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Saints can cushion their lead in NFC South with win over bumbling Bucs

Divisional play is in full swing in the NFC South in Week 9 when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers arrive at Mercedes-Benz Superdome to play the New Orleans Saints. The division-leading Saints are on a five-game winning streak and make a strong case to cover, opening as the favorite by a touchdown.

Shark Bites
  • Tampa Bay is 0-4-1 ATS in its last five games.
  • New Orleans is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games against Tampa Bay.
  • Tampa Bay is 0-5 SU in its last five road games.

The Saints are playing much better on the defensive side of the ball this season. It’s something that would have been hard to fathom at the start of the year considering that New Orleans has finished in the bottom 10 of the league in total yards allowed every year since 2011. But since losing their first two games this season, they’ve held opponents to less than 20 points in four of their last five games (and won all five). 

The Buccaneers come to town ranking in the bottom 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency this season and have disappointed bettors and experts who predicted they would make the leap to contention in the NFC. Add in that New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in its last five and it’s pretty close to a lock for the Saints to cover.

The total opened at 50 points between these two NFC South rivals and shootouts are a regular occurrence in the Superdome. The total has gone OVER in seven of New Orleans’ last 10 games and 12 of its last 16 at home. Despite their struggles, though, the Bucs are not to be dismissed when it comes to scoring as the total has gone OVER in four of their last five road games.

Another reason to consider the OVER is the Saints passing attack. It’s been top-notch since Drew Brees arrived to the Bayou and this year is no different as they rank fifth in passing yards, averaging 271 yards per game. On the other side of the ball, Tampa Bay has been atrocious defending the pass, allowing 274 yards per game through the air, which is third-worst in the league.

Bettors should have faith in this trend and place a wager on the OVER and watch the sparks fly in this contest.

Opening Odds & Computer Pick

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers opened as 7-point underdogs in this one at most sportsbooks tracked here at OddsShark (including BetOnline), while the total was hovering around 50 at most shops.

NFL prediction models run by the computers at OddsShark picked a 37-13 result in favor of the Saints earlier in the week. Watch matchup reports and the picks page for any changes, due to injuries or suspensions this week. View the computer score prediction and who will win the pick on the moneyline for all upcoming NFL matchups here.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints Matchup

Team Betting Records & Power Rankings

The New Orleans Saints sit at 5-2 (4-3 ATS) on the season; in comparison, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are currently 2-5 (1-5-1 ATS). Looking to bet on the totals? New Orleans is 4-3 OU, and Tampa Bay is 4-3 OU. Stay Informed: follow us on Twitter for odds specials, betting line moves and New Orleans vs Tampa Bay injuries news.

The power rankings show a disparity between these teams, with the New Orleans Saints rated this week at No. 6 and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers sitting at No. 25.

Statistical Matchup

The game also pits New Orleans' No. 6-ranked offense, averaging 27.29 PPG, against a Buccaneers defense that ranks No. 24 this week at 24 PPG. The Saints aerial game is averaging 271.71 yards per game, less than the Buccaneers secondary allows through the air, 274.71 YPG per game.

Defensively, the Buccaneers feature the league's No. 31-rated road run defense, allowing 152.67 yards per game. The Saints, meanwhile, rank No. 11 in rushing offense at home.

Recent Outings Betting Recap

In their last game, the Buccaneers were Week 8 losers coming out on the wrong end of a 17-3 score against Carolina.

The Saints grabbed a Week 8 victory over the Bears in their last game, winning 20-12 at Mercedes-Benz Superdome.

Betting Trends
  • Tampa Bay is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
  • Tampa Bay is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games
  • Tampa Bay is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
  • New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
  • New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 7 of New Orleans' last 10 games
  • New Orleans is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home

Next Betting Matchups

Tampa Bay home to New York, Sunday, November 12
New Orleans at Buffalo, Sunday, November 12

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