After a bounce-back performance for my picks in Week 8, I came crashing back to Earth in Week 9 as I completely misjudged the Rams-Saints game. 80 combined points with the Saints dropping 35 points in the first half was fun to watch but it cost me two picks to bring my record in Week 9 to 2-4.
I’m still optimistic going into Week 10 as I think there is some great value on the board for bettors (like myself) looking to rebound and recoup some losses.
Each week during the NFL season, I give you my six favorite plays on the moneyline, spread or total. Here we go with Week 10!
The Pick: Saints -5 vs Bengals
Look, I’m ready to admit that betting against the Saints when they hosted the Rams was a mistake. I won’t make that same error when they head to Bengal Country. The Saints have been beasts on the road this season at 4-0 SU and ATS with an average win margin of 8 points per game. Two of those games were won by double-digits and the Bengals offense will be hampered now that their top passing option in AJ Green is out with a toe injury. A case can be made that the Saints are the best team in the NFL now so five points is an easy option.
The Pick: Patriots -6.5 vs Titans
A rematch from last year’s playoffs, the Pats should destroy the Titans. When they faced each other in Foxborough last January, the Patriots won 35-14 and scored 28 unanswered points while keeping Marcus Mariota in check. Another trend that has me excited about taking the Pats to cover the spread is how they’ve performed before their bye week as New England has gone 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS while beating teams by an average margin of 22.3 points in that spot. There aren’t too many teams to lean on for a spread larger than 6 points but the Patriots fall into that category.
The Pick: UNDER 37 Bills vs Jets
46 points. That’s how many the Bills have scored over their last six games and now they’ll be facing career backup Josh McCown for the Jets. New York has gone three straight games of scoring less than 20 points and the offenses in this matchup can be best defined as anemic. I don’t know if this total can be set low enough so get on it now because it could drop to lower than 35, which still seems like a winning bet.
The Pick: Redskins +3 vs Buccaneers
This pick may not be very popular as the Redskins got whooped at home by the Falcons but I think they should win vs the Bucs. The ‘Skins only road loss this season was to a dominant Saints team and prior to that, won three straight against the Panthers, Giants and Cowboys who I think are all better than the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay can’t seem to get out of their own way and with Ryan Fitzpatrick back under center, that means it’s almost time for another Pick-Six-Patrick showing to rear its ugly head.
The Pick: OVER 50 Seahawks vs Rams
Any time the total is set at less than 55 points in a Rams game, you should definitely take the OVER. The Rams average 33.2 points per game and have only been held to less than 30 points twice this season. The part that gets overlooked when LA is rolling teams is that their defense quietly gives up a lot of points too as they’ve allowed an average of 27.3 points per game over their last six contests. Now, I’m not saying the Seahawks are going to come in and drop 30 points on the Rams but they did score 31 on them at home and are averaging 25.7 over their last four games. Take the OVER and watch the Rams come out like gangbusters on offense.
The Pick: UNDER 43 Cowboys vs Eagles
As my betting colleague Joe Osborne wrote in his preview for this game, scoring is tough to come by for the Dallas Cowboys. As someone who witnessed that first-hand vs the Titans, the Cowboys offense is a mess. They're only averaging 13.5 points per game on the road this season and are now on a streak of eight straight UNDERs in away games. Philly’s defense is still legit and the UNDER has hit in eight of its last nine home games so I expect this game to be an Eagles win with less than 40 points scored.
Gilles’ record after six weeks: 24-30
