The Green Bay Packers (13-4 SU, 12-5 ATS) hope home-field advantage is just that when they host the San Francisco 49ers (11-7, 10-8) on Saturday in the divisional round. The Packers were a perfect 8-0 this season at Lambeau Field, outscoring opponents by an average of 14 points. Their only loss in their last 15 home contests came against Tampa Bay in last year’s NFC championship game. See below for analysis and insight as well as a 49ers vs Packers prediction.
49ers vs Packers Odds & Analysis
Oddsmakers opened this one with Green Bay as a 5-point favorite. That quickly grew to -6 on some sites with early money leaning toward the Pack. The 49ers are 5-1 in their last six games, both straight up and against the spread. The total opened at 47, but that number has also gone up. The total has gone OVER in four of the last five meetings between these two teams.
Get the best 49ers vs Packers odds and lines available from our recommended sportsbooks for your favorite picks of the night.
Garoppolo Can Prove Doubters Wrong
Jimmy Garoppolo didn’t mince words when asked about heading to Lambeau Field to play the Packers this weekend, saying “we know it’s going to be a tough challenge for us, but we’re ready for it.”
His confidence is sky-high following the Niners’ upset win over Dallas in the wild-card round. And a win in Green Bay would silence those who believe Trey Lance will lead the team next year.
Garoppolo has the luxury of having a dual-threat weapon like Deebo Samuel at his disposal. Samuel led the league in yards per catch (18.2) while also averaging 6.2 yards per rush.
But there is concern on the injury front. Garoppolo suffered a slightly sprained right (throwing) shoulder vs Dallas, though he is expected to play. The news isn’t so good on the other side of the ball. Defensive end Nick Bosa suffered a concussion, while linebacker Fred Warner injured his ankle last week. They are both questionable for Saturday’s game.
Rodgers Hopes 4th Time Is A Charm
The Green Bay Packers go into this game as the betting favorites to win the Super Bowl at +350. Aaron Rodgers is the odds-on favorite to win MVP (-500). And while he’s won both of those things in the past, one thing he hasn’t achieved in his Hall of Fame career is a playoff victory vs the 49ers.
He’s 0-3 against the team he grew up cheering for, with his most recent loss coming in the 2019 conference championship game. Rodgers and the Packers did beat San Francisco back in Week 3 on a last-second field goal. Wide receiver Davante Adams had 132 receiving yards and a touchdown in that game while Green Bay’s defense held the Niners to just 67 yards on the ground.
The team will be well rested coming off a first-round bye, meaning nagging injuries shouldn’t be much of a concern.
49ers vs Packers Pick & Insights
49ers: Keys To Cover
The strength of the 49ers is their ability to pressure quarterbacks and if they can make life miserable for Rodgers, they will have a chance in this one. They gave up the sixth-fewest passing yards per game (206.5). But they will need both Bosa and Warner to be fit to play – Bosa finished fourth in the league with 15.5 sacks and Warner led the team with 137 tackles. If they are both active for this game, it will make your 49ers vs Packers pick that much tougher.
Packers: Keys To Cover
Get off to a quick start and force the 49ers to play from behind. If the Packers can do that, it will put pressure on Garoppolo to beat them with his arm in a very frigid and intimidating environment. Meanwhile, if the Packers offensive line can contain San Francisco’s front four to allow Rodgers time in the pocket, you will likely be rewarded if you lay money on Green Bay.
Odds Shark’s Computer 49ers vs Packers Prediction: Packers -4
Check out more of Odds Shark’s signature NFL computer picks, plus our favorite sportsbooks that serve football customers.
Doc's Picks Service
Need more winning picks? Get $60 worth of premium member picks from Doc’s Sports – a recognized leader and trusted name in sports handicapping since 1971.
Odds Shark Staff Thu, May 12, 1:37pm