After starting the season 0-2 straight up and 0-1-1 against the spread, Seattle was 4-1 SU and ATS in its previous five games heading into Week 9. The Seahawks failed to extend the hot stretch as 1-point home favorites against the Chargers. The 25-17 loss dropped Pete Carroll’s crew to 4-4 overall and 4-3-1 against the spread.
Jared Goff rallied the Rams back from a 21-point deficit but ran out of steam late as Los Angeles suffered its first defeat of the season, 45-35 to the Saints. While they’re 8-1 overall, their inability to cover -2 on the road dropped the Rams to 4-5 ATS.
Los Angeles opened as an 8.5-point home favorite before emotional Rams backers pushed that needle to -10, which has become an early-in-the-week consensus spread of the sportsbooks. Seattle’s moneyline is +385 and the point total is 51.5. It’s quite a spread considering just last month the ’Hawks hung 31 points on the reeling Rams defense and covered 7.5 points in Seattle.
- The Seahawks are 1-5 ATS in their last six games on the road vs the Rams.
- The Rams are 5-0 SU in their last five games as a double-digit favorite.
- The Seahawks are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a double-digit underdog.
WHAT WE LEARNED: WEEK 9
Seahawks – After rushing eight times for 40 yards against the Chargers, running back Chris Carson missed most of the final three quarters due to a hip injury. This is important heading into Week 10 because not only had the second-year back out of Oklahoma State averaged 96 rushing yards per game over the past month, but he posted 116 yards on 19 carries against the Rams four weeks ago. It would be a huge loss if he were inactive.
This is the 22nd time since 1989 that Seattle has been a road dog of 10 or more points but the first time it’s been against an NFC West rival. The Seahawks are 0-22 straight up and 8-14 against the spread in those previous contests.
Rams – Like the Bengals earlier this season, the Rams defense continued to play with fire and like the Bengals it eventually burned them in the loss column. Before they allowed New Orleans to hang 45 points on them, the Rams defense had allowed their four toughest opponents to date – Green Bay, Minnesota, Seattle and the L.A. Chargers – to average 28 points per game or nearly six points more than their season average, 22.2. When you factor in the Saints’ 45-point performance, Los Angeles has allowed 31.4 points per game in five of its nine contests this season.
While Los Angeles allowed 10.7 points per game in its other four, the effort came against teams with a combined record of 8-26 this season.
NEXT LEVEL TRENDS: ARE YOU DOWN WITH T.O.P.?
Seattle dominated the Chargers in time of possession 36 to 24 and yet lost and failed to cover. This bucked an interesting trend. Since 2015, teams that have possessed the ball for 35 or more minutes in a game are 204-55-4 straight up and 187-66-10 against the spread.
LOS ANGELES, CA FORECAST
Sunny with temperatures in the mid-70s and no humidity. In other words, Southern California continues to boast perfect weather.
Sebastian Janikowski missed his first field-goal attempt since September when a 51-yard kick hit the right upright. He later connected from 44 yards out and is 9-for-13 on the season and 23-for-23 on extra points. Los Angeles’ Greg Zuerlein also missed from 51 yards out in Week 9, but made his two other attempts and all three of his extra points. He’s 11-for-13 on field goals and 11-for-11 on extra points in an injury-abridged season.
MY PICK
This is the third time Sean McVay’s Rams have been home favorites of 10 or more points. They’ve covered both previous times and won by an average of 30 points. Last season, Seattle won and covered at Los Angeles and the Rams won and covered on the Seahawks’ home turf.
Considering the spread opened at Rams -8.5, nobody should be shocked if the Rams -10 shrunk to -8 or even -7 by Sunday, right? I think the Seattle money will come.
Seattle to cover -10 and the OVER.
