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Why The Buffalo Bills Will Break The UNDER Record To Start An NFL Season

Buffalo Bills Longest UNDER Streak To Start NFL Season October 2, 2019

High-scoring games and the Buffalo Bills have not gone hand in hand. All four of their games in 2019 have gone UNDER and they’re the only team in the NFL this season that has not had a game go OVER the closing total. I think low-scoring Bills games will continue and they will break the record for the longest UNDER streak to start a season, which is six games.

Starting the season with four straight games going UNDER isn’t exactly a notable feat as it’s happened 43 times in Odds Shark’s database since 1994. Most recently, the Arizona Cardinals in 2018 and the Pittsburgh Steelers in 2017 accomplished this.

The main reason I’m predicting this trend to continue is the poor offense and great defense the Bills possess. Buffalo is averaging only 19 points per game (ranked 24th) despite being 3-1 SU but its defense has been excellent in only allowing 15.8 points per game, which ranks fifth in the NFL.

One of the points I brought up in my prime-time UNDER trend article is how first downs can be a predictive variable for totals. If the two football teams playing combine for 40 or fewer first downs in the game, the total has fallen short. Well, this seems to be holding true for Bills games as the number in all four games fell short of 40, with the combined average in the four games at 38.9.

What is the All-time UNDER Record To Start a Season?

The all-time UNDER record to start a season is six games, a mark that has been reached four times since 1994. The last team to start the season with six straight games going UNDER was the Denver Broncos back in 2006. 

Their games had an average combined score of 20.5 points. Bills games in 2019 have an average combined score of 34.7.

Here are the four teams to accomplish this achievement:

Teams with 6-Game UNDER Streak To Start Season
RankYearNameAvg. Combined Score
12006Broncos20.5
21999Jaguars33.0
31997Redskins33.3
42004Panthers36.3

Buffalo Bills Upcoming Games

Week 5: Bills @ Titans

Total at 38

I think this one goes UNDER because they’re essentially the same team. Both have stout defenses and quarterbacks who have difficulty completing passes. Also, 13 of the last 18 Bills road games have gone UNDER (72.2 percent) and had an average combined score of 36.6. 

Prediction: UNDER

Week 6: Bye

Week 7: Dolphins @ Bills

Projected total: 36

Even with such a low predicted total, I still expect this game to fall short. The Dolphins have the worst offense in the NFL and have scored two offensive touchdowns in four games. Yikes! The Dolphins are also the only team after four weeks that has yet to score a touchdown in the second half of games. Look for the Bills to get up early and then run out the clock.

Prediction: UNDER

Week 8: Eagles @ Bills

Projected total: 43

This will be the game that could make me sweat because as much as I believe in the Bills defense, the Eagles can score on anyone. The Eagles have scored at least 20 points in each of their four games and just got done putting up 34 on the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field. Buffalo’s secondary should be able to make this a tough game for the Boo Birds and I also expect Philly’s defensive line to negate any ability for Josh Allen to run on them.

Prediction: UNDER