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Super Bowl Betting Trends That Help In Week 1

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It’s that time of year to break out these trends again that bettors really ought to know for Week 1 and they go like this: Play on the Super Bowl winner in Week 1 and fade the Super Bowl loser. 

Last year these numbers improved when we saw a Super Bowl rematch in the first game of the season when Denver beat Carolina 21-20. Bettors unwisely hammered the Panthers and smashed them from +2 all the way up to -3. 

This year the Super Bowl champion Patriots are also seeing some significant line movement after being bet up to -9 since opening at -7 against the Chiefs in Thursday’s opening game. The Falcons, last year’s Super Bowl loser, opened as 6-point road faves against the Bears and have been bet up to -7. 

In other words, one line is going the right way and one is going the wrong way if you like these trends. 

Here’s a look at the updated records for these time-honored betting spots going back to 2000: 

Super Bowl Winner/Loser Trends For Week 1
Since 2000Straight UpAgainst The SpreadOver/Under
Super Bowl Winner14-210-4-28-8
Super Bowl Loser5-112-147-9

 

Previously published: Sept. 8, 2016


The line movement for the opening game of the NFL season between the Carolina Panthers and Denver Broncos on Thursday night is blowing my mind a little.

It’s moved five points since it opened, from Denver -2 to Denver +3. That’s a massive line move by any NFL standard but for this stand-alone game it’s crazy. The market is basically telling the books their line is a load of poppycock and one side is going to look foolish by the time this one is over. 

Something to think about heading into Thursday night’s game is a popular betting philosophy that says the Super Bowl winner does well in its first game the following season and the Super Bowl loser stinks it up. 

I got our highly skilled numbers nerds to dig into the data and it turns out the numbers support the theory going back the last 15 years to 2000. Take a look: 

Super Bowl Betting Trends for Week 1 Since 2000
 Straight UpAgainst The SpreadOVER/UNDER
Super Bowl Winner13-29-4-27-8
Super Bowl Loser5-102-136-9

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