Titans vs Colts Picks & Odds: Indianapolis Favored In Key AFC South Clash

Division rivals both looking to build on their first win of the season clash Sunday as the Indianapolis Colts (1-1-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) play host to the Tennessee Titans (1-2, 1-2) in NFL Week 4 action. The Colts pulled off the biggest upset of Week 3, knocking off the Kansas City Chiefs 20-17 and paying out as 4.5-point home underdogs. The Titans atoned for their crushing 41-7 loss to Buffalo in Week 2 by eking out a narrow 24-22 victory over the visiting Las Vegas Raiders.

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Titans vs Colts Sportsbook Odds

The Colts have faded to 3-point favorites since Sportsbook as 3.5-point home chalk. The total has also been on the decline, slipping to 42.5 after Sportsbook at 44.5. The Titans swept the season series with the Colts in 2021, capped by a 34-31 win in Indianapolis as 3-point underdogs in Week 8. Overall, Tennessee has now won and covered in three straight meetings with the Colts, and enjoys a steady 4-1 SU and ATS run over its past five visits to Indianapolis.

Recent dates between these teams have tended to be high-scoring affairs. The total has hit 50 or higher in four of their past seven clashes, fueling a 5-2 run for the OVER in totals betting. Home teams have struggled to earn the win, claiming victory in just two of the past seven games involving these teams. 

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Titans Struggling To Put Away Opponents

The Titans never trailed in last week’s win over Las Vegas, but that didn’t prevent them from almost squandering the lead in the dying moments for the second time in three outings.

Tennessee scored touchdowns on each of its first three possessions and took a 24-10 lead into halftime. The team’s biggest stars played like it, with Ryan Tannehill connecting for 264 passing yards and one scoring toss, and adding a scoring run, while rusher Derrick Henry contributed 143 total yards and his second TD run of the season. 

However, the Titans failed to slam the door in the second half, compiling just 76 total yards and three first downs, with Tannehill contributing one pick. In fact, all that separated the Raiders from a second straight trip to overtime was a missed two-point conversion in the wake of a touchdown with just 74 seconds remaining. 

Matt Ryan Getting Little Help From Offensive Line

Humiliated by the resurgent Jacksonville Jaguars in a 24-0 loss in Week 2, the Colts rebounded with a huge character win over Kansas City last weekend. While it is tough to characterize the 20-17 victory as pretty, the Colts leveraged a stingy defense and some late-game heroics to eke out the win.

The Indy defense limited Patrick Mahomes to just 262 passing yards and one score, and snuffed out a late Chiefs drive with a game-ending interception. The Colts also benefited from KC miscues, including a missed field-goal attempt in the fourth quarter, and some bad penalties taken by the Chiefs.

Matt Ryan deserves credit for maintaining veteran calm and guiding the Colts on a 76-yard drive in the fourth quarter that resulted in the game-winning touchdown. However, his offensive line allowed him to be sacked on five occasions for the second straight week.

Titans: Keys To Win

The chemistry developing between Tannehill and Henry is good news for the Titans, who scored just 27 total points through their first two games of the season.

However, an inability to slam the door on opponents after seizing an early lead is a source of major concern, with this team getting outscored by a 57-7 margin after halftime through its first three outings. The pass defense has emerged as a concern as well after allowing an NFL-worst eight touchdowns through the first three weeks of the season.

Colts: Keys To Win

The Colts finally got what they paid for in Matt Ryan last weekend. Ryan avoided getting picked off for the first time this season and was steady if not spectacular for a full 60 minutes. His cause would be helped by a stingier offensive line, which allowed the Chiefs to blitz him almost at will in last week’s contest. 

NFL Computer Pick: Colts -3.5

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