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Three Season Win Total Picks For The 2016 NFL Season

NFL season win totals have been out for a while now and it’s high time I jumped in with a few of my early likes. 

Here are three of them with odds courtesy of Bovada :

New Orleans Saints UNDER 7 wins (-115): 

Everybody knows the Saints offense can be pretty special with Drew Brees slinging balls around. It’s the defense that tells me this team might have major trouble earning eight wins this season. 

The defense was deplorable on a record breaking scale in 2015 as the worst scoring defense in the league that allowed an NFL all-time worst 45 receiving touchdowns. That made nine more – NINE! – than the second worst mark in the league (Eagles). 

Although they have a new defensive coordinator, I don’t feel this team has done enough to plug the leaks in just one offseason - especially considering the Saints own the fourth-toughest schedule in 2016 in terms of opponents’ win percentage from last year. 

It’s tough to win in this league if you have to score five or six touchdowns every game.

Houston Texans UNDER 8.5 (EVEN): 

I’m still puzzled as to how Houston won nine games last year. It helped that the AFC South was the laughing stock of the NFL and the Texans went 5-1 against the division. 

This offensive line was on the soft side and was just plain insufficient with its run-block. If anything, I think the Texans will be worse on the O-line this year with a possible rookie starting at center and a new quarterback to get used to in Brock Osweiler. They also may not get the boost they’re accustomed to on defense with superstar J.J. Watt currently on the PUP list after back surgery. 

I see Houston stalling out of the gate in the early going and don’t think they’ll catch up enough to get nine wins in a division where I feel at least two teams should be better than they were last year – Jacksonville and Indianapolis.

Dallas Cowboys OVER 9.5 (EVEN): 

This one is a bit more of a risky pick, I’ll admit. First of all, you can usually count on Dallas being overvalued on futures because so many love to bet them Cowboys and secondly because this team clunked its way to a 4-12 record last year. 

The Cowboys’ Achilles Heel last year was pathetic quarterback play after Tony Romo got injured. Again. It was even more terrible when you consider Dallas just might have the best offensive line in the NFL  

I am banking on/hoping that Romo stays healthier this year and that Dallas has come up with a better  contingency game plan in the offseason if he doesn’t. 

I’m also optimistic this defensive line will be better - especially once Randy Gregory and DeMarcus Lawrence return after serving their four-game suspensions for violating the drug policy. 

I believe Dallas can weather September and it will benefit from having the fourth-easiest schedule in the league based on last year’s win percentages.