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Betting Preview: Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Carolina Panthers

Jameis Winston’s turnovers cost his Buccaneers in Week 1 and now Tampa Bay heads into the short week as a heavy road underdog at the Panthers.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Carolina Panthers (Matchup Report)

Date/Time: September 12, 8:20 p.m. ET

TV Coverage: FOX National Game

Opening Odds: Panthers -5.5 | O/U 51.5 (Line History)

Opening Odds Analysis

The Panthers opened as 5.5-point home favorites, but the line jumped to Carolina -6.5. Tampa Bay’s moneyline opened at +196 and the point total opened at 51.5 before a small pullback to 50.5. The UNDER has hit in five of the past six meetings between the Panthers and Buccaneers.

The Panthers finished the 2018 regular season 7-9 against the spread and earned a +3 push against the Rams in Week 1. The Buccaneers were 7-7-2 ATS last season and 0-1 this season after failing to cover -1 at home against the Niners.

Tampa Bay News & Notes

While interceptions have haunted Jameis Winston throughout his career, he only threw four picks in the final seven games of last season. However, after throwing three – two of which were pick-sixes – in a 31-17 loss to San Francisco, Winston has likely lost whatever benefit of the doubt he had earned.

Pro Football Focus deemed Tampa Bay’s offensive line one of the league’s worst and their reputation held up as the 49ers pass rush got six hits on the quarterback and sacked Winston three times.

All things considered, the Buccaneers defense played well as they held San Francisco to 3.1 yards per rush and Jimmy Garoppolo to 166 pass yards.

Without Winston’s miscues, Tampa Bay likely wins in Week 1.

Bonus Bites: The Buccaneers are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games when dogs of 6.5 or more points.

The Buccaneers are 1-6 SU and 3-4 ATS when Jameis throws three-or-more interceptions.

Carolina News & Notes

Alex Armah’s one-yard run with just under two minutes to go in the game was what Carolina +3 bettors needed to earn the backdoor PUSH. After scoring just three points through the first 30 minutes, the Panthers found the end zone three times in the second half.

Christian McCaffrey touched the ball 29 times and racked up 209 total yards and two touchdowns in his 2019 debut. Perhaps the Rams’ defensive strategy was to let CMC go nuts and stop everybody else because that’s what basically happened. Cam Newton finished 25-for-38 for 239 yards, no touchdowns and two turnovers and rushed three times for -2 yards.

Defensively, the Panthers front seven let a hobbled Todd Gurley average 6.9 yards per rush on 14 carries and the Rams as a team averaged 5.2 YPR. This is noteworthy because one of the lone bright spots in the Buccaneers’ loss to the Niners was Ronald Jones averaging 5.8 yards per carry.

Carolina’s defense finished with six hits on Jared Goff, but just one sack.

Bonus Bite: Since the start of the 2016 season, the Panthers are 2-11 SU, 2-11 ATS with 13 consecutive OVERS when allowing 30-or-more points.

Betting Pick: UNDER 50.5

These are two below-average offenses and with Winston’s addiction to turnovers, one wonders how often Tampa finds the end zone.

Shark Bites
  • The Buccaneers are 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games at night.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Carolina’s last 5 home games vs its division.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the Bucs’ last 6 games vs the Panthers.