San Francisco 49ers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

In most instances, a fan base’s favorite player is the backup quarterback. How that idiom applies to Tampa Bay this season varies from week to week. After on-again, off-again starter Ryan Fitzpatrick tossed three more interceptions against the Giants, Jameis Winston came off the bench to rally the Buccaneers within three points, twice, when Tampa trailed by 17 points in the second half. However, Winston ran out of time in the 38-35 road loss that dropped the reeling Bucs to 3-7 overall. Tampa earned the +3 ATS push at New York and is 3-6-1 against the spread this season, but just 1-6-1 ATS in its past eight games.

San Francisco entered its Week 11 bye 2-8 overall and 3-7 against the spread. The 49ers are 1-1 SU and ATS with Nick Mullens as the starting quarterback. They’re averaging 28.3 points per game with him lined up under center.

Tampa Bay opened as a 3-point favorite, but that grew to -3.5 Sunday night, while San Francisco’s moneyline is +150. The point total opened at 52.5 and quickly jumped to 55 as OVER bettors hammered the early O/U.

49ers vs Tampa Bay Game Center

WHAT WE LEARNED: WEEK 11

Buccaneers – We learned Tampa Bay’s defense still stinks, but that under the right conditions, its offense is one of the NFL’s best.

Rookie Saquon Barkley, who had been held under 50 rushing yards in four of his previous six games and averaged just 61.6 yards per game during that stretch, set a new career high with 142 rush yards on 27 carries and three touchdowns against the Buccaneers.

On the flip side, Winston came off the bench to complete 12 of 16 passes for 199 yards and two touchdowns with an interception in the second half.  Lost in the quarterback carousel was Peyton Barber setting a new career high with 106 rushing yards on 18 carries for 5.9 yards per pop.

Tight end O.J. Howard left the game in the fourth quarter. Be sure to keep tabs on his injury status.

49ers – After shocking the Raiders in his NFL debut, Nick Mullens came back down to earth somewhat in his second start against the Giants prior to the 49ers’ Week 11 bye. Although the undrafted free agent tossed two interceptions in his second start, he completed four or more passes to four different receivers. To trust that many receivers this early is notable.

Running back Matt Breida continues to show glimpses of stardom as he rushed 17 times for 101 yards against the Giants and is averaging 5.6 yards per carry this season.

NEXT LEVEL TRENDS: EARLY BIRD SPECIAL

It’s always interesting to note when a West Coast team has to play in the early window on Sundays. However, the 10 a.m. local time kickoff hasn’t appeared to impact ATS results. Since 2015, West Coast teams are 36-38-3 ATS when playing in the early window.

However, West Coast teams coming out of the bye, like the 49ers this week, are 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS playing in the early window during that same period of time.

TAMPA, FLORIDA FORECAST

Partly cloudy with temps in the low 80s with 76 percent humidity. So, warm and muggy. Winds shouldn’t play a factor.

After Tampa Bay canned Chandler Catanzaro last week, Cairo Santos made his Buccaneers debut and connected on all five extra points. He did not attempt a field goal in Week 11, but finished 5-for-6 on field goals and extra points while a temporary member of the Rams earlier this season. San Francisco’s Robbie Gould is 21-for-22 on field goals and 19-for-20 on extra points. He hasn’t missed a kick since early October.

MY LEAN

The 49ers are 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games on the East Coast. However, we’re still getting to know Mullens and Breida, right? I fade that data point. The data point I embrace is this:

Combined, the Buccaneers and 49ers have allowed 46 passing touchdowns with only three interceptions. Tampa Bay has allowed 14 more scores on the ground. If Breida remains healthy for all four quarters, he’ll eat very well.

I’ll take the OVER.