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Week 11: Betting Primer

The word “reliable” is one that doesn’t come to mind for most teams as far as betting in the NFL is concerned, but if you look hard enough, there’s some hot spots that are hiding and you won’t find them with full-game spreads and totals.

These sneaky little spots can be found with the rarely talked about first-quarter and first-half betting markets.

While the majority of people are focused on full-game bets and props, we’re seeing some big-time early-game trends that are seriously flying under the radar. Some don’t care for these types of bets, but if the point of betting is to win money, then it shouldn’t matter if the bet takes course over one minute or 60.

Here’s the best first-quarter and first-half NFL trends from this season to have on your radar for Week 11 and beyond:

First-Quarter Trends:
  • Ravens 8-1 ATS in last 9
  • Texans 1-7 ATS in last 8
  • Patriots 7-2 in last 9
  • Lions 6-0 ATS in last 6
  • Broncos 5-1 ATS in last 6
  • Titans 3-7 ATS in last 10
  • Rams 0-6 ATS in last 6
First-Half Trends:
  • Buccaneers OVER in 7 straight
  • Bears 0-5 ATS in last 5
  • Cowboys 1-6 ATS in last 7
  • Bears UNDER in 7 of last 9
  • Giants OVER in 6 straight

As you can see, these are some pretty impressive numbers and we even have some that match up for games in Week 11.

Looking at the Ravens, who host the Texans, Baltimore is 8-1 ATS in the first quarter this season, while Houston is on a 1-7 ATS slide. Looking at points scored in the first quarter, the Ravens are averaging 9.4, while the Texans are getting off to extremely slow starts, ranking 31st with an average of just 2.6.

As always with trends, never follow them blindly – make sure you have stats and do other background work such as looking at injury reports to back them up.

Sitcom Character Grit Rankings:

In addition to being a sports nerd, I’m also a TV nerd. Although there’s not as much good comedy on TV these days, I still find myself watching reruns of the classics, which are dominated by extraordinary characters, each with their own unique set of personality traits.

From 1 to 10, here’s my TV comedy character GRIT rankings: 

  1. Ron Swanson: A throwback to men from much earlier generations, he can build anything with his bare hands and maintains a strict diet rich in meat, dairy products and dark-colored liquors.
  2. Dwight Schrute: Owns and operates his own beet farm while maintaining peak performance as a full-time paper salesman.
  3. Tony Micelli: Played by the legendary Tony Danza, he not only persuades someone to give him a full-time job, but he also arranges to move into their house with his daughter, then he becomes romantically involved with them. What a baller!
  4. Kenny Powers: A fastball-throwing, hard-partying legend who takes absolutely no guff off anyone!
  5. Kramer: Constanza said it best: “Do nothing, fall ass-backwards into money, mooch food off your neighbors, and have sex without dating.”
  6. Al Bundy: The former football legend once scored four touchdowns in a high school football game. Enough said.
  7. Charlie Kelly: No job is too grimy for Charlie, who goes all-in on the old expression of one man’s trash being another man’s treasure.
  8. Johnny Drama: Personifies getting knocked down and getting back up.
  9. Captain Raymond Holt: Has gotten very far in life despite not having a personality and only getting by on the bare essentials.
  10. Doug Heffernan: Maybe a bit of a weasel, but about as blue-collar as it gets and landed a very attractive wife despite being a total slob.

Biggest Wimp: Carl Winslow for putting up with Urkel’s BS and just sitting while he macked on his daughter.

And while we get nostalgic, here’s the intro to Who’s The Boss, which will hopefully motivate you to make some winning picks this week!

NFL Stats and Trends for Week 11:

