If not for an overturned touchdown and two late-game turnovers, the New York Jets could be sitting at 6-2. Instead, they’re 3-5 and in the midst of a three-game losing streak, which is still surprising considering expectations would be they’d tank the season.
Tonight, they host the 5-2 Bills in Week 9’s featured Thursday matchup. Buffalo – winners of four of their last five – made a splash at the trade deadline by sending a pair of draft picks to Carolina in exchange for wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin. It’s hard to say how much of a role K.B. will have on the short week, but he could be in line for some red-zone jump balls. Buffalo beat the Jets 21-12 in Week 1. Josh McCown tossed two picks in his Jets debut, while LeSean McCoy racked up more than 150 total yards.
All prop odds courtesy of Sportsbook.
Josh McCown Pass Yards O/U 225 ½
The Bet: OVER (-125)
Josh McCown Pass Attempts O/U 33 ½
The Bet: OVER (-115)
Like Ryan Fitzpatrick before him, McCown can shock the critics with his production. He’s completing 70 percent of his passes this season and has finished with a QB rating north of 101.0 in five of his eight starts. Buffalo has allowed the last three quarterbacks to pass for more than 300 yards. On the short week, I don’t anticipate the Bills ironing out those issues.
After a stellar finish to his 2016 campaign, Bilal Powell’s role remains undefined eight weeks into the 2017 season as he’s still in a running back by committee with Matt Forte. Although it hasn’t been as sharp in recent weeks, Buffalo’s defensive strength is stopping the run. So, with the Jets ranked 22nd in rushing yards per game up against a legit rush D, it wouldn’t shock me to see McCown drop back to pass 35 to 40 times. He attempted 39 against the Bills in Week 1.
Also, with the high volume of passes and the Bills’ knack for jumping routes (11 INTs this season), there’s a reason McCown’s odds for throwing a pick tonight come at a steep price (-250). Yikes, too much juice.
Tyrod Taylor Pass Completions O/U 18 ½
The Bet: OVER (-115)
Taylor has completed exactly 20 passes in four of the past five games. The New York Jets allow an average of 21 completions per game. Although Taylor’s favorite target, Charles Clay, will miss his third straight game, the quarterback has still managed 20 completions per game in his absence. With the trade for Benjamin, there’s an obvious effort to branch out from the rush-heavy offense.
Watch for McCoy to really carry the load for this prop bet to hit. He’s caught five or more passes in six out of seven games and the Jets struggle against pass-catching running backs.
LeSean McCoy Rush Yards O/U 87 ½
The Bet: UNDER (-105)
Expanding on the thought above, I think the bulk of McCoy’s contributions come via the passing game. As good as he’s been the previous two weeks, he’s still averaging just 3.8 yards per rush this season. Granted, he rushed 22 times for 110 yards against the Jets in Week 1, but New York has been better against the run of late. Plus, at 5-2, the Bills need McCoy fresh for the second half and any potential playoff run. His injury history suggests 20+ between-the-tackles attempts per week isn’t great for longevity.
Austin Seferian-Jenkins Rec. Yards O/U 37 ½
The Bet: OVER (-130)
Buffalo has allowed nearly 92 receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends over the past four games. Seferian-Jenkins is averaging 33.5 receiving yards per game. One more reception at his current 6.5 yards per reception and he’s hit the OVER.