It was an up-and-down week after going 3-3 in Week 10 for my NFL picks as the Patriots let myself and legions of other bettors down in Tennessee. I was very happy with my Saints and Redskins bets as I had them pegged as winners from the second the lines were released, whereas the Jets-Bills total blew my mind when the Bills inexplicably scored 41 points themselves.
I’m remaining optimistic going into Week 11 as I think there is some great value on the board for bettors (like myself) looking to rebound and recoup some losses.
Each week during the NFL season, I give you my six favorite plays on the moneyline, spread or total. Here we go with Week 11!
The Pick: Over 51 Buccaneers vs Giants
I’m avoiding the spreads altogether on this dumpster fire of a game but I do think there’s money to be made on an OVER for this one. For starters, the Buccaneers defense is the worst in the NFL, allowing 32.3 points per game and ranking near the bottom of most defensive categories. They also lead the league in turnovers while owning the title of best OVER team in the league with a 7-2 O/U record and an average combined score of 58.1 points per game. I’m overlooking how poor the Giants have been offensively this year and think this will be a shootout.
The Pick: Cardinals -4.5 vs Raiders
This may be the only time I’ll ever pick the Cardinals this season and after watching the Raiders last week, I don’t think Oakland should be closer than 10 points on the spread to any team. The Raiders have dropped five straight and have failed to score double-digit points in three of their last four games. The Raiders are 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS in four road games this season and have lost each of those games by an average of 14 points per contest. Enough said.
The Pick: Steelers -5 vs Jaguars
The revenge game on the docket for Week 11, the Steelers should win this one handily. Pittsburgh is riding a five-game win streak and its defense has been stellar during that span, holding teams to 18.6 points per game. Even though the Jags have Leonard Fournette back, the Steelers are a top-five ranked team vs the run and the Jaguars are only averaging 15.5 points per game over their last seven (1-6 SU and 1-5-1 ATS). I think the Steel Curtain puts an end to the Jags season.
The Pick: Colts ML vs Titans
Look, I get that the Colts’ three-game win streak is over arguably the three worst teams in the NFL (Bills, Raiders, Jaguars) but it’s clear that Indy is on the upswing and Andrew Luck is starting to look like himself again. Luck has thrown 10 touchdowns to only one interception and completed over 70 percent of his passes in those games. I know the Titans will be feeling good after knocking the Patriots off at home but they’ve been a terrible road bet since the start of last season at 5-7 SU and ATS in 12 games, including an ugly 13-12 loss to the Bills this year. When you factor in that the Colts are 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS in the last 10 games in this matchup, I’m surprised that Indy isn’t favored by more.
The Pick: OVER 56 Eagles vs Saints
Although the total may seem high, when the game involves the Saints at home, it’s best to take the OVER. The Saints have scored 96 points in the last two weeks and are the highest-scoring team in the NFL. Even against a stout defense like the Eagles, I think New Orleans will score at least 35 points. While Philly has struggled over the last month, the defending champs are still averaging close to 24 points per game and the Saints defense will give up points. Take the OVER all day.
The Pick: Chiefs +3.5 vs Rams
Why the Chiefs aren’t favored has me confused. Their only loss was to the Patriots on the road by a field goal and they have pretty much decimated any other team in their path. The Rams defense has been suspect for a few weeks now (allowing 34.3 points per game over the last three); the Chiefs defense has been sneaky good with 13 interceptions (ranked fourth) and has allowed the sixth-fewest third-down conversions in the NFL. I’m not even close to saying KC will roll the Rams but I think they can win, which means they can certainly cover the spread.
Gilles’ record after 10 weeks: 27-33