Steelers-Browns
  • The favorite is 2-9 ATS in the last 11 TNF games.
  • These teams rank 28th and 26th in red-zone TD scoring percentage.
  • Over its last three games, Pittsburgh is allowing the lowest opponent third-down conversion percentage and ranks second in sacks per game. Baker Mayfield has been sacked 25 times this season and has the second-most INTs.
  • The Steelers are allowing an average of 16 points over their last six games.
  • The Steelers are 17-3 SU in their last 20 games at night.
  • The Steelers are 7-0-1 SU in their last eight games vs the Browns. (Avg winning margin: 9.63)
  • The Steelers are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog.
  • The Steelers are 7-0-1 SU in their last eight games vs their division on the road.
  • The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Steelers' last nine games on the road. (Avg combined score: 43.33)
  • The total has gone UNDER in 17 of the Browns' last 24 games at home. (Avg combined score: 39.88)
  • The total has gone UNDER in 10 of the Steelers' last 12 games vs their division on the road.
  • The Browns are 2-10-1 SU and 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games vs their division at home.
  • The Browns are 2-14 SU in their last 16 games at home vs teams with winning records.
Texans-Ravens
  • The Ravens have a league-best 8-1 first-quarter ATS record and average 9.4 first-quarter points. The Texans are at 3-6 ATS and rank 31st in first-quarter points at 2.6.
  • Baltimore is second in third-down conversion percentage. Houston is 26th in opponent third-down conversion percentage.
  • Baltimore ranks fifth in red-zone TD scoring percentage. Houston ranks 30th in opponent red-zone TD percentage.
  • The total has gone OVER in six of the Texans' last eight games on the road. (Avg combined score: 49.88)
  • The Texans are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as road underdogs.
  • The Ravens are 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 games as favorite.
  • The Texans are 2-10 SU and ATS in their last 12 games on the road vs teams with winning records.
  • The total has gone OVER in five of the Ravens' last seven games. (Avg combined score: 54.29)
  • The Texans are 0-5 SU in their last five games on the road vs the Ravens. (Avg losing margin: 10.2)
Broncos-Vikings
  • The Vikings are allowing an average of 13.75 points over their last four home games. The Broncos are averaging 15.5 points over their last five road games.
  • Over their last three games, the Broncos are allowing a league-high five sacks per game. The Vikings have allowed the fifth-fewest in this span.
  • The Vikings are 9-1 SU and 10-0 ATS in their last 10 games before a bye.
  • The Vikings are 11-2-1 ATS in their last 14 games at home after failing to cover in their most recent home game.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 15 of the Broncos' last 18 games. (Avg combined score: 37.11)
  • The Broncos are 3-10 SU in their last 13 games.
  • The Broncos are 1-10 SU and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games in the early afternoon.
  • The Vikings are 15-3 SU in their last 18 games at home.
Cowboys-Lions
  • The Lions have a league-best 7-2 ATS first-half record. The Cowboys are at 3-6 ATS.
  • Dallas leads the NFL in third-down conversion percentage. Detroit is 27th in opponent third-down conversion percentage.
  • The Cowboys lead the NFL in net yards per play on the road. The Lions are 25th at home.
  • The Cowboys are 9-3 SU in their last 12 games after a loss.
  • The total has gone OVER in five of the Cowboys' last six games on the road. (Avg combined score: 49.67)
  • The Cowboys are 5-1 ATS in their last six games on the road vs teams with losing records.
  • The Lions are 0-4 ATS in their last four games.
  • The total has gone OVER in three of the Lions' last four games. (Avg combined score: 54.25)
  • The Lions are 2-9 SU and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games at home vs teams with winning records.
  • The total has gone OVER in seven of the Cowboys' last eight games vs the Lions. (Avg combined score: 57.63)
Falcons-Panthers
  • Carolina ranks last in opponent red-zone TD conversion percentage.
  • The Falcons are 6-1 SU and ATS in their last seven games vs the Panthers.
  • The total has gone UNDER in nine of the Falcons' last 12 games vs the Panthers. (Avg combined score: 43.08)
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the Falcons' last seven games vs their division on the road.
  • The Falcons are 1-5 SU and ATS in their last six games as road underdogs.
  • The Falcons are 14-4 SU in their last 18 games vs divisional opponents.
  • The Falcons are 0-6 ATS in their last six games on the road after covering in their most recent road game.
  • The total has gone OVER in four of the Panthers' last five games. (Avg combined score: 55.6)
  • The Panthers are 9-2 SU in their last 11 games as home favorites.
  • The Panthers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games after an ATS loss.
Jaguars-Colts
  • The Jaguars are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight games vs the Colts.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 25 of the Colts' last 32 games vs their division at home.
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the Jaguars' last eight games vs their division on the road.
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of the Jaguars' last five games vs the Colts. (Avg combined score: 34.4)
  • The Jaguars are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games after a bye.
  • The Jaguars are 2-15 SU in their last 17 games vs their division on the road.
  • The Colts are 5-0 SU and ATS in their last five games vs divisional opponents.
  • The Colts are 9-2 SU in their last 11 games at home.
  • The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Colts' last nine games at home in November.
Bills-Dolphins
  • The total has gone UNDER in seven of the Bills' last nine games. (Avg combined score: 36.0)
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the Dolphins' last eight games. (Avg combined score: 39.75)
  • The Bills are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games on the road.
  • The Bills are 4-1 ATS in their last five games vs divisional opponents.
