Odds Shark Top Sportsbooks
*Terms and Conditions apply to all bonus offers on this website. Visit operator for details.

Week 10: Betting Primer

Last week, we took a look at a trend that had road teams – and, in particular, road teams in divisional games – dominating against the spread up until that point of the season. I pointed out that the trends were likely to slow down based on the results from previous seasons, and what do ya know, they came to a crashing halt with home teams covering the spread in 12 games!

While I’ll still be keeping a very open mind to fading road teams in divisional games, I wanted to take a look at other big-time, league-wide trends to see if there’s another spot for us to fade — and I think I’ve got one.

Coming into the Week 10 Thursday nighter, the UNDER has hit in 70.4 percent of prime-time games. Looking back on recent years, this number doesn’t appear to be sustainable as the UNDER has only hit in 47.7 percent of prime-time games over the past five seasons.

The UNDER has hit in 70.4% of night games so far this season!

Looking at a bigger sample size, over the past 10 seasons, the OVER/UNDER record in prime-time games sits at 49.94 percent. Here’s a breakdown by season, with the UNDER percentage in brackets:

OVER/UNDER Record in Prime-time Games:
  • 2018: 24-25-1 (51.0%)
  • 2017: 25-22-1 (46.8%)
  • 2016:  24-25-2 (51%)
  • 2015: 21-29-1 (58%)
  • 2014: 34-16 (32%)
  • 2013: 27-22 (44.9%)
  • 2012: 17-29-2 (63%)
  • 2011: 23-19 (45.2%)
  • 2010: 21-19-1 (47.5%)
  • 2009: 16-24 (60%)

Does this mean an overwhelming number of prime-time OVERs are about to hit? Not necessarily, but it’s fair to assume that we’ll see more OVERs than UNDERs down the stretch as that 70.4 percent number is a pretty big outlier up until this point of the season.

With the data to back it up, look for that number to get sucked back closer to 50 percent, which is fantastic because higher-scoring football makes for better football!

Finding Value in Everyday Life

Those close to me can confirm that I’m a major proponent of finding value in many areas of life outside of sports betting.

There’s many ways life can take advantage of us, but I’m not about that BS. Here’s my top three tips to add value to your life outside of the boring stuff like finding purpose, falling in love or having kids:

Expiration dates: Don’t be the chump who grabs the first carton of milk or loaf of bread you see at the grocery store. These are often the least fresh and sometimes have expiration dates that are only a few days away. Instead, take 10 seconds and do some digging. You’ll end up with a better-tasting product with more shelf life.

Ironing: What a pain in the ass it is to take an ironing board and iron out of a closet to get the wrinkles out of your clothes. Instead, simply sprinkle them with a little bit of water, tear a sliver of fabric softer off a sheet, and throw them in the dryer for 10 minutes. They’ll smell fresh and be wrinkle-free.

Free Breakfast: If you own a decent enough looking suit or even dress pants and a nice shirt, you can easily get away with walking into a hotel and helping yourself to the free continental breakfast. Just don’t make a big show of it and avoid going to the same location too frequently. 

By following these steps, you’ll save yourself a lot of grief. Adding these incremental changes to your life will build character and give you a major leg up on the stiffs who are drinking milk that expires that day while ironing their clothes that they plan on wearing to a breakfast that they’ll be paying for.

