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Free NFL Pick From Linebacker: Saints vs Ravens

Saints Ravens Linebacker Pick

New Orleans Saints @ Baltimore Ravens (BAL -2.5, O/U 50)

Two division leaders square off in Baltimore on Sunday, where the New Orleans Saints will take on Joe Flacco and the Ravens. Baltimore is listed as a 2.5-point favorite at home, but Linebacker predicts New Orleans will cover the spread and win the game outright 57.9 percent of the time. Linebacker suggests a $130 wager on the Saints +2.5 for a $100 average bettor.

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Why will New Orleans cover the spread?

  • It will be a battle of strengths on Sunday. New Orleans enters with the top-ranked scoring offense, while Baltimore owns the top-ranked scoring defense.
  • Baltimore has benefited from facing weak offenses. Buffalo (32nd), Tennessee (30th), Denver (26th) and Cleveland (23rd) are all bottom 10 in scoring.
  • The Ravens have surrendered 24 points per game to opponents top 10 in scoring (Cincinnati & Pittsburgh).
  • Drew Brees should continue his success with a full complement of weapons. Brees leads the NFL with a 77.9 percent completion rate, over six percentage points higher than second place.
  • Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram should break down a defense allowing the fewest yards per game to opposing backfields this season. Linebacker projects them to finish with 176.1 total yards.

How to bet the total in Saints @ Ravens:

Linebacker currently projects a final score of 26.2 - 23.7, totaling 49.9 points. With the OVER/UNDER set at 50, we do not recommend any play on the total at its current number.

Need-to-know stats for Saints @ Ravens:

  • 21-32, 244 yards, 1.48 TDs – Drew Brees is fourth among NFL QBs with 332 passing yards per game. While we like the Saints to win, we still expect Baltimore’s secondary to slow down Brees, limiting him to under 200 yards passing. Despite a low yardage total, Brees averaged 1.48 TDs per game in our simulations.
  • 15 touches, 104.4 total yards - Alvin Kamara
    12 touches, 71.7 total yards - Mark Ingram

    Linebacker projects Kamara to receive three more touches and gain nearly 33 more total yards than Ingram. Ingram dominated the workload in a rout against the Redskins in his first game back (18 touches vs 9 for Kamara), but this game script should provide a more even distribution between the two backs. The difference in yardage stems from Kamara’s 45.6 projected receiving yards.

  • 22-37, 248 yards, 1.35 TDs – Joe Flacco should sling it plenty. He’s second in the NFL with 44 pass attempts per game, and we project he’ll approach 40 attempts in this one. Linebacker expects his yardage will be kept in check, as New Orleans has allowed just 6.6 yards per attempt over its last two games.