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Week 11 NFL Betting Picks, Trends and Stats Primer

Week 11 NFL Best Bets

It is quite possibly the most impressive betting trend there is. Since Pete Carroll took over as head coach of the Seahawks, they’re an unbelievable 23-6-3 ATS in night games with outright wins in 25 of those 32 games. At home during the night under Carroll, they’re 13-3-2 ATS with outright wins in 16 of those 18 games.

That’s pretty impressive stuff and the Seahawks will be able to extend this trend on Thursday night at home vs the Packers. Many of you will be reading this after the game took place, so depending on the result, this opener might be completely worthless or you could be kicking yourself for not getting in on this incredibly profitable situation.

If you follow our NFL content here at OddsShark, you’ll often come across nighttime trends for our coverage of prime-time games and that Seahawks record has got me wondering if some teams are actually better or worse once the sun goes down or if it’s just coincidental. I personally believe that some teams and players simply get thrown out of whack when you switch up their routine of playing in customary day games. The same goes for pitchers in baseball who have extreme discrepancies in their day/night splits.

It’s also possible that some players/teams prefer playing in these big spots during the night. Russell Wilson appears to be one of these players as evidenced by his 19-5-1 SU record in night games with a 104.9 quarterback rating.

While the Seahawks have been a long-standing big money bet in this spot, there’s a handful of teams who are downright awful at night. Here’s some teams who are trending in the wrong direction:

  • Buccaneers 5-14 ATS (5-14 SU)
  • Rams 4-12-1 ATS (5-12 SU)
  • Broncos 2-7-1 ATS (3-7 SU)
  • Dolphins 4-15-1 ATS (5-15 SU)
  • Texans 5-23-1 ATS (9-20 SU)

Be sure to keep an eye out for “nighttime trends” for future prime-time games and good luck in Week 11!

Best Bets for Week 11

Based primarily on the content in this article, here’s my best bets for Week 11 of the NFL season using lines from Thursday, November 15:

  • Seahawks -3
  • Lions +4.5
  • Colts -1
  • Chiefs +3.5
  • Steelers -3 first-half spread
  • Bears -1.5 first-half spread (more on this pick here)
  • Titans vs Colts UNDER 49
  • Raiders vs Cardinals UNDER 41
  • Eagles vs Saints OVER 56
  • Giants team total UNDER 26.5

