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Super Bowl Pick: Seahawks vs Steelers Rematch, per Prediction Machine

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Super Bowl LI will be a rematch of Super Bowl XL, if one predictive score modelling site’s preseason analysis proves accurate this NFL season.

The most likely computer simulation from the Predictalator – the successful analysis engine produced at PredictionMachine.com which has already played the 2016 NFL season 50,000 times before it's actually played – is a rematch of the Seattle Seahawks versus the Pittsburgh Steelers. That result came up 55.5% of the time and by an average score of 27-24.

“While a matchup between Russell Wilson and Ben Roethlisberger would undoubtedly provide some fireworks, it actually only occurs in 2.9% of simulations, which is a testament to the parity in the league this season,” said Rob Pizzola, the site’s new general manager. In fact, a total of eight teams have at least a five percent chance to win the Super Bowl this season, which is double the amount of teams from a year ago.

The site released its annual NFL Preview today and it’s a document that generates interest among both the sports betting and daily fantasy audiences. The preview includes preseason power rankings, over-under win total projections, fantasy rankings and much more.

There are four teams in the NFC that have a greater than 6.3% chance to win Super Bowl 51. The Green Bay Packers are the second most likely team to hoist the Lombardi Trophy at 9.7%, while the Arizona Cardinals (8.9%) and Carolina Panthers (6.3%) can also be considered legitimate Super Bowl threats.

The Cardinals actually may be the most well-rounded team in the NFL—sitting atop the Predictalator’s Power Rankings—but a tougher schedule and age concerns leave them with a slightly worse chance of being the last team standing in February.

Oddsmakers such as Bovada have installed the New England Patriots as the Super Bowl favorite, but they trail the Steelers in actual Super Bowl likelihood due to health and suspension issues. At a projected 6.0% to win the Super Bowl, the Patriots can be considered one of the worst future bets on the board at the price that is currently being offered.

Surprisingly enough though, the software – created by data scientist Paul Bessire - is a big fan of the Patriots defense this season, ranking them no worse than seventh against the run or the pass.

OddsShark.com will be comparing notes with PredictionMachine.com this year and tracking its success. The full-season preview includes projected scores for all 256 games this season (for example the Packers will beat Jacksonville 28-23 in Week 1, covering the current 4-point spread), win total picks, futures picks, in-depth team analysis, NFL team rankings, and fantasy football rankings.