When bettors looked at the schedule and saw the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Chicago Bears set to play in Week 4, the assumption was that neither of these teams would be moving the needle in the NFC. Well, with a combined 4-2 SU record and surprising upsets so far, this tilt has become one of the marquee games in the first month of the season. The Bucs committed four turnovers in their loss to the Steelers and now travel to the Windy City to face a Bears squad that is second in the NFL in taking the ball away.
Da Bears opened as 3-point faves over the high-flying Buccaneers with a total of 46.5.
- Ryan Fitzpatrick leads the NFL with 1,230 passing yards in 2018.
- Chicago is 10-3-1 ATS in its last 14 games at home.
- The UNDER has hit in 5 of the Bears’ last 6 games.
Buccaneers vs Bears Game Center
Outside of Chiefs, Buccaneers Own Best Passing Attack
6,500 yards. That’s the passing yards pace Ryan Fitzpatrick is on in 2018 (5,540 is the record in a season) after throwing for 1,230 yards in three games. Can I legitimately say that Fitzpatrick will top 6K with a straight face? Well, no, but it does put the Tampa Bay coaching staff (and bettors) in a bit of a predicament with Jameis Winston coming off suspension and potentially taking his starting job back.
When the Buccaneers faced the Steelers in Week 3, Fitzpatrick showed the good side and the bad side of having him as your starting quarterback as he threw for three touchdowns and three interceptions. Fitzy now ranks second in the NFL in passing touchdowns (11) and second in interceptions (5), which sounds awfully similar to a Jameis Winston stat line.
The Buccaneers offense has been a sight to behold through three games as they’re tied for third in the NFL in points per game while averaging an obscene 400.7 passing yards per game. They’ll need that passing barrage to continue vs the Bears this week as Chicago ranks in the top five in rushing yards allowed while ranking 13th in passing yards allowed.
Both of these teams were dumpster fires over the last few seasons so some of the betting trends can be misleading. For what it’s worth, these two teams have played each other four times over the past four seasons with the record at 2-2 SU and ATS. At this point, neither team has a clear edge outside of the Bears getting to play at home.
Can Bears Defense Continue to Bail Out Trubisky?
For anyone who has watched the Bears so far this season, it’s easy to see where their weakness lies and that’s at quarterback. Mitchell Trubisky may end up being a decent QB in the NFL but for this season, he still has a lot of work to do. The second-year signal-caller is only averaging 197 passing yards per game and is averaging 5.68 yards per attempt, which ranks him 26th among starting quarterbacks.
That makes you ask, “How is this team 2-1 SU?” It’s because the defense is playing on another level as they lead the NFL with 14 sacks, are second in interceptions (8) and are only allowing 18.3 points per game (ranked eighth).
The injection of Khalil Mack has made this group a turnover machine as he is responsible for four sacks and three forced fumbles. With the defense rocking, it makes the Bears a very intriguing spread wager as they’re 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 at home. Now, it’s worth noting that they were only faves in five of those games but comparing the 2018 version of the Bears to last season is a fool’s errand. This defense could turn FitzMagic into FitzTragic in a hurry with the way they rush the passer, which is why I’m backing the Bears.
Bears’ Offensive Woes Could Lead to UNDER
The total opened at 46.5 and I’m leaning heavily to the UNDER in this one. The UNDER has hit in five of the Bears’ last six games (dating back to last season) with an average combined score of 34 points per game. Tampa’s point totals have decreased each week this season, their offensive output isn’t sustainable and the Bears are coming off back-to-back weeks of keeping opponents below 20 points.
My Pick is...
To take the UNDER. Trubisky is too hard to count on to expect a competent offense and I think the Bears defense can get to Fitzpatrick and will overwhelm Tampa Bay’s offensive line and limit the Bucs to 20 points or less. We saw a glimpse of FitzTragic on Monday Night Football and with Tampa going into Soldier Field on a short week, I expect the Bears to keep the Bucs offense in check.
