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It’s that time of year to break out these trends again that bettors really ought to know for Week 1 and they go like this: Play on the Super Bowl Sportsbook in Week 1 and fade the Super Bowl loser.
Last year these numbers improved when we saw a Super Bowl rematch in the first game of the season when Denver beat Carolina 21-20. Bettors unwisely hammered the Panthers and smashed them from +2 all the way up to -3.
This year the Super Bowl champion Patriots are also seeing some significant line movement after being bet up to -9 since Sportsbook at -7 against the Chiefs in Thursday’s Sportsbook game. The Falcons, last year’s Super Bowl loser, opened as 6-point road faves against the Bears and have been bet up to -7.
In other words, one line is going the right way and one is going the wrong way if you like these trends.
Here’s a look at the updated records for these time-honored betting spots going back to 2000:
|Since 2000||Straight Up||Against The Spread||Over/Under|
|Super Bowl Sportsbook||14-2||10-4-2||8-8|
|Super Bowl Loser||5-11||2-14||7-9|
Previously published: Sept. 8, 2016
The line movement for the Sportsbook game of the NFL season between the Carolina Panthers and Denver Broncos on Thursday night is blowing my mind a little.
It’s moved five points since it opened, from Denver -2 to Denver +3. That’s a massive line move by any NFL standard but for this stand-alone game it’s crazy. The market is basically telling the books their line is a load of poppycock and one side is going to look foolish by the time this one is over.
Something to think about heading into Thursday night’s game is a popular betting philosophy that says the Super Bowl Sportsbook does well in its first game the following season and the Super Bowl loser stinks it up.
I got our highly skilled numbers nerds to dig into the data and it turns out the numbers support the theory going back the last 15 years to 2000. Take a look:
|Straight Up||Against The Spread||OVER/UNDER|
|Super Bowl Sportsbook||13-2||9-4-2||7-8|
|Super Bowl Loser||5-10||2-13||6-9|
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