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Super Bowl 53 Betting Picks, Trends and Stats Primer

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The Super Bowl is an underdog’s game and it kind of makes sense. The game attracts an incredible amount of betting action — much more than any other game from any other sport — and all that public money has the impact to move a line in a way that maybe it shouldn’t be moving. Perhaps because of all that public action, underdogs are on an incredible 13-4 ATS run in the Super Bowl. Underdogs have also been a big money bet to win the Super Bowl outright as they have straight-up wins in six of the past seven games and eight of the last 11.

So what effect does all that public money have on Super Bowl 53 between the Patriots and Rams? Well, it’s been quite dramatic as the Rams briefly opened as a -1 favorite at some books and EVEN at others but now find themselves at +2.5 at most books. That’s a pretty incredible swing.

With all that money coming in on the Patriots and the Super Bowl being the ultimate “fade the public” game, does this make the Rams the bet to make? For some, I’m sure it does, but it’s important to keep in mind that this matchup is completely unrelated to any of the previous 17 Super Bowls. League-wide trends are interesting but if the Rams do win or cover the spread, it will be based on their ability as a really good team, not the battle between sharps and squares.

No matter what way you’re betting on Sunday, I want to thank everyone who consumed my NFL content this season. Hopefully the stats and trends I provided in the Betting Primer each week helped you make a few bucks and hopefully you were able to ignore any of the garbage picks I gave out. But, if you only took my advice on the ones that were correct, then you would have had a very profitable season. Anyways, on to the good stuff!

My best bets for Super Bowl 53:

Here’s my best bets for Super Bowl 53 using Bovada lines from Friday, February 1:

  • Patriots -2.5 (more on this pick here)
  • OVER 54.5 receiving yards for Gronk
  • OVER 127.5 total rushing yards for the Rams
  • Gronk to win MVP +3000 
  • Tom Brady to win MVP +125
  • First Half:  UNDER 27.5
  • Highest Scoring Half: Second Half -160
  • Most Penalty Yards: Rams -170
  • Result of the First Patriots Coach’s Challenge: Play Overturned -140
  • Coin Toss: Heads
  • National Anthem: OVER 1:47

Stats and Trends for Patriots vs rams:

  • The underdog is 13-4 ATS in the last 17 Super Bowls.
  • The Rams are 7-0 SU and ATS in games refereed by John Parry.
  • In the eight Super Bowl appearances in the Brady/Belichick era, the Patriots have scored a total of just three points in the 1st quarter!
  • The Patriots are averaging 38.7 points over their last three games.
  • The Rams allowed 30 or more points on seven occasions this season.
  • The total has gone OVER in the Patriots' last three Super Bowls. The average combined score in those games is 62.6.
  • The total has gone OVER in seven of the Patriots' last eight games in the playoffs.
  • The Rams are averaging 193.5 rushing yards with a total of eight rushing touchdowns over their last four games.
  • The Rams allowed the second-most receiving yards to opposing tight ends this season.
  • In their 13 wins this season, the Patriots have a win margin of 14.54 points.
  • Tom Brady's last three Super Bowls: Average of 433 passing yards with nine total TDs and three INTs.
  • Patriots opponents are 6-for-6 in the red zone with TD scores in the playoffs.
  • The Rams’ current four-game ATS cover streak is their longest of the season.
  • The Rams are 4-0 ATS in their last four games.
  • Tom Brady is relatable because he's sometimes seen wearing jeans.
  • The Patriots are 3-0 ATS in their last three games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Patriots' last 11 games. (Avg combined score: 45.91)
  • The Patriots are 37-9 SU in their last 46 games as favorite.
  • The Patriots are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games in the Super Bowl.
  • The Patriots are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games in the playoffs.
  • The Rams are 3-12 SU and 3-11-1 ATS in their last 15 games as underdog.
  • The Rams are 8-0 SU in their last eight games vs AFC teams.
  • The Patriots are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs the Rams.
  • The Patriots are 5-0 SU in their last five games vs the Rams. (Avg winning margin: 16.4)