NFL Week 14 begins tonight with a Thursday Night Football matchup between the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions.
Lions are 3.5-point favorites at BetMGM. Bettors prefer the underdog Packers at +3.5, as 53% of the handle is on the Packers to cover via just 39% of tickets, per BetMGM's data. This makes sense, as the Lions -3.5 is a crummy number to play.
For anytime touchdown scorers, the betting handles are all over Lions top performers like Amon-Ra St. Brown (+100), David Montgomery (-175), and Sam Laporta (+175).
Below, I'll highlight where the betting action is for the Week 14 Thursday Night Football game and what we can learn from the Packers vs Lions handle:
Packers vs Lions Betting Handle
Packers vs Lions, Dec. 5, 8:15 pm ET
| Team | Spread | % Bets | % Handle | Total | % Bets | % Handle |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | +3.5 | 39% | 53% | O51.5 | 58% | 54% |
| Detroit Lions | -3.5 | 61% | 47% | U51.5 | 42% | 46% |
Betting Handle per BetMGM
Why Are Sharps Betting Packers to cover? Is UNDER The Play?
The Packers at +3.5 are a popular bet for sharp bettors at BetMGM, who've filled out 53% of the handle on just 39% of tickets. The Lions have covered in seven of their last nine contests but failed to do so on Thanksgiving last week as an ugly second-half of offense squandered their -9.5 cover and nearly the entire game if it weren't for Bears coach Matt Eberflus.
Green Bay is hot, and this TNF showdown marks a meeting of the two top offenses in football. Naturally, the total sits at an inflated 51.5. Our NFL expert Nick Holz likes the UNDER in this contest.
As Nick points out, the Lions lead the NFL in defensive EPA per play allowed during that span, while the Packers hold a respectable 15th place. Both teams shine in getting off the field on third downs: Detroit allows conversions on just 31.7% of attempts, with Green Bay close behind at 34.97%.
Expect a heavy emphasis on the ground game from both sides, with Josh Jacobs and the dynamic duo of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs grinding out yards. This approach will keep the clock running and likely lead to a lower-scoring affair.
If you're not interested in game picks for tonight's Packers vs Lions TNF contest, BetMGM has also provided us with the most bet on Packers vs Lions player props, in terms of number of tickets:
Five Most Bet Packers vs Lions Player Props
- Jayden Reed OVER 58.5 receiving yards (-120)
- David Montgomery OVER 15.5 receiving yards (-110)
- Josh Jacobs OVER 70.5 rushing yards (-135)
- Jared Goff OVER 1.5 passing touchdowns (-140)
- Christian Watson OVER 48.5 receiving yards (-120)
Five most Bet Packers vs Lions Players for Anytime TD
- Amon-Ra St. Brown +100
- David Montgomery -175
- Sam LaPorta +175
- Jahmyr Gibbs -160
- Josh Jacobs -160
Five Most Bet Packers vs Lions Players For First TD
- David Montgomery +400
- Jahmyr Gibbs +450
- Sam LaPorta +1200
- Amon-Ra St. Brown +750
- Jayden Reed +1100
I'm not surprised to see the public all over Amon-Ra St. Brown's anytime TD numbers, especially at plus money. He hasn’t found the end zone in two weeks, but don’t let that make you forget how reliable he’s been all season.
Before Week 12, St. Brown had scored in eight straight games and remains Jared Goff’s go-to guy when it matters most. He leads the Lions with 16 red-zone targets, ranking fifth in the NFL among wide receivers, and has caught 14 of them. That’s twice as many as Jameson Williams and four more than tight end Sam LaPorta.
With nine touchdowns on the season, St. Brown is overdue to get back on the board. This primetime contest offers a great opportunity against the Packers, whom he torched earlier this year with seven catches for 56 yards and a score.