  • The total has gone UNDER in seven of the Bills' last nine games in the early afternoon.
  • The Dolphins are 5-0 ATS in their last five games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the Dolphins' last seven games vs their division at home.
  • The Dolphins are 1-9 SU and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games in the early afternoon.
  • The total has gone OVER in seven of the Bills' last nine games vs the Dolphins. (Avg combined score: 50.0)
Jets-Redskins
  • The Jets are averaging 11.2 points over their last five road games. The Redskins have averaged 7.33 points over their last three home games.
  • These teams rank 32nd and 31st in third-down conversion percentage.
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Redskins' last six games. (Avg combined score: 28.33)
  • The Jets are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games after an ATS win.
  • The Redskins are 0-8 SU in their last eight games at home. (Avg losing margin: 16.88)
  • The Jets are 3-13 SU in their last 16 games as an underdog.
  • The Jets are 0-9 SU and ATS in their last nine games on the road in November.
  • The Jets are 1-7 SU in their last eight games in the early afternoon.
  • The Redskins are 1-5 ATS in their last six games at home.
Cardinals-49ers
  • The Cardinals rank 31st in red-zone TD scoring percentage. The 49ers rank first in opponent red-zone TD percentage.
  • The 49ers are fifth in third-down conversion percentage. Arizona is 30th in opponent third-down conversion percentage.
  • The 49ers are third in net yards per play this season. The Cardinals are 27th.
  • The Cardinals are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games vs their division on the road.
  • The Cardinals are 5-1 ATS in their last six games on the road.
  • The 49ers are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games vs divisional opponents.
  • The total has gone OVER in five of the 49ers' last six games vs divisional opponents.
  • The 49ers are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games at home vs teams with losing records.
  • The Cardinals are 4-0 SU in their last four games on the road vs the 49ers. (Avg winning margin: 9.5)
Saints-Buccaneers
  • The total has gone OVER in the Buccaneers' last seven games. (Avg combined score: 65.29)
  • The Saints are 10-2 SU in their last 12 games on the road.
  • The Saints are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games on the road.
  • The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Saints' last 11 games on the road. (Avg combined score: 43.18)
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the Saints' last six games on the road vs the Buccaneers.
  • The Buccaneers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games as home underdogs.
  • The Buccaneers are 6-22 SU in their last 28 games at home vs teams with winning records.
  • The Saints are 12-4 SU in their last 16 games vs the Buccaneers.
Patriots-Eagles
  • The Patriots have allowed an average of 10.1 points per game over their last 10 games.
  • The Patriots are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games after an ATS loss.
  • The Patriots are 13-3 SU in their last 16 games after a bye.
  • The Eagles are 6-17 SU in their last 23 games as home underdogs.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 15 of the Patriots' last 21 games. (Avg combined score: 42.33)
  • The total has gone UNDER in 12 of the Eagles' last 17 games at home. (Avg combined score: 39.24)
  • The total has gone UNDER in nine of the Patriots' last 10 games in the late afternoon.
  • Nick Foles beat Tom Brady in the Super Bowl once.
  • The Eagles are 10-2 SU and 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games at home vs teams with winning records.
  • The Patriots are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games vs the Eagles.
Bears-Rams
  • The Bears lead the NFL in red-zone TD conversion percentage on the road (88.89%).
  • In seven full games, Mitch Trubisky has thrown just three INTs. Jared Goff has nine.
  • The Bears have allowed 15.67 points over their last six road games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 11 of the Bears' last 14 games. (Avg combined score: 33.5)
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Rams' last four games. (Avg combined score: 34.25)
  • The Rams are 4-0 ATS in their last four games after an ATS loss.
  • The Bears are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games vs the Rams.
  • The Bears are 3-15 SU in their last 18 games as road underdogs.
  • The Bears are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games at night.
  • The Rams are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games.
  • The Rams are 10-3 SU in their last 13 games at home.
Bengals-Raiders
  • The Bengals are averaging 10 points over their last three road games.
  • The Raiders are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games at home.
  • The Bengals are 0-11 SU in their last 11 games. (Avg losing margin: 12.09)
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Bengals' last six games on the road. (Avg combined score: 35.33)
  • The Bengals are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games as road underdogs.
  • The Bengals are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games on the West Coast.
  • The total has gone OVER in six of the Raiders' last seven games. (Avg combined score: 52.86)
  • The Bengals are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games vs the Raiders.
Chiefs-Chargers
  • The Chiefs are 23-2 SU in their last 25 games vs divisional opponents.
  • The Chiefs are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 games vs divisional opponents – 8-3 ATS in their last 11 vs the Chargers.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 11 of the last 15 MNF games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in seven of the Chargers' last nine games. (Avg combined score: 38.56)
  • The Chiefs are 1-5 SU in their last six games at night.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 10 of the Chargers' last 13 games vs divisional opponents.
  • The Chargers are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 games after an ATS loss.
  • The Chargers are 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS in their last five games before a bye.