Walking Wounded: Seahawks Banged Up, Home Dogs Week 17

Just 2-2 SU and ATS over their past four games, the 49ers are not playing their best ball right now but did eke out a 34-31 win against the Rams last Saturday night. San Francisco is 12-3 SU and 8-6-1 ATS this season.

Already missing several key players, the Seahawks lost their top two running backs to injury during a 27-13 home loss to Arizona. Seattle heads into the final week 11-4 SU but one of the riskiest ATS bets at 7-7-1.

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

This game originally opened as a pick’em, but injuries to Seahawks players now have the 49ers pegged as 3-point road favorites. Seattle’s moneyline opened at -110 but has flipped to +155 or higher at books we track. The consensus point total opened at and remains 47.

How strong is the NFC West this season? If the 49ers win at Seattle on Sunday night, they’ll win the division and become the NFC’s No. 1 seed with home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. If the 49ers lose at Seattle, they’ll have to play a road game as a wild-card team.

A Seattle Week 17 win would mean a season sweep of the 49ers and the NFC West crown. Whether or not they can snatch the NFC’s No. 1 seed depends on:

- A Saints Week 17 loss AND Packers 1-1 finish the final two weeks of the season
OR
- A Saints Week 17 loss AND Packers 0-2 finish the final two weeks of the season AND Vikings winning their final two games.

Simple, right?

San Francisco News & Notes

Defensive lineman Dee Ford will miss Week 17 due to a nagging hamstring injury. Fellow lineman Jullian Taylor and safety Jaquiski Tartt are questionable.

After fumbling twice in the Week 15 loss to the Falcons, Matt Breida didn’t earn one offensive touch against the Rams. The two-headed committee of Raheem Mostert and Tevin Coleman combined for 88 yards and a touchdown on 16 carries. Kyle Shanahan has to be drooling at the possibilities after Arizona’s Kenyan Drake rushed 24 times for 166 yards and two touchdowns against Seattle.

If you strip out the 48-46 slugfest in New Orleans, Jimmy Garoppolo has averaged 204 passing yards in three of his past four games with only three passing touchdowns and two interceptions. It’s becoming more evident that his reliance on George Kittle in the passing game may be hindering the evolution and balance of the 49ers passing game. Don’t be surprised if San Francisco leans on the run this weekend, which could make the UNDER tempting.

Seattle News & Notes

Seahawks running back Chris Carson has a fractured hip and is out for the season. His 1,230 rush yards account for 59.3 percent of Seattle’s rush production this season. Just like that, poof, Carson’s gone. Typically it would be next man up, but the team’s RB2 Rashaad Penny is on injured reserve and RB3 C.J. Prosise broke his arm in the loss to the Cardinals. Seattle’s now desperate to fill multiple running back positions. How desperate? Well ...

Adding on to earlier NFL Network report, Marshawn Lynch is scheduled to meet today with Seahawks’ HC Pete Carroll and take a physical, per source.

“Both sides are optimistic he is back wearing 24”, per source. And that would mean Lynch and Seahawks vs. 49ers for NFC West title.

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) December 23, 2019

One other notable Seahawks injury is Duane Brown. The offensive tackle will miss the next two to three weeks due to a knee injury and surgery. So, whichever running back committee Pete Carroll elects to implement will be running behind a downgraded O-line that has to contend with San Francisco’s pass rush, which sacked Russell Wilson five times in the first meeting.

Seattle’s offense converted just one of 12 third downs in the loss to Arizona and the defense allowed 6.0 yards per play to a Cardinals offense that was missing Kyler Murray for half the game due to a hamstring injury.

When the Seahawks beat San Francisco back in Week 10, Seattle managed to overcome four turnovers and Carson rushed 25 times for 89 yards with a touchdown. This weekend’s matchup is apples to oranges with Seattle hobbled.

Betting Pick: 49ers -3

I would suggest hitting this line early because one shouldn’t be surprised to see it rise in the coming days. The Seahawks have been playing with fire all season, evident in their 7-7-1 ATS record, but this many injuries this late in the season, with the division on the line, is just too much for Russell Wilson to overcome.