Andrew Luck

Indy .500: Colts, Titans Square Off

The 5-4 Titans travel to Indianapolis to take on the 4-5 Colts where the Sportsbook takes over possession of second place in the AFC South.

After a sluggish start at Dallas two weeks ago, Tennessee has looked sharp over its past seven quarters. The Titans’ convincing 34-10 win over the New England Patriots improved their record against the spread to 6-3.

Try as Indy might to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, Jacksonville’s late fourth-quarter fumble secured a 29-26 outright win for the Colts, but a push against the spread. Indianapolis is now 4-4-1 against the spread this season.

The Colts are 3-point home favorites with Tennessee’s moneyline at +130 and the point total Sportsbook at 47.5 before sliding to 48. In Andrew Luck’s absence last season, the Titans were 2-0 ATS against the Colts, but Indy boasts a 7-1 ATS record against its division foe in eight regular-season meetings from 2013 to 2016.

SHARK BITES
  • The Titans are 6-0 SU and ATS in their last six games vs divisional opponents (avg. winning margin: 6.67).
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of the Titans’ last five games (avg. combined score: 34.2).
  • The total has gone UNDER in 12 of the Colts’ last 17 games at home (avg. combined score: 43.41).

Titans vs Colts Game Center

WHAT WE LEARNED: WEEK 10

Titans – Tennessee has scored 62 points over the past seven quarters. The Titans are also controlling time of possession via their rush attack, which has averaged 146.3 yards per game over the past three weeks – fourth-best in the league. The Colts allow 3.9 yards per rush this season.

Yet, it’s the Titans defense that will propel them into the playoffs. They’ve allowed 15.6 points per game over the past five contests. Against a New England offense that averages 5.7 yards per play this season, the Titans handcuffed them to 4.4 yards per play, which when compared to a season-to-date offense would be similar to the Bills or Cardinals.

Indianapolis averaged 6.6 yards per play over the past three games – fourth-most in the NFL.

Colts - What is better for ATS analysis: the Colts as 3-point favorites jumping out to a 29-16 halftime lead over the Jaguars or Jacksonville’s defense shutting Indy’s offense out in the second half? It’s a head scratcher.

The Colts offense has been anemic in the third and fourth quarters at home recently. Over the past four second-half quarters, they’ve tallied only 168 total yards with a safety, interception, missed field goal and four punts. The two second-half touchdowns they did score were from two yards and 20 yards out, right after Derek Anderson turnovers.

NEXT LEVEL TRENDS: SHUT THE YAPP’ER

Since 2015, defenses that hold their opponent to 4.4 or fewer yards per play in a single game are 243-89-1 straight up and 221-101-11 against the spread. So, if the Titans defense can repeat the 4.4 YAPP feat against the Colts, they have better than a 2-to-1 shot to cover against the Colts.

NEXT LEVEL TRENDS: LUCK’S TRIPLE TRIES

Andrew Luck threw three more touchdown passes in Week 10 against the Jaguars. It’s the sixth consecutive game in which Luck has thrown for three or more touchdowns. While the Colts -3 earned a push against the Jaguars, Indy is 14-9 straight up and 14-8-1 against the spread when the franchise quarterback throws three or more touchdown passes in a game.

FORECAST

Lucas Oil Stadium is nice this time of year.

Adam Vinatieri may have passed Morten Andersen on the all-time scoring list, but the Colts’ veteran kicker has also missed two extra points and a field goal over the past three weeks. All three misses came inside his home stadium. Tennessee’s Ryan Succop has missed three field goals over the past three weeks and is 17-for-20 on the season and 15-for-15 on extra points.

MY LEAN

My read on the Titans has been askew most of this season in that they are a quirky offense and, at times, inconsistent defense. Although, I did pick them to cover against the Cowboys and felt pretty confident the Patriots giving -6.5 to Tennessee at home was too generous.

During their three-game winning streak, the Colts offense has clicked against three of the league’s bottom-feeders. All due credit to Buffalo’s top-ranked defense, but Derek Anderson made an emergency start and his four turnovers led to short fields and 24 points for the Colts. In other words, the Titans defense is going to cause headaches Andrew Luck hasn’t experienced this season.

Leaning Titans and UNDER.

The Titans are 6-0 SU and ATS in their last six games vs divisional opponents (avg. winning margin: 6.67).away The total has gone UNDER in four of the Titans’ last five games (avg. combined score: 34.2).away The total has gone UNDER in 12 of the Colts’ last 17 games at home (avg. combined score: 43.41).home
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