Vikings Huge Home Favorites Over Redskins as Revenge Games Beckon

The Vikings have covered in three straight, but Minnesota backers would need to lay double digits against the Redskins.

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

The Vikings opened as 14-point home favorites, but that spread has jumped to -16 at most books. Washington’s moneyline opened at +600 and the point total at 40.0 before a tick up to 41. The UNDER has hit in four consecutive Redskins games.

Minnesota improved to 5-2 straight up and against the spread with a convincing 42-30 win over the Lions. Washington fell to 1-6 SU but improved to 2-5 ATS as it became just the second team over the past 25 years to cover the spread without scoring a single point.

The Vikings as 16-point home favorites this week may be a blessing and a curse as it was just last season that Minnesota -16.5 lost to Josh Allen’s Buffalo Bills 27-6 in one of the most lopsided upsets in NFL history. The Redskins haven’t been road dogs of 16 or more points since 1995. Minnesota’s average margin of victory during its three-game win streak: 16 points.

Washington News and Notes

The revenge game narrative overfloweth Thursday night. Adrian Peterson, Case Keenum and Kirk Cousins are all getting a crack at their former teams.

Washington’s Week 7 “Mud Bowl” against the 49ers doesn’t really help in handicapping this matchup on the short week. If anything, Adrian Peterson’s 81 yards on 20 carries was impressive on a sloppy track.

Ignoring the Niners game, Case Keenum is averaging 274.7 pass yards with nine touchdowns and three interceptions (all vs the Bears) in four starts this season. In other words, while the record may not indicate it, Keenum is competing. The Vikings pass defense has allowed the eighth-most passing yards per game during their active three-game winning streak. So long as his offensive line gives him time, Keenum can attack the Vikings defense.

The most notable injuries ahead of Thursday night’s matchup: cornerback Josh Norman is questionable and dealing with a thigh injury that kept him out of the 49ers game. Running back Chris Thompson is dealing with a toe injury and is also questionable as is tight end Vernon Davis (concussion). Fellow tight end Jordan Reed, who has a history of concussions, was placed on injured reserve last week.

Minnesota News and Notes

Adam Thielen injured his hamstring during Minnesota’s win over the Lions. He is OUT for Thursday night. He has scored four touchdowns over his past three games.

After a dust-up between himself and his receiving corps, Kirk Cousins has flipped the script and leads the NFL with 9.1 yards per pass attempt and is completing nearly 70 percent of his passes with 13 touchdowns through seven games. However, Cousins may get a week off from winning games with his arm as the Redskins allow the sixth-most rushing yards per game at 134.4.

After a light workload against the Eagles, Dalvin Cook racked up 142 rush yards on 25 carries against the Lions, a rush defense that ranks just behind the Redskins. Cook has now rushed for 110 or more yards in five of his seven games this season and averages 5.5 yards per rush. With Thielen out, this is a great spot to lean on Cook once more.

Betting Pick: Redskins +16 / OVER 41

The short week and absence of Thielen makes me believe 16 points is too much for Minnesota to shoulder and I think on an indoor track, Keenum and Terry McLaurin will reconnect and put some points on the board (late?), albeit in a losing effort.