NFL Week 10 Stats and Betting Trends

Chargers-Raiders
  • The Raiders are second in third-down conversion percentage. The Chargers are 25th in opponent third-down conversion percentage.
  • The total has gone UNDER in seven of the Chargers' last eight games. (Avg combined score: 37.13)
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Chargers' last five games vs the Raiders. (Avg combined score: 34.0)
  • The total has gone UNDER in 10 of the Raiders' last 11 games vs divisional opponents.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 10 of the Chargers' last 12 games vs divisional opponents.
  • The Chargers are 4-10 SU in their last 14 games vs their division on the road.
  • The Chargers are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after consecutive ATS wins.
  • The total has gone OVER in five of the Raiders' last six games. (Avg combined score: 53.33)
  • The Raiders are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games at home.
Lions-Bears
  • The Bears are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games vs divisional opponents.
  • Bears home games have an average combined score of 32.25.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 15 of the Lions' last 20 games vs their division on the road.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 10 of the Bears' last 13 games. (Avg combined score: 33.54)
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Bears' last five games vs divisional opponents.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the Lions' last seven games vs the Bears. (Avg combined score: 41.14)
  • The Bears are allowing 15.4 points over their last seven home games.
  • The Lions are 2-9 SU in their last 11 games as road underdogs.
  • The Lions are 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS in their last seven games vs divisional opponents.
  • The Bears are 5-1 SU and ATS in their last six games at home vs teams with losing records.
  • The Lions are 9-3 SU in their last 12 games vs the Bears.
Falcons-Saints
  • The Saints lead the NFL in net yards per play over their last three games.
  • The Falcons have an NFL-worst first-half point differential of -11.75.
  • The Falcons have allowed 38 points per game over their last three road games.
  • Falcons road games have had an average combined score of 60.75.
  • The Saints are averaging a league-low three penalties per game over their last three games. The Falcons are averaging the most penalties per game on the road this season.
  • The Saints are 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games after a bye.
  • The total has gone OVER in nine of the Saints' last 11 games after a bye.
  • The Falcons are 0-5 ATS in their last five games on the road.
  • The Falcons are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as a double-digit underdog.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the Falcons' last six games vs their division on the road.
  • The Falcons are 8-2 SU in their last 10 games after a bye.
  • The Saints are 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games vs their division at home.
Bills-Browns
  • Over their last three road games, the Bills have allowed just 12.33 points per game. Over their last three home games, the Browns have allowed 31.67 points per game.
  • The Bills have a league-high red-zone TD scoring percentage.
  • The Browns average a league-high 9.4 penalties per game, including 11.7 at home.
  • Bills road games have had an average combined score of 32 points.
  • The Bills are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the Bills' last eight games. (Avg combined score: 36.13)
  • The Bills are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as an underdog.
  • The Browns are 0-4 ATS in their last four games at home.
  • The Browns are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 games as home favorites.
  • The Browns are 1-13 ATS in their last 14 games at home vs teams with winning records.
Ravens-Bengals
  • The Ravens have an NFL-best 7-1 ATS first-quarter record. The Bengals rank 29th in first-quarter scoring with 2.9 points.
  • The Ravens rank first in time of possession. The Bengals are a disgraceful 29th.
  • The Ravens are tied for second in net yards per play over their last three games. The Bengals are last during this span.
  • Over their last eight home games, the Bengals are allowing an average of 31.75 points. The Ravens are averaging 35.75 points over their last four road games.
  • The Ravens are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games on the road.
  • The Ravens are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games as a double-digit favorite.
  • The Ravens are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games vs divisional opponents.
  • The Bengals are 0-10 SU in their last 10 games. (Avg losing margin: 9.7)
  • The Bengals are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games at home.
  • The total has gone OVER in six of the Bengals' last eight games at home. (Avg combined score: 52.75)
  • The total has gone OVER in three of the Ravens' last four games vs the Bengals. (Avg combined score: 50.0)
  • The Bengals are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games at home vs teams with winning records.
  • The Ravens are 1-6 SU in their last seven games on the road vs the Bengals.
Cardinals-Buccaneers
  • The total has gone OVER in the Buccaneers' last six games. (Avg combined score: 66.67)
  • The Cardinals are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as road underdogs.
  • The Cardinals are 4-15 SU in their last 19 games in the early afternoon.
  • The Buccaneers are 2-10 SU in their last 12 games.
  • The Buccaneers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as home favorites.
  • The total has gone UNDER in three of the Cardinals' last four games on the road. (Avg combined score: 44.25)
Chiefs-Titans
