After starting the season with two straight losses, the Seattle Seahawks have emerged as a dark-horse contender heading into the final stretch of the season. They currently sit as the seven seed in the NFC, losing out on a tiebreaker to the Redskins for the final wild-card spot. The Seahawks could leapfrog the Redskins if they beat the 49ers this weekend and Washington loses to the Eagles.
The hype has cooled off on Nick Mullens since his coming-out party against the Raiders on Thursday night of Week 9. The 49ers are back to their ugly selves and Mullens doesn’t look like the next Joe Montana after all.
The Seahawks opened the week as 10-point home favorites in this NFC West matchup, with the total coming in at 46.
- The 49ers are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games vs the Seahawks.
- Seahawks lead the league in rushing yards per game (147.1).
- The total has gone UNDER in eight of the 49ers’ last 11 games vs the Seahawks (avg. combined score: 34.55).
My Best Bet: Seahawks to Cover
The Seahawks have absolutely dominated the 49ers in recent history, covering the spread 12 times over their past 14 meetings. This includes nine SU wins in a row in which they won by an average of 11.11 points.
The 49ers would certainly be in a better spot right now if they weren’t decimated by injures. Outside of the two obvious season-ending injuries that everyone is aware of – to Jimmy Garoppolo and Jerick McKinnon – they also have their top two targets in Pierre Garcon and Marquise Goodwin listed as questionable.
The injury bug didn’t only bite their offense. Starting safety Adrian Colbert was put on IR last month, and now his replacement DJ Reed is listed as questionable. Cornerback Jimmie Ward has been ruled out for Week 13 as well. Russell Wilson shouldn’t have much of an issue moving the ball against this depleted secondary as Jameis Winston threw for 312 yards and two TDs in the Buccaneers’ game against San Fran last week.
If attacking the 49ers’ banged-up secondary doesn’t work, the Seahawks can rely on their running game to move the ball. They lead the league in rushing yards per game with 147.1.
If the 49ers want any chance to beat the Seahawks, they’ll need to limit their turnovers. They rank second-last in the league with a turnover differential of -17. The Seahawks are much better in this category as they rank fifth in the league with a +8 differential.
The Seahawks are always a smart play at home
Whether it’s the fact that Seattle is a long trip for any team, or if it’s that their stadium is structurally built to be loud, the point still stands that the Seahawks dominate at home.
Over their last 57 games at home, the Seahawks are 45-12 SU and 32-22-3 ATS with a point differential of +9.91.
Even more impressive is their home record specifically against the 49ers. The Seahawks have covered the spread nine of the last 10 times they’ve hosted the Niners.
One of the reasons that people should be viewing the Seahawks as a dark horse right now is that four of their last five games starting this weekend will be played at home. I expect them to start this homestand with an impressive win over San Francisco.
If you want to bet on the total, take the UNDER
The total for this game is set at a higher mark than I expected, so right away I was leaning toward the UNDER.
The UNDER has hit in eight of the last 11 meetings between these teams, with an average combined score of 34.55 points.
Nick Mullens’ QB rating has dropped off a cliff since hitting the 151.9 mark in his debut. Over his last two starts against the Giants and the Bucs, he’s thrown for two TDs and four INTs for a QB rating of 73.7 and 62.1, respectively.
Considering he’ll be leading an offense that will most likely be without Pierre Garcon and Marquise Goodwin, I can’t see the Niners producing more than they did last week when they only managed to put up nine points against the league’s worst defense in Tampa Bay.
While the Seahawks will be able to score, their main weapon should be held in check. San Francisco’s defense is in the top 10 in rushing yards allowed per game and average rush yards allowed per attempt.
I see this game ending somewhere in the range of a 24-10 score, so Seattle to cover and the UNDER are both in play.
