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Cowboys Have Been OVER and Cover Machines After Bye Weeks

The Week 9 Monday nighter features the 3-4 Titans and 3-4 Cowboys coming off bye weeks (and losses) and bookmakers have made the Boys big faves in this one with Dallas winning all three of its home games this season.

Through October, the Cowboys improved steadily – adding Amari Cooper into the mix – and they could easily be 5-2 on the season if they get a break or two in three-point losses to the Redskins and Texans. The Titans, however, have lost three straight, including a loss to the Bills and a shutout against the Ravens.

While Tennessee managed to cover as 6.5-point underdogs against the Chargers in London, this line is about right and while I like the Cowboys to win their eighth game in their last 10 during prime time, this spread is a little too wide to swallow.

  • The Cowboys have posted 7 OVERs in their last 7 games after a bye week.
  • The Titans are allowing 112.3 rushing yards per game.
  • The Cowboys are 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as favorites of 6.5 or more points.

Titans vs Cowboys Game Center

Dallas Gets it Done After Bye Weeks

When looking at Cowboys games after bye weeks in recent history, some serious trends popped out. The first: the Cowboys are 9-4 SU and 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games after a bye week. The second: the OVER has hit in 11 of those games and in seven straight.

Make of these trends what you will but I’m very interested in them both, especially the latter of the two with the MNF total sitting at a season-low 41 points.

Yes, these are two of the best defenses in the NFL (Tennessee ranks first in opponents’ red-zone scoring percentage and Dallas ranks second), but the Titans have played some of the worst offensive teams in the league this season and I believe this has skewed their numbers on defense.

The Cowboys have also scored substantially more points at home than they have on the road (28.67 PPG in Dallas) and two of their three games at Jerry World this season have gone OVER.

Zeke Could Torch the Titans

Coming off one of the worst performances of his career (33 yards on 15 attempts), Ezekiel Elliott is primed for a bounce-back week against a Titans defense that’s been vulnerable against the run and I believe he’s a good play in DFS and a must-start in season-long leagues.

Not only has Zeke been a monster at home this season (112 yards per game), but the Cowboys have rushed for an insane average of 175.7 yards per game as a team at AT&T Stadium in 2018.

If Dallas gets the running game going on Monday, the play-action should open up for Dak and his newly acquired deep threat Amari Cooper could be in for a big day.

Best Bet for Titans-Cowboys: Cowboys PICK & OVER 35 6-Point Teaser

I improved my MNF record to 6-2 last week with a Patriots to cover pick that I’ll admit was a bit lucky to cash despite the final score, but when you’re hot, you’re hot, and I really like this 6-point teaser given everything I discussed above. Fade me at your own risk.

Stats for the MNF preview were provided by the Week 9 NFL Betting Primer.