With Houston resting its starters, Tennessee cruised to a 35-14 Week 17 win and cover to finish the regular season 9-7 straight up and against the spread. The OVER has hit in nine of the Titans’ last 10 games.
New England limps into the playoffs figuratively and literally as Tom Brady fell to 15-2 all-time against the Dolphins at home. Miami’s +17 stunning outright upset of the Patriots dropped Bill Belichick’s squad to 12-4 SU and 9-7 ATS on the season. The OVER has hit in four of their last five as the Patriots defense regressed somewhat down the home stretch.
The Patriots opened as 4.5-point home favorites, but as of Monday morning, the spread could be found as low as New England -4 and as high as New England -5 at books we track. Tennessee’s moneyline opened at +174 and the point total at 40.5 before a consensus jump to 43.5. The total has gone OVER in seven of the Patriots’ last nine playoff games.
Tennessee News & Notes
Titans Pass Offense vs New England
Since becoming the starter back on October 20, Ryan Tannehill is 7-3 overall and averaged 259.8 pass yards per game with 22 touchdowns and only five interceptions. He has turned rookie A.J. Brown into an overnight sensation as the receiver is averaging 100.8 yards per game with five touchdowns over his past six games.
It’s expected that Defensive Player of the Year favorite Stephon Gilmore will cover Brown. However, it’s worth noting that Gilmore was torched by Miami’s DeVante Parker for eight receptions and 137 yards just last Sunday.
The Patriots rank second in the league in pass yards allowed per game this season at 180.4. Ryan Fitzpatrick just posted 320 passing yards and a 99.6 quarterback rating against them last Sunday.
Titans Rush Offense vs New England
Simply stated, Derrick Henry appeared rested and healthy as he snatched the 2019 rushing title from Nick Chubb late in the Titans’ win over the Texans. He may be one of the most underrated players in the NFL today.
The Patriots are one of just eight teams to hold opposing running games under 100 yards per contest. Ezekiel Elliott, the best Henry comp New England faced during the regular season, rushed 21 times for 86 yards back in late November.
Titans Defense vs New England
The two defensive metrics handicappers like myself love are opponents’ third-down and red-zone conversion rates.
Tennessee boasts the eighth-best third-down defense as opposing offenses only converted 36.4 percent during the regular season. However, they need to keep Brady and company out of the red zone because they also ranked 31st in the league in red-zone touchdown conversion rate at 68 percent on 2.9 red-zone attempts per game.
In other words, if the Dolphins can hold New England to 3-for-9 on third down last Sunday, the Titans really need to match the effort and shake the confidence of a rattled New England offense.
Injury Report
There’s a chance the Titans get cornerback Adoree’ Jackson back after he missed the past four games due to a foot injury.
New England News & Notes
Patriots Injury Report
NFL Network’s Patriots beat reporter Mike Giardi began his Monday morning television segment by highlighting the fact that Tom Brady was flexing his elbow throughout Sunday’s loss to the Dolphins. He was also seen running up and down the sideline, while the defense was on the field, which is uncommon for Brady. The elbow showed up on injury reports the final month of the season. Most pundits suspect Brady’s arm is less than 100 percent, but the quarterback claims he’s healthy.
Julian Edelman was seen on the sideline Sunday with a heating pack on his bad knee. He’s hauled in only 10 receptions over his last three games as he hobbles to the finish line.
Cornerback Jason McCourty remains questionable with a nagging groin injury.
Patriots Pass Offense vs Tennessee
One reason national pundits challenge Brady on the severity of his elbow injury is that over the past three games, he’s averaged just 201.3 pass yards per game or 46 fewer than his season-to-date average.
The Titans allowed 255 pass yards per game this season.
Patriots Rush Offense vs Tennessee
Don’t be surprised to see a heavy dose of Sony Michel against a Titans rush defense that has allowed 117 rush yards per game over its past three. Michel averaged 86.3 rush yards per game the final three weeks of the season. He and Rex Burkhead helped New England average 151 rush yards over its last three contests, pushing the team’s season average to 106.4 yards per game.
Patriots Defense vs Tennessee
Despite the lack of offensive production and double-secret probation injury list, New England still thrives in two important areas. The Patriots rank first in opponents’ third-down conversion rate at 24.1 percent and fourth in opponents’ red-zone touchdown conversion rate at 48.3 percent. This is a classic New England bend-but-do-not-break defense that may yield some yards but will clench down inside its own 20.
Betting Pick: Titans +4.5 and OVER
I’m not sold that this is the end of the road for Tom Brady and the Patriots, but I am sold that Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry have the Titans offense clicking and can compete with anybody on Sund– ...er... Saturday.
Shark Bites
The Titans are 5-2 SU and ATS in their last 7 games.
The Patriots are 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 playoff games.
The Titans are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs the Patriots.
