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Falcons' Offense is a Problem for the 49ers' League-Worst Defense

It’s a week of big spreads and this game is no exception. The Falcons opened as 11.5-point favorites over the 49ers and, honestly, that line could be much bigger. San Francisco hasn’t won a game since Week 1 and has covered just one spread since then. Atlanta hasn’t been a great bet at home this year but the 49ers are objectively terrible – this game has blowout written all over it.

  • The Falcons are 11-3 SU in their last 14 games when hosting a West Coast team.
  • The 49ers are 0-9 SU and 0-8-1 ATS in their last 9 games after winning the previous game in a matchup.
  • The total has gone OVER in 10 of the 49ers' last 14 games on the road.

Two teams – the Browns and 49ers – have been setting a new precedent for failure this season. This was expected to be the case at the start of 2016 but no one could have predicted they’d be this bad. The point I’m trying to make here is that the ’Niners have basically zero chance to win on Sunday and could single-handedly lose the Papa Johns franchise millions of dollars.

Atlanta’s offense has proved its lethality week after week and the 49ers defense has done the exact opposite. San Fran is rated 29th in defensive DVOA and is rated dead last in its ability to stop the run. The Falcons just so happen to possess two of the most dynamic running backs in the NFL in Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman and have a chance to put up some ridiculous ground numbers against San Fran.

At 5-2 in games this season where they’ve earned over 100 rushing yards, the Falcons should be just fine this weekend against a ’Niners team that has given up over 100 in all but three games and that gives up more yards than any other team in the league. The Falcons and their elite offense soar to victory in Week 15 and pad their lead in the NFC South.  

Opening Odds & Computer Pick

Betting fans looking to side with the Atlanta Falcons in this one found them as -11.5-point favorites earlier in the week at [custom bodog-link], while the total was sitting at 51.5.

Odds Shark football prediction models picked a 40-11 result in favor of the Falcons on Sunday. Check the matchup report for any updates or pick revisions before kickoff. View the computer score prediction and who will win the pick on the moneyline for all upcoming NFL matchups here.

San Francisco 49ers vs Atlanta Falcons Matchup

Team Betting Records & Power Rankings

Atlanta bring a 8-5 record (8-5 ATS) to the Week 15 betting matchup against the 1-12 San Francisco 49ers, who are 2-10-1 ATS against the spread. Over under betting has seen Atlanta go 11-2 so far and the 49ers go 7-6. Stay Informed: follow us on Twitter for odds specials, betting line moves and Atlanta vs San Francisco injuries news.

The Falcons - 49ers odds would favor the Falcons if the betting lines were set according to power ranks. Atlanta is rated No. 3 in our latest OddsShark poll, while the 49ers sit at No. 32.

Statistical Matchup

The game also pits Atlanta's No. 1-ranked offense, averaging 32.92 PPG, against a 49ers defense that ranks No. 32 this week at 30.23 PPG. The Falcons aerial game is averaging 295.69 yards per game, more than the 49ers secondary allows through the air, 244.54 YPG per game.

In comparing defenses, the San Francisco 49ers own the league's No. 32-rated front 7 in terms of stopping the run, allowing 158 yards per game when on the road. Atlanta, on the other hand, rates No. 22 this week in generating rushing yards at home.

Recent Outings Betting Recap

Carlos Hyde went over the 100-yard mark (193) in his team's latest effort, but New York still defeated San Francisco by a score of 23-17.

Matt Ryan dusted the Rams secondary for 3 TDs last time out as the Falcons defeated Los Angeles 42-14 at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum.

Betting Trends
  • San Francisco is 1-10-1 ATS in its last 12 games
  • San Francisco is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games
  • San Francisco is 1-6-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
  • Atlanta is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games
  • Atlanta is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 7 of Atlanta's last 8 games
  • Atlanta is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games at home

Next Betting Matchups

San Francisco at Los Angeles, Saturday, December 24th
Atlanta at Carolina, Saturday, December 24th