Another season of NFL football is here, and with it comes an avalanche of betting opportunities. Many are focused on sides and totals, but there’s also dozens of player prop betting opportunities for every game and we’ve enlisted the help of fantasy football expert Ryan Fowler to break down his favorite Player Prop Bet Picks for every Thursday and Monday night game. Check out his picks for tonight’s Chiefs-Patriots game below!
All prop odds courtesy of Sportsbook.
Brady may have only thrown two interceptions in 12 games during the 2016 regular season, but those picks came against Seattle and Baltimore – two really good secondaries. He also threw three more picks in the playoffs to prove he’s human after all. Pro Football Focus ranked the Chiefs secondary 10th-best heading into the 2017 season. Kansas City led the league (t-BAL/LAC) with 18 interceptions last season. With Julian Edelman out of commission, Brady lost his pass-catching confidant. Rob Gronkowski, Brandin Cooks and Chris Hogan are great, but there is bound to be a miscue in Week 1.
Last season, the Patriots rushing game had a focus: give the ball to LeGarrette Blount. This season, it’s a mixed-bag split among several options. The lack of ground game focus makes me believe Brady is going to attempt more passes per game in 2017 than 2016 (36 ATTPG).
Did you know Hogan averaged nearly 110 receiving yards per game in three 2016 playoff games? That was with Edelman on the field, which won’t be the case on Thursday night. With so much attention on Gronk and Cooks, all Hogan needs is one deep ball to set the tone.
Here’s a quick stat to ponder when deciding whether Cooks will hit the OVER. Last season as a member of the Saints, Cooks racked up more than 84 receiving yards in a game only five times. Now, you could argue and say that’s nearly one-third of the season or you could realize even in the most receiver-friendly offense, Cooks was one link in the chain. The Patriots passing game often operates like that with or without Edelman active. Plus, that Chiefs secondary will look to clamp down on him and Gronk and make the rest of the roster beat them.
Andy Reid’s offensive game plans and clock management often confuse the masses. Travis Kelce’s usage is a perfect example. The reliable tight end averaged 51.7 receiving yards per game through the first nine weeks of 2016. Kelce went on to average 108.5 receiving yards in his next six games. The Chiefs don’t stand a chance to beat the Patriots unless Kelce is heavily involved.
Hill might hit the OVER in the first quarter. The way I see it, would Andy Reid lean on a rookie running back in Kareem Hunt and inconsistent veteran in Charcandrick West to jump-start and keep pace with the Patriots OR target one of the most versatile offensive options in the game today. Line ’em up in the slot, work the quick hitters and five receptions will hit with ease. Also keep in mind, although the Chiefs do enjoy to run the football, Alex Smith attempted 489 passes last year – the most for him since 2013.