The NFL playoffs are well underway, so I've got a few Divisional Round Anytime TD scorer picks for this weekend's contests.
This week, I'm going with some heavy hitters from No. 1 seeeds, taking Chiefs TE Travis Kelce and Lions RB David Montgomery to score. I've also got a few first TD picks below.
Divisional Round NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bets
| Game Type | Record | Unit Profit |
|---|---|---|
| Regular Season | 10-21 | -3.61 |
| Playoffs | 1-1 | +0.50 |
David Montgomery Anytime Touchdown (-140)
There's a reason both Jahmyr Gibbs (-230) and Montgomery are minus money to score touchdowns this week. Both Detroit backs averaged over .85 touchdowns per game, with Gibbs leading the NFL with 16 rushing scores and Montgomery cashing 12 times in 14 games.
This week, Detroit faces a Washington defense that was one of the worst in football against running backs this year. The Commanders allowed the sixth-most rushing TDs to RBs this season (16 in 17 games).
I think both Gibbs and Monty are safe bets to score this week (even at minus money), but with the clear better value falling on Montgomery, he's my Anytime TD bet for the Detroit side.
Travis Kelce Anytime Touchdown (+160)
Let's be honest, Travis Kelce was pretty bad this season. He averaged just 51 yards per game and scored only three touchdowns all season. But, he was also bad last regular season and then went off for 89 yards per contest and three touchdowns in four playoff games. I expect a similar postseason jump from Kelce this year.
This is a good matchup for him to start that leap, as the Texans allowed the fifth-most touchdowns to tight ends this season (eight in 17 games). In seven career games against the Texans, Kelce has three touchdowns.
If you want more of a value pick here, I do like Chiefs TE2 Noah Gray as well (+550 to score at Sportsbook). The backup TE had five scores this season, actually more than Kelce.
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Divisional Round First Touchdown Scorer Bets
If you want to risk it even a little further, here are the odds for Irving and Brown's first touchdown scorer bets this week at BetMGM, as well as a few other 1st TD wagers I like this week:
- Travis Kelce (KC) 1st TD: +750
- Noah Gray (KC) 1st TD: +2100
- David Montgomery (DET) 1st TD: +550
- Justice Hill (BAL) 1st TD: +3300
If you're looking to do your own research for 1st TD scorer picks this week, BetMGM has a breakdown of every first and second TD in every game so far this season.
BetMGM is also, generally, a good place to lock in these first TD scorer picks, because of the book's 'Second Chance Promotion.' It's a promo that offers bettors the chance to win back their stake if a first touchdown scorer doesn't open the game with a TD, but ends up being the second scorer.
How To Understand NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer Odds
The time has come that you finally want to bet on some NFL props instead of sides and totals and you’ve decided on the NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer props. This is a fun choice because props are like games within the game that may or may not have a direct impact on the outcome of the game.
When you go to your online sportsbook to look at NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer odds for our recommended bets, for instance, the odds available to bet on might be presented like this:
Cooper Kupp – Rams +120
Tee Higgins – Bengals +150
Similar to a moneyline bet where favorites would be marked with the minus sign (-) and underdogs with the plus sign (+), the favorite to score a touchdown is a player with the lowest odds, which in this case is Cooper Kupp. Based on Kupp’s implied odds from sportsbooks, he has a 45.45 percent chance to score a touchdown.
Let’s say you think Tee Higgins will score a touchdown in this game. In order to make $100 in profit, you would need to bet $66.67. If you make that bet and Higgins scores, your $66.67 original bet is returned and you win $100 in profit.
On the flip side, part of the allure of NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer wagers is the big paydays you could receive for being right and picking a player who doesn’t score as often as Kupp or Higgins. In this case, you decide to bet on the Bengals’ Joe Burrow at +500.
If you bet $100 on Burrow and he finds the end zone in the game, you would get $600 returned to you. Your original $100 bet is refunded and the sportsbook will give you $500 in profit for your winning bet. If you’re unsure about potential payouts for certain betting odds, try out Odds Shark’s odds calculator to do the math for you and show you how much you’d win based on the odds and amount wagered.
