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Colts Eye Fourth Straight Win Hosting Tampa Bay

Jonathan Taylor is on fire for the Colts as they face the Buccaneers

The Indianapolis Colts (6-5 SU, 7-4 ATS) are 5-0-1 ATS and 3-3 SU in their last six games against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-3, 4-6). The Colts will be looking for an upset victory at home against the defending champions on Sunday afternoon.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Indianapolis Colts
  • Date/Time: November 28, 4:05 p.m. ET
  • Stadium: Lucas Oil Stadium
  • TV Coverage: Fox
  • Opening Odds: Buccaneers -3 | O/U 52 (Line History)
  • Buccaneers vs Colts Matchup Report

Opening Odds Analysis

The betting line on this matchup has remained steady since Tampa Bay opened as a 3-point road favorite. The total opened at 52 points and has moved up to 53 points due to early action on the OVER. The OVER is 5-1 in Indianapolis’s last six games against Tampa Bay.

Tampa Bay News & Notes

Tampa Bay snapped a two-game losing streak with an easy 30-10 win at home over the New York Giants on Monday night. Tom Brady went 30-for-46 with 307 passing yards, two passing touchdowns and one interception in the win.

Brady did a good job spreading the ball around against the Giants as Mike Evans, Rob Gronkowski, Chris Godwin and Leonard Fournette all had six receptions in the game.

The Buccaneers defense had a strong bounce-back game after allowing 36 points against the New Orleans Saints and 29 points against the Washington Football Team. Tampa Bay held New York to only 215 total yards and forced three turnovers.

The impact of Sean Murphy-Bunting’s return to the lineup was felt as the cornerback had seven tackles and forced a fumble in his first game since Week 1.

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Indianapolis News & Notes

The Colts announced themselves as contenders in the AFC on Sunday with a 41-15 road win over the Buffalo Bills as 7-point underdogs. Buffalo had no answers for Jonathan Taylor, who rushed for 185 yards and four touchdowns on 32 carries and added another major on one of his three receptions in the game as well.

Taylor leads the NFL in rushing yards (1,122) and rushing touchdowns (13) and could find himself in the league MVP conversation if this level of play continues.

Indianapolis, meanwhile, has won three in a row and is now 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS since opening the season with a 1-4 SU and 3-2 ATS record. The Colts are 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS in their last four games as  an underdog this season ahead of this spot in the underdog role against Tampa Bay.

How Tampa Bay Will Cover

The Colts are at their best when they take an early lead and can grind the opposition down with Jonathan Taylor. If Tom Brady and the Buccaneers can avoid that game script with a fast start on offense and force Carson Wentz to beat them, a win and cover would likely follow.

How Indianapolis Will Cover

Giving Tampa Bay a healthy dose of Taylor works as both a way to produce offense and to keep Brady off the field. The winner of the battle between the league’s leading rusher and the league’s leading rushing defense (allowing only 78.4 rushing yards per game) likely goes on to win this game.

Computer Pick: Colts +3

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Shark Bites
  • Tampa Bay is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games vs AFC teams.
  • Indianapolis is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 home games.
  • The OVER is 4-1 in Indianapolis’s last 5 games.