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The Pick Six: Week 1 NFL Picks

NFL Pick Six - Week 1 Article - Lamar Jackson

In the gambling community, there is no better time of the year than when football season starts. Week 1 of the NFL season got underway on Thursday with the Packers vs the Bears and now we get into the nitty-gritty where I make a ton of bets and don’t move from my couch for seven hours.

Each week during the NFL season, I give you my six favorite plays on the moneyline, spread or total. Here we go with Week 1!

All betting odds courtesy of Bovada

Ravens -7 vs Dolphins (-110)

Out of all the picks I’m making this week, this is the one I have the most confidence in. The Ravens have been consistently one of the best defenses in the NFL and they get to face a team that has almost no offensive weapons.

The Dolphins traded away their left tackle and WR2 to the Texans and while Ryan Fitzpatrick can sling it, he doesn’t have the personnel to exploit Baltimore. When the Ravens faced a similarly inept squad in the Bills last year in Week 1, they creamed them 45-3. This spread should be closer to -10 so I think this is good value.

Ravens vs Dolphins Game Center

Jets -3 vs Bills (-105)

As I just mentioned in my pick above, the Bills offense stinks. The oddsmakers are essentially making this game a pick’em with the Jets as the home team but New York’s defense is legit!

They are strong at every level of the defense and, honestly, I don’t know how the Bills are going to score. Josh Allen had the worst completion percentage for a starting quarterback last season and the J-E-T-S aren’t going to be caught off guard when Allen takes off from the pocket. Look for the Jets to make a statement with their running game.

Bills vs Jets Game Center

Browns and Rams Moneyline Parlay (+143)

I love these two teams to win outright but I’m not confident enough in the Browns spread to take them at -6. The Titans always worry me with their tendency to keep games close and Cleveland is still unproven despite everyone pegging them to win the AFC North.

As for the Rams, I still think they’re the best team in the NFC and while the Panthers can be a feisty opponent for anyone because of Cam Newton, I’m not convinced he’s fully healthy. I suspect his foot issue will still give him problems in this game and will make it difficult for them to score more than 20 points. I love this parlay!

Titans vs Browns Game Center

Rams vs Panthers Game Center

UNDER 45.5 Giants vs Cowboys

Call it the Dak Prescott effect or the Eli Manning debacle but when these two teams face each other, points are hard to come by. Since the start of the 2016 season when Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott came to the Cowboys, they have faced the Giants six times.

The UNDER has hit in five of those games and the teams have averaged a combined score of 37 points, but that mark should be lower as it was driven up by a meaningless Week 17 game last season in which they both scored over 30 points and key players were missing. If you take away that game and just use the previous five, the average combined score is 28.2. Stick with the UNDER in this one.

Giants vs Cowboys Game Center

Jaguars +4 vs Chiefs

Out of all the home underdogs for Week 1, this is the one game where I feel the home team can win outright. Look, I love the Chiefs and think they’re at least going to the AFC championship game but the Jaguars are a scary team if they get competent quarterback play.

Nick Foles joined them in the offseason and anything is a step up from Blake Bortles. The other sneaky angle that no one seems to be talking about is how horrible the Chiefs defense is. They were ranked 27th in rushing yards allowed and 31st in passing yards allowed per game. Give me the Jags to cover the four points.

Chiefs vs Jaguars Game Center

OVER 52.5 Texans vs Saints

My only pick for Monday Night Football, I think this game goes way OVER. It’s always a trendy pick to think a lot of points are coming when the Saints play at home and I’m happy to ride this trend if the total is in the low 50s. The Saints offense is typically strong and they averaged 34.1 points per home game last year while topping 40 four times against quality defenses.

This bet feels like it may come down to how the Texans do offensively and I’m encouraged by the addition of a new left tackle to protect Deshaun Watson’s blind side. Watson was one of the most hit quarterbacks last year and he can be dangerous when given time in the pocket to scramble or find DeAndre Hopkins on deep routes. I think we see 60 points in this matchup.

Texans vs Saints Game Center