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Falcons open as heavy favorites vs bumbling Bucs

The Atlanta Falcons may be getting hot at the right time. After dropping three straight in the month of October, the Falcons have climbed back to 6-4 SU this season and are in prime position to get back to the playoffs. Atlanta opened as a 10-point favorite versus its NFC South rival, Tampa Bay.

  • The Buccaneers are 5-1 SU and ATS in their last six games in November.
  • Tampa Bay is 1-6 SU in its last seven games on the road.
  • Atlanta is 6-2 SU in its last 8 home games.

The Falcons still haven’t looked right this season despite their winning record. No need to dredge up last year’s Super Bowl collapse but the Falcons have dropped some stinkers this season (Miami, Buffalo) that can’t be overlooked. Atlanta has gone 2-5 ATS in its last seven games and 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games as a double-digit favorite. Bettors may want to steer clear of any heavy spread from the Falcons until their defense can consistently hold teams to less than 20 points, which has only happened twice this season.

The Buccaneers, on the other hand, are going for their third win in a row after kicking around the Dolphins and Jets. Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick may not be the Bucs’ first choice at QB but really, when has he ever been first choice? Fitzy is on his seventh NFL team in his career and is showing no signs of replacing Jameis Winston any time soon. The good news for Tampa backers is they’re 3-1 SU and ATS in their last four games against Atlanta. The bad news is the Falcons are WAY better in the passing game than Miami and New York and the Buccaneers allow over 275 yards through the air (second-worst in the league). Stay away from any moneyline wager for Tampa and take the points.

The total opened at 49 in this divisional game and trends are pointing toward an OVER. The total has gone OVER in four of Tampa’s five road games this season. Not to be outdone, the total has gone OVER in 12 of the Falcons’ last 15 games at home (dating back to last season).

Opening Odds & Computer Pick

Oddsmakers at Bovada had the Atlanta Falcons as 8.5-point favorites in the game, while the betting total was sitting at 48.5.

OddsShark computer NFL score prediction models picked a possible 33-13 win for the Falcons on Sunday. That score may change during the week, if injury or weather factors alter the numbers, so check the NFL picks page before game time. View the computer score prediction and who will win the pick on the moneyline for all upcoming NFL matchups here.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons Matchup

Team Betting Records & Power Rankings

Betting fans of the Atlanta Falcons have seen them go 6-4 and 4-6 ATS so far this season, while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are at 4-6 and 3-6-1 ATS. In OVER/UNDER totals betting, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 5-5, while the Atlanta Falcons are 4-6. Stay Informed: follow us on Twitter for odds specials, betting line moves and Atlanta vs Tampa Bay injuries news.

This game matches up the No. 12 (Atlanta Falcons) and the No. 20 (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) teams in the league, according to our current NFL Power Rankings at OddsShark.

Statistical Matchup

Offensively, the game matches up the Atlanta Falcons' No. 13-ranked offense (23.1 PPG) against a Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense that ranks No. 17 at 22.8 PPG. The Falcons passing attack has averaged 245.4 yards per game, less than the Buccaneers give up through the air (276.3 YPG on average).

Defensively, the Buccaneers feature the league's No. 29-rated road run defense, allowing 138.4 yards per game. The Falcons, meanwhile, rank No. 11 in rushing offense at home.

Recent Outings Betting Recap

The Buccaneers' last action saw them get a 2-TD performance from Ryan Fitzpatrick as they handed Miami a 30-20 loss at Hard Rock Stadium.

Matt Ryan threw a pair of TD passes in Atlanta's last match, defeating Seattle 34-31 in Week 11 action on Monday.

Betting Trends
  • Tampa Bay is 2-6-1 ATS in its last 9 games
  • Tampa Bay is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
  • Tampa Bay is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
  • Tampa Bay is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
  • Atlanta is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
  • Atlanta is 12-5 SU in its last 17 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 17 of Atlanta's last 24 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 7 games

Next Betting Matchups

Tampa Bay at Green Bay, Sunday, December 3
Atlanta home to Minnesota, Sunday, December 3