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Last of the Unbeaten: 49ers Favored by a Touchdown Over Seahawks

The 49ers improved to 8-0 SU with their Thursday night road win at Arizona but fell to 5-3 ATS after Andy Isabella’s 88-yard catch and run to the house with less than five minutes to go in the game helped his Cardinals cover +10 .

Seattle -4 played down to the level of its competition but managed to eke out a SU and ATS win in a 40-34 overtime victory over the Buccaneers. The Seahawks improved to 7-2 SU and 4-5 ATS this season.

Matchup Information
  • Seattle Seahawks vs San Francisco 49ers (Matchup Report)
  • Date/Time: November 11, 8:15 p.m. ET
  • TV Coverage: ESPN
  • Opening Odds: San Francisco -5.5 | O/U 44.5 (Line History)

Opening Odds Analysis

The 49ers opened as 5.5-point home favorites, but the line ticked up to San Francisco -6. Seattle’s moneyline opened at +208 and the point total at 44.5. The total has gone OVER in 13 of the Seahawks’ last 18 games with an average combined score of 53.06.

Seattle has been a road dog of 5.5 or 6 points only one other time since 2011. San Francisco has been a home favorite of 5.5 or 6 points twice over the past two seasons but is 0-2 ATS in those matchups. The 49ers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games in that situation.

The UNDER has hit in five of the Seahawks’ last seven road games against the NFC West and in four of the Seahawks’ last five games before a bye.

Seattle News & Notes

On paper, the Buccaneers possess the league’s best rush defense, but that’s only because their secondary allows 294 pass yards per game. So, when you see that Seattle’s Chris Carson became the first running back to rush for more than 100 yards against Tampa Bay’s defense this season, remember to peel away the statistical layers. 

It’ll be interesting to see how Russell Wilson, who passed for 378 yards and a career-high five touchdowns against one of the league’s worst defenses, will adjust his game against the Niners’ league-best pass defense that has allowed 118 pass yards per game over the past three contests.

The good news is top receiver Tyler Lockett and rookie D.K. Metcalf are currently playing their best football and combined for 19 receptions, 275 receiving yards and three touchdowns last Sunday. Seattle has converted 67.6 percent of its red-zone trips into touchdowns, fifth-best in the league.

The Seahawks offense claimed wide receiver Josh Gordon off the waiver wire last week and he passed his physical over the weekend. He’s on schedule to start against the 49ers on Monday night. In six games with the Patriots this season, he caught 20 passes for 287 yards and a touchdown.

San Francisco News & Notes

UPDATE: George Kittle is OUT for Monday night’s game.

The short week got the best of the 49ers’ lauded defense. Facing one of the worst offensive lines and a new Cardinals running back who had three days to learn the playbook, San Francisco’s rush defense allowed Kenyan Drake to rush for 110 yards on 7.3 yards per carry.

While the Niners pass rush did finish with three sacks, the defense allowed Kyler Murray to complete 17 of 24 passes with two touchdowns and failed to force one turnover from a team expected to earn a top-10 draft pick. It was a far cry from the effort they displayed in their blowout win over Carolina.

The rush defense definitely needs to play better facing the Seahawks’ eighth-ranked rush offense that averages 132 yards per game.

On a night the defense sputtered, the 49ers offense shined. Pro Bowl tight end George Kittle took a helmet to the knee but returned and finished with six receptions for 79 yards and a touchdown. Meanwhile, the trade for Emmanuel Sanders appears to be paying dividends early. The receiver led the team with seven receptions for 112 yards and a touchdown.

Jimmy Garoppolo finished 28-for-37 with four touchdowns and no turnovers. Seattle’s secondary allows the fifth-most pass yards per game at 278.1 yards per contest. So, we should expect Jimmy G. to attack from the air after watching the Buccaneers game film.

The 49ers converted 11 of 17 third downs against the Cardinals and are at 48.6 percent for the season, which ranks third overall.

On the injury front, linebacker Kwon Alexander tore his pec in the win over the Cardinals and will miss the rest of the season. He was considered one of the top players at his position.

Betting Pick: Seahawks +6.5

An inactive George Kittle is a crushing blow to the 49ers offense. The Seahawks are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games as underdog. Russell Wilson may not win this game, but he often seems to find a way to make the score snug late in the fourth quarter.

Shark Bites
  • The Seahawks are 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games before a bye.
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of the 49ers’ last 7 games at night.
  • The Seahawks are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games.