  • The Titans are averaging 15.4 points over their last five games. The Chiefs are averaging 36.78 points over their last nine road games.
  • The Chiefs are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in their last four games on the road.
  • The total has gone OVER in 11 of the Chiefs' last 14 games on the road. (Avg combined score: 64.79)
  • The total has gone OVER in the Chiefs' last six games in the early afternoon.
  • The Titans are 18-6 SU in their last 24 games at home.
  • The total has gone OVER in six of the Titans' last eight games at home. (Avg combined score: 41.0)
  • The Titans are 3-7 SU and ATS in their last 10 games before a bye.
Dolphins-Colts
  • The Dolphins are 0-10 SU in their last 10 games on the road. (Avg losing margin: 17.9)
  • The Dolphins are 0-7 SU and 2-5 ATS in their last seven games as a double-digit underdog.
  • The Dolphins are 2-18 SU and 4-16 ATS in their last 20 games on the road vs teams with winning records.
  • The Dolphins have allowed 34.4 points over their last five road games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the Dolphins' last seven games. (Avg combined score: 41.43)
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Dolphins' last five games in the late afternoon.
  • The total has gone OVER in four of the Colts' last five games at home. (Avg combined score: 48.4)
  • The Colts are 4-0 ATS in their last four games at home after failing to cover in their most recent home game.
  • The Dolphins are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games on the road vs the Colts.
Panthers-Packers
  • The Packers have the fourth-highest red-zone TD scoring percentage. Carolina ranks LAST in opponent red-zone TD percentage.
  • The Packers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games after an ATS loss.
  • The Panthers are 7-22-1 SU in their last 30 games on the road vs teams with winning records.
  • The Packers are 16-3 SU in their last 19 games as home favorites.
  • The Packers are 20-6 SU in their last 26 games at home after consecutive road games.
  • The total has gone OVER in the Panthers' last four games. (Avg combined score: 59.5)
  • The total has gone OVER in five of the Packers' last seven games. (Avg combined score: 52.14)
  • The total has gone OVER in the Panthers' last seven games vs the Packers. (Avg combined score: 57.71)
  • The Panthers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games vs the Packers.
Rams-Steelers
  • The Rams are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games after a bye. Under McVay, they’re 2-0 ATS, with wins of 14 and 34!
  • The Rams are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as favorite.
  • The Rams are 6-0 SU and ATS in their last six games on the East Coast.
  • The Rams are 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS in their last six games on the road.
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the Rams' last eight games on the road. (Avg combined score: 44.0)
  • The total has gone OVER in 14 of the Steelers' last 20 games at home. (Avg combined score: 53.5)
  • The Steelers are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games as an underdog.
  • The Steelers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games at home vs teams with winning records.
Giants-Jets
  • The Jets are a disgrace!
  • The Giants are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games on the road.
  • The Jets average the second-most penalties per game. The Giants average the fourth-fewest.
  • The total has gone OVER in the Giants' last six games on the road. (Avg combined score: 55.33)
  • The Giants are 5-0 ATS in their last five games on the road vs teams with losing records.
  • The Jets are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games.
  • The Jets are 1-8 SU in their last nine games as an underdog.
  • The Giants are 5-1 SU in their last six games vs the Jets.
Vikings-Cowboys
  • The Cowboys lead the NFL in net yards per play.
  • The Cowboys are averaging 31.75 points per game over their last four home games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the Vikings' last eight games on the road. (Avg combined score: 39.5)
  • The Vikings are 0-6 SU and ATS in their last six games as an underdog.
  • The Vikings are 12-2 SU in their last 14 games after a loss.
  • The Vikings are 0-6 ATS in their last six games on the road vs teams with winning records.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 11 of the Vikings' last 14 games at night.
  • The total has gone OVER in three of the Cowboys' last four games. (Avg combined score: 51.5)
  • The Cowboys are 8-1 SU in their last nine games at home.
  • The Vikings are 7-3 SU and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs the Cowboys.
Seahawks-49ers
  • The Seahawks are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games as an underdog.
  • The Seahawks are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 night games vs divisional opponents and 13-2 ATS in their last 15 night games as an underdog.
  • The Seahawks are 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS in their last eight games before a bye.
  • The Seahawks are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games vs the 49ers.
  • The total has gone OVER in 13 of the Seahawks' last 18 games. (Avg combined score: 53.06)
  • The total has gone OVER in six of the Seahawks' last seven games vs divisional opponents.
  • The Seahawks are 6-2 SU in their last eight games vs their division on the road.
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of the Seahawks' last five games before a bye.
  • The 49ers are 8-0 SU in their last eight games. (Avg winning margin: 16.63)
  • The 49ers are 3-16 ATS in their last 19 games as favorite.
  • The 49ers are 1-7 SU in their last eight games vs their division at home.
  • The total has gone OVER in five of the Seahawks' last seven games vs the 49ers. (Avg combined score: 44.43)