%)
2201925-45-1 (35.7%)38-33 (53.5%)
3201224-40-3 (37.5%)45-22 (67.2%)
4198827-42-1 (39.1%)42-27-1 (60.9%)
5201026-39-1 (40.0%)40-26 (60.6%)
6198929-41-1 (41.4%)45-26 (63.4%)
7200030-42-2 (41.7%)45-29 (60.8%)
8200227-37-2 (42.2%)42-24 (63.6%)
9199729-39-2 (42.6%)48-22 (68.6%)
10199426-33-2 (44.1%)38-23 (62.3%)

Is There Week 8 Regression for Road Teams?

Regression to the norm is a key factor to pay attention to when insane betting records like this emerge and let’s get this out of the way: oddsmakers and sportsbooks are not stupid. They have these same betting records, see the trends occurring and will wise up to try to get this as close as possible to 50 percent before season’s end.

The dreaded regression is bound to happen but using those nine seasons referred to above (because Week 8 in 2019 hasn’t happened yet), things didn’t typically revert to the norm in Week 8, as you can see in the following table. Only in three of those nine seasons did home teams have a big rebound in Week 8 – during the 1988, 1999 and 2012 regular seasons.

For now, betting road teams blindly for Week 8 is statistically the best bang for your buck in the NFL.

RankSeasonWeek 8 ATSWeek 8 SU
220006-7-1 (46.2%)4-10 (28.6%)
319888-6 (57.1%)7-7 (50.0%)
419997-7 (50.0%)8-6 (57.1%)
520036-8 (42.9%)5-9 (35.7%)
619944-7-1 (36.4%)4-8 (33.3%)
719896-7-1 (46.2%)4-10 (28.6%)
820045-9 (35.7%)3-11 (21.4%)
9201210-4 (71.4%)8-6 (57.1%)
1020145-10 (33.3%)7-8 (46.7%)