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Sunday Setup: Revenge for Falcons?

With four games under every team’s belt, football bettors now have enough of a sample size to start formulating selections based on this year’s performance instead of just speculation.

But while that’s a good starting point, as is always the case in betting football there is more to handicapping than just the numbers.

Here are some angles and updates to consider as you round out your card heading into Sunday for Week 5.

Revenge Weekend

Last season, the New England Patriots and Atlanta Falcons earned playoff byes with the top seeds in the AFC and NFC, respectively. They each were eliminated from the playoffs, at home, in the divisional round; by the New York Jets and Green Bay Packers, who they are playing at home against this week. If you believe in teams circling their calendars for big revenge spots, New England -8.5 and Atlanta +6 (at TopBet) could be worth plays.

Reverse Line Movement

Preferred ATS by just under 70% in the OddsShark Matchup poll, San Diego over Denver is one of the most popular picks on the board this week. But despite their popularity, the Chargers opened as a 6-point favorite and are down to being a 3.5-point favorite at 5Dimes. When the public loves one side and the line moves in the opposite direction, the unpopular side sometimes has some value that casual bettors overlook.

Brandon Jacobs and Justin Tuck Doubtful

Though New York shouldn’t need to be at 100% to beat Seattle, they were already pretty banged up, and they could lose another key player on each side of the ball with Brandon Jacobs (knee) and Justin Tuck (groin) each listed as doubtful this week. Even with the injury announcement, the Giants are a 10-point home favorite at Bovada.

Heavy rains in Jacksonville

While the total is a bit low at 37 at BetOnline, the under may still be worth consideration in Jacksonville’s home game against Cincinnati this week. With two rookie quarterbacks under center and heavy rainstorms with winds of up to 20 MPH on the forecast, expect both teams to dial up a lot of running plays and try to win the field position battle.