Stats and Trends for Week 11

Packers at Seahawks
  • The Seahawks are 14-3-2 ATS in their last 19 night games at home (17-2 SU in these games).
  • The road team has lost eight of the last 10 TNF games. Six of the last seven TNF games have gone OVER.
  • The Seahawks are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight games on Thursday.
  • The Seahawks are 24-5-1 SU in their last 30 games at night.
  • At home, the Seahawks have a red-zone TD scoring percentage of 85.71. Over their last three games, the Packers have a red-zone TD scoring percentage of 87.50.
  • The Seahawks rank last in net yards per play at home.
  • The Packers are 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS in their last six games on the road. (Avg losing margin: 11.5)
  • The Packers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games vs the Seahawks.
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the Seahawks' last eight games. (Avg combined score: 45.0)
  • The total has gone OVER in seven of the Packers' last nine games at night.
  • The Packers are 8-2 SU in their last 10 games on the road vs teams with losing records.
Bengals at Ravens
  • The Bengals are allowing 43.33 points over their last three games. The Ravens are allowing 16 points per game over their last four home games.
  • Over their last three games, the Bengals are allowing a league-high 189.3 rushing yards per game. They’re also allowing a league-high 356 passing yards per game over their last three games. They never should have let Pacman Jones leave.
  • The Ravens are 13-3 SU and ATS in their last 16 games after a bye.
  • The Bengals are 8-2 SU in their last 10 games vs the Ravens.
  • The Bengals are 3-1 ATS in their last four games vs the Ravens.
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the Ravens' last seven games. (Avg combined score: 38.0)
  • The total has gone OVER in seven of the Bengals' last 10 games. (Avg combined score: 58.1)
  • The Bengals are 4-1 ATS in their last five games vs divisional opponents.
  • The Bengals are 9-0 SU in their last nine games on the road vs teams with losing records.
Buccaneers at Giants
  • Buccaneers road games have had an average combined score of 70 this season.
  • The Buccaneers are allowing 40.25 points per game over their last four road games.
  • The Giants have a league-worst opponents’ red-zone TD scoring percentage of 87.5.
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of the Giants' last five games at home. (Avg combined score: 38.8)
  • The Buccaneers are 1-5 SU and ATS in their last six games vs the Giants.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 11 of the Buccaneers' last 15 games vs the Giants. (Avg combined score: 36.2)
  • The Giants are 13-5 SU in their last 18 games at home vs teams with losing records.
  • The Giants are 11-29 ATS in their last 40 games at home in November.
  • The total has gone OVER in eight of the Buccaneers' last 10 games. (Avg combined score: 57.8)
  • The Buccaneers are 2-13 SU in their last 15 games on the road.
  • The Buccaneers are 1-6 SU and ATS in their last seven games.
Cowboys at Falcons
  • The Falcons are averaging 32.5 points over their last four home games. The Cowboys are averaging just 14.5 points over their last six road games.
  • At home, the Falcons have an NFL-best 87.50 red-zone TD scoring percentage.
  • The total has gone OVER in six of the Falcons' last eight games. (Avg combined score: 58.5)
  • The Cowboys are 1-3 SU and ATS in their last four games on the road vs the Falcons.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the Cowboys' last six games on the road vs the Falcons.
  • The Falcons are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games in the early afternoon.
  • The Falcons are 4-0 SU and ATS in their last four games at home after consecutive road games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Cowboys' last nine games on the road. (Avg combined score: 33.0)
  • The Cowboys are 0-5 SU in their last five games after a win.
Panthers at Lions
  • The Lions rank last in net yards per play over their last three games.
  • The Panthers have allowed 33.67 points per game over their last three games.
  • The Panthers are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games as road favorites.
  • Over their last three games, the Panthers have an opponents’ red-zone TD scoring percentage of 100.
  • The Panthers are 6-1 SU in their last seven games vs the Lions.
  • The total has gone OVER in four of the Panthers' last five games vs the Lions. (Avg combined score: 52.0)
  • The total has gone OVER in seven of the Lions' last 10 games. (Avg combined score: 49.2)
  • The Lions are 0-5 SU and ATS in their last five games at home vs teams with winning records.
  • The Panthers are 1-6 SU in their last seven games on the road.
  • The Panthers are 7-2 SU in their last nine games after a loss.
Steelers at Jaguars
  • The Steelers are averaging 36 points per game over their last three games. The Jags are averaging just 14.4 over their last five games.
  • Jaguars home games have had an average combined score of 35.6 this season.
  • The total has gone UNDER in three of the Steelers' last four games vs the Jaguars. (Avg combined score: 45.5)
  • The Steelers have a first-half point differential of +7, which is tied for second-best in the NFL. The Jaguars are at -3.67.
  • The Jaguars are allowing the fewest passing yards per game at 200.6. At home, they’re allowing just 144.5 per game.
  • The Steelers lead the league with a 78.57 red-zone scoring percentage. Over their last three games, they’re at 90%.
  • The Steelers are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games on the road vs the Jaguars.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 11 of the Jaguars' last 15 games in the early afternoon.
  • The Jaguars are 8-2 SU in their last 10 games at home.
  • The Steelers are 9-0-1 SU in their last 10 games on the road. (Avg winning margin: 7.9)
  • The total has gone OVER in eight of the Steelers' last 11 games. (Avg combined score: 57.0)
  • The Steelers are 5-0 SU and ATS in their last five games.
  • The Jaguars are 0-5 SU in their last five games. (Avg losing margin: 14.2)
Texans at Redskins
  • The Texans are allowing an average of just 15 points over their last four games.
  • The Texans are 6-0 SU in their last six games. (Avg winning margin: 7.83)
  • The Redskins are 4-11 SU in their last 15 games after a win.
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the Redskins' last eight games at home. (Avg combined score: 38.75)
