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The Pick Six: Week 12 Thanksgiving Day Picks

The Pick Six: Week 11 NFL Betting - Thanksgiving Day

Coming off a nice Week 11 where I went 4-2 on my picks, it’s time for the annual tradition of shoving food in my face, ignoring my family and betting on Thanksgiving NFL football.

In a special edition of The Pick Six for Thanksgiving Day, I’ve decided to open up to props for some of my picks since I’m limited to three games. This year’s slate are all divisional games and I think there’s great value with spreads, totals and touchdown scorers.

Here we go with Week 12 - Thanksgiving Day Edition!

The Pick: OVER 40.5 Redskins vs Cowboys

Mark my words: Colt McCoy will surprise people with competent play vs the Cowboys. The longtime backup QB will get his first start since 2014 and he did get a win vs Dallas in his four starts that season. I think because there isn’t much game tape on McCoy to study his tendencies, he can potentially exploit the Cowboys defense. Another factor for me wanting to take the OVER is that it’s hit in three of four games at AT&T Stadium this year with an average combined score of 43.2 points per game. I’m not saying this game will be a shootout but I expect both of these teams to put up 20 points.

The Pick: Bears ML vs Lions

I know a lot of bettors will think I’m crazy for backing the Bears with Chase Daniel at quarterback but this pick is more of an indictment of the Lions. Detroit is a mess offensively and against this defense, I don’t know how it will move the ball. RB Kerryon Johnson has been ruled out along with WR Marvin Jones and with Kenny Golladay the only skill player left worth mentioning, I think the Bears can still pull out the victory.

The Pick: OVER 60 Falcons vs Saints

One hundred and forty-four. That’s how many points the Saints have put on the board over their last three games and now they get to face a divisional rival that they already scored 43 points on this season. The Falcons defense is nearly non-existent as it gives up 27.6 points per game (ranked 27th) and is 28th in passing yards allowed per game. I know taking more than 60 points may be a little unsettling but this one feels like a lock.

The Pick: Adrian Peterson – Anytime TD Scorer +125

AP may be 33 years old but he’s playing like he’s 23. Peterson is coming off a two-touchdown day vs the Texans and with Colt McCoy under center, I expect him to get a lot of work in a pivotal divisional game. Another reason why I like him to score is that the Cowboys defense has allowed a rushing touchdown in three straight games. The value at +125 isn’t amazing but I think AP is All Day against the Cowboys.

The Pick: Mohamed Sanu - Anytime TD Scorer +225

Call this the third-wheel effect but I think Sanu will get into the end zone because so much focus will be placed on Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley. The Saints cornerbacks of Marcus Lattimore and Ken Crawley will have their hands full with that duo, which means Sanu gets matched up with recently acquired Eli Apple. Apple has been torched a few times since coming to the Bayou and Sanu caught a TD vs the Saints back in Week 3.

The Pick: Redskins +4.5 – First-Half Spread

As I mentioned in my previous pick, I expect the Redskins to keep it close and perhaps even take an early lead so the +4.5 is right in my wheelhouse as I think the game will either be tied or the Redskins will have a slight lead at the half. The Redskins are 9-2 ATS in the last 11 games in this matchup and beat the Cowboys earlier in the season so with this being a divisional game, expect it to be back and forth.

Gilles’ record after 11 weeks: 31-35

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