Buccaneers vs 49ers Picks & Odds: Niners Fading Home Faves After Jimmy G Injury

Brock Purdy is expected to make his first NFL start under center on Sunday, when he leads the San Francisco 49ers (8-4 SU, 7-5 ATS) into action against Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-6, 3-8-1) in a key NFL Week 14 matchup.

The last player selected in the 2022 NFL Draft, Purdy is set to assume the role as the Niners’ starting quarterback after Jimmy Garoppolo suffered a season-ending injury in last weekend’s 33-17 win over Miami, which extended San Francisco’s win streak to five games. The Bucs travel to the West Coast after eking out a narrow 17-16 home win over New Orleans on Monday Night Football but have lost three straight on the road.

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Buccaneers vs 49ers Sportsbook Odds

The 49ers have faded to 3.5-point home favorites since Sportsbook as 6-point chalk. The total has also been on the decline since Sportsbook at 41, dipping to 37.

Sunday’s matchup marks the first meeting between these teams since 2019 and the Bucs’ first trip to San Francisco in over six years. The Niners tallied a 31-17 victory when they visited Tampa Bay in Week 1 of the 2019 season and have claimed the win in five of the last eight head-to-head clashes.

However, they have also lost two of three home dates to the Buccaneers, capped by a decisive 34-17 defeat back in October 2016. Recent meetings have tended to be one-sided, with each of their past six dates getting settled by double-digit margins. That has contributed to uneven results in totals betting, with the UNDER paying out in two straight but in just three of the past six.

Get the best Bucs vs 49ers odds and lines available from our recommended sportsbooks for your favorite picks of the night.

Late Rallies Powering Bucs’ Surge

The Buccaneers needed an epic rally in the dying minutes of the fourth quarter to escape with a 17-16 win over the Saints on Monday night. Trailing 14-3 with less than six minutes remaining, Tom Brady led the Bucs on a pair of speedy scoring drives, capped by a TD pass to Rachaad White with just three seconds remaining to seal the win.

Brady flashed vintage form while leading the Bucs on their second game-winning rally in the final frame during the team’s current 3-1 SU run. However, this squad has still averaged a meager 16.3 points per game over their past seven outings. Slow starts remain a concern, with the team scoring three or fewer points in the first quarter five times over the past seven games. 

A feeble ground game has produced just two scoring runs over the past five games, both by Leonard Fournette, and an average of just 74.2 total rushing yards over the past seven games. Those worries have been amplified by an ankle injury that forced Fournette to miss the Bucs’ 23-17 loss in Cleveland two weeks ago and limited him to just 49 yards on 10 carries Monday night.

It’s Purdy Time in San Francisco

The 49ers have been forced to scramble to bolster their depth under center after Jimmy Garoppolo saw his season end when he suffered a broken foot in last week’s win over the Dolphins. The loss of Jimmy G has opened the door for rookie Brock Purdy, who turned in a steady performance in relief last weekend, completing 25 of 37 pass attempts for 210 yards and two touchdowns against just one pick.

But while the loss of a second starting quarterback to a season-ending injury would prove devastating to most NFL teams, it is important to note that it is a stout defense surrendering an NFL-low 15.8 points per game that has been crucial to this team’s success.

That said, the Niners would also benefit from increased production from their ground game to support their newly minted starter, who is set to face a Bucs pass defense that has allowed just five scoring tosses over the past four games while recording 13 sacks.

Niners rushers have failed to score while generating just 3.4 yards per carry over the past two games. Christian McCaffrey hasn’t produced a scoring run while rushing for just 42.7 yards per game over his past three outings.

Buccaneers: Keys to Win

Faced with the challenge of snapping a three-game slide on the road, during which they have averaged just 12.7 points per game, the Buccaneers must avoid surrendering an early lead. This team’s reliance on late rallies is unlikely to help them against the Niners’ stout defense. Accordingly, Brady must find ways of keeping the San Francisco defense off balance by making better use of the backfield duo of Fournette and White. Steady pressure by the defensive line on Purdy, who is not known for his mobility, could also be crucial on what may possibly be a rainy afternoon in Santa Clara.

49ers: Keys to Win

The 49ers demonstrated poise after losing starting pivot Trey Lance to injury back in Week 2 and must now circle the wagons around their youthful passer in his first NFL start. In addition to yet another dominating defensive performance after allowing just 11.4 points per game during their current 5-0 run, the Niners must make more effective use of their backfield against a Bucs squad that has surrendered an average of 146.3 rushing yards during their current three-game road losing streak.

NFL Computer Pick: 49ers -3.5

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