  • The Redskins are 6-2 SU and ATS in their last eight games at home.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 10 of the Texans' last 14 games after a bye.
  • The Texans are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games.
Titans at Colts
  • The Titans are averaging just 13.25 points over their last four road games. The Colts are averaging 33.33 points over their last three home games.
  • Titans road games have had an average combined score of 33.6 this season.
  • Over their last three games, the Titans are allowing just 53 rushing yards per game.
  • The Titans have a league-best opponents’ red-zone TD scoring percentage of 34.78.
  • The Titans are 2-11 SU and 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games vs the Colts.
  • The Titans are 1-9 SU in their last 10 games on the road vs the Colts.
  • The Colts are 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 games at home vs teams with winning records.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 12 of the Colts' last 17 games at home. (Avg combined score: 43.41)
  • The Titans are 4-17-1 ATS in their last 22 divisional road games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of the Titans' last five games. (Avg combined score: 34.2)
  • The Titans are 6-0 SU and ATS in their last six games vs divisional opponents. (Avg winning margin: 6.67)
Eagles at Saints
  • The average combined score in Saints home games this season is 67.25.
  • The Saints are averaging 37.25 points over their last four home games.
  • The Saints allow the fewest rushing yards per game at 80.1.
  • The total has gone OVER in six of the Eagles' last eight games vs the Saints. (Avg combined score: 54.13)
  • The total has gone OVER in the Eagles' last five games on the road. (Avg combined score: 57.0)
  • The Eagles are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games on the road vs the Saints.
  • The Saints are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games.
  • The Eagles are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games.
  • The Saints are 8-0 SU in their last eight games. (Avg winning margin: 13.25)
  • The total has gone OVER in 13 of the Saints' last 17 games in the late afternoon.
Raiders at Cardinals
  • The Raiders are averaging 10 points over their last five games. The Cardinals are averaging 13 points over their last five home games.
  • These teams are tied for last in net yards per play this season.
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the Cardinals' last seven games at home. (Avg combined score: 32.43)
  • Over their last three games, the Raiders have a red-zone TD scoring percentage of 33.33
  • The Raiders are 3-1 ATS in their last four games vs the Cardinals.
  • The Cardinals are 21-7-1 SU in their last 29 games as home favorites.
  • The Cardinals are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games after consecutive ATS wins.
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the Raiders' last seven games on the road. (Avg combined score: 38.57)
  • The Raiders are 0-7 SU in their last seven games on the road. (Avg losing margin: 13.71)
Broncos at Chargers
  • The Chargers are allowing an average of just 13.2 points over their last five games.
  • The Broncos are 2-12 SU and 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games on the road.
  • The Broncos are 11-3 SU in their last 14 games vs the Chargers.
  • The Broncos are 5-2 SU and ATS in their last seven games on the road vs the Chargers.
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Broncos' last five games on the road vs the Chargers.
  • The Chargers are 11-1 SU in their last 12 games as favorite.
  • The Chargers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in seven of the Chargers' last eight games vs divisional opponents.
  • The Broncos are 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS in their last seven divisional road games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the Broncos' last eight games. (Avg combined score: 45.88)
Vikings at Bears
  • The UNDER has hit in seven of the last nine SNF games.
  • The Bears lead the league in net yards per play at home.
  • The Bears are averaging 34.33 points over their last six games.
  • Vikings road games have had an average combined score of 56.25 this season.
  • Over their last three games, the Vikings are allowing a league-low 166.3 passing yards per game.
  • The Bears have the best first-half point differential in the league (+9.78). The Vikings are at -1.22.
  • Over their last three games, the Bears have an opponents’ red-zone TD scoring percentage of 100.
  • The Vikings are 3-14 SU in their last 17 games on the road vs the Bears.
  • The Vikings are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games on the road vs the Bears.
  • The Vikings are 6-1 SU in their last seven games vs the Bears.
  • The total has gone UNDER in seven of the Vikings' last nine games vs the Bears. (Avg combined score: 38.33)
  • The total has gone OVER in five of the Bears' last six games. (Avg combined score: 54.33)
  • The Bears are 1-10 SU in their last 11 games vs divisional opponents.
  • The Bears are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games at home vs teams with winning records.
  • The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Vikings' last 10 games at night.
  • The Vikings are 2-6 SU and ATS in their last eight games after a bye.
  • The Vikings are 6-0-1 SU in their last seven games vs divisional opponents. (Avg winning margin: 9.57)
Chiefs at Rams
  • The road team has covered the spread in five straight MNF games.
  • The Chiefs are averaging a league-best 36.8 points per game on the road. The Rams are averaging 34.4 points per game at home.
  • Chiefs road games have had an average combined score of 67.2 this season.
  • On the road, the Chiefs are allowing a league-high 339.8 passing yards per game.
  • Over their last three games, the Rams are allowing the second-most rushing yards per game at 173.3.
  • The Chiefs are 6-0 SU and ATS in their last six games vs the Rams. (Avg winning margin: 20.33)
  • The Rams are 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS in their last eight games on Monday.
  • The Rams are 5-12 SU and 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games at night.
  • The Chiefs are 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS in their last nine games as an underdog.
  • The Chiefs are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games on Monday.
  • The Chiefs are 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in their last five games at night.

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