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Two of the Best OVER Teams in the NFL Face a Low MNF Total

Week 6 will close with more of a whimper than a bang when the 1-4 San Francisco 49ers (+9.5) visit Lambeau Field for a matchup with the 2-2-1 Green Bay Packers (-9.5). The NFL had good intentions with this Monday nighter but the All-Handsome Bowl fell apart when Jimmy Garoppolo tore his ACL in Week 3 and we’ll now have to rely on C.J. Beathard and a crippled Aaron Rodgers to get our week started on the right foot (or ended, depending on your perspective).

Crippled is a bit of an overstatement about Rodgers but he did suffer a setback against the Lions last week and it’s likely he’ll have to wear a heavy knee brace on Monday. Banged up at almost every other position, Green Bay’s odds to make the playoffs are slipping and this game is approaching must-win territory as the Packers head into their bye week.

I’m coming off a loss last week but at 4-1 with my MNF picks so far, it was my first of the season. We can’t all be perfect but this week I’ll try to be a little better.

  • The 49ers are 0-11 SU in their last 11 games as a double-digit underdog.
  • Both teams are 4-1 to the OVER this season.
  • The 49ers have given up the fourth-most points per game this season (29.2).

49ers vs Packers Game Center

Injuries a Massive Problem for Both Teams

We’ve already established the Packers’ injury woes but the Niners are just as up against it, if not more so, in terms of health and that problem is most apparent in the offensive backfield. Down to their third-string running back, Alfred Morris will get the bulk of the workload on Monday and with Pierre Garcon and Marquise Goodwin both questionable for Week 6, I’m not sure who Beathard is going to throw the ball to.

Look for San Fran to rely on Morris against the Packers’ relatively weak rush defense and if he’s effective, the Niners have a shot to cover this massive number.

Mason Crosby is Getting Props

Just not from his team. After Crosby’s poor kicking performance against the Lions that saw him miss five total kicks, bookmakers have piled onto his misery by setting props specific to the Packers placekicker.

The most interesting one I dug up is whether or not he’ll miss a field goal or extra point this week with Yes sitting at +115 and the No option at -140 (available at Bovada). Honestly? Yes seems like good value. Speaking as a former placekicker, the yips are most definitely a real thing and I think Crosby has them.

Green Bay will move the ball on Monday and they will get into scoring position. Crosby will have plenty of opportunities in prime time with the eyeballs of the nation upon him. With all week to think about how he cost the Packers a win against Detroit, I think he gets inside his own head and shanks at least one kick on MNF.

Best Bet for SF vs GB: OVER 46.5

The total for this game opened at 46.5 and it hasn’t moved but with both the Packers and 49ers coming into this game with 4-1 OVER/UNDER records this season, that seems odd. Green Bay also owns an 8-2 OU record in its last 10 games going into a bye week and while that seems like a silly trend, it’s developed for a reason.

I’m also avoiding a side on this game because 9.5 seems like too many points for a banged-up Packers team but the Niners are not talented. San Fran could definitely sneak in the back door, though, and I don’t hate them on a teaser.