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Week 12 NFL Betting Picks, Trends and Stats Primer

NFL Week 12 Picks and Trends

A few weeks ago I wrote about how underdogs are covering at an unprecedented rate and that if history was an indication, they were due for some regression. Well, that regression hasn’t happened as underdogs are coming off three straight winning weeks.

Entering Week 12, their record stands at 83-68-8 (54.9%). This is significant as underdogs hit at just 49.7 percent over the five-year stretch from 2013 to 2017 with the best single-year record coming in 2015 at 53.9 percent and the worst coming in 2013 at 47.3 percent.

So, what does all this mean with six weeks remaining in the regular season? I still believe that 54.9 percent mark will begin to drop. It’s not guaranteed — nothing is sports betting is — but when you consider that favorites have only come out on top in three of the 11 weeks so far, it makes sense that things could start to even out. As a result, this means more favorites should cover down the stretch.

Let’s get down to business...

Best Bets for Week 12:

Based primarily on the content in this article, here’s my best bets for Week 12 of the NFL season using lines from Thursday, November 22:

  • Colts -7.5
  • Patriots -10
  • Steelers -3
  • Chargers -7 first-half spread
  • Giants vs Eagles UNDER 47
  • Browns vs Bengals OVER 46.5
  • Packers vs Vikings UNDER 47.5
  • Colts Team Total OVER 29
  • Jaguars Team Total UNDER 20.5

Stats and Trends for Week 12:

Browns at Bengals
  • The Bengals are allowing an average of 38.5 points over their last four games. The Browns are allowing an average of 34.67 points over their last three road games.
  • Bengals home games have an average combined score of 57.2 this season. Browns road games are at 56.5.
  • The Browns are 0-7 SU in their last seven games vs the Bengals. (Avg losing margin: 21.43)
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the Browns' last eight games vs the Bengals. (Avg combined score: 37.88)
  • The Bengals have the best red-zone TD scoring percentage in the NFL and have scored a TD on 100% of their red-zone trips over their last three games.
  • The Bengals allow the most rushing yards per game and the second-most passing yards per game.
  • The Browns are 0-25 SU in their last 25 games on the road. (Avg losing margin: 11.68)
  • The Bengals are 13-3 SU in their last 16 games after consecutive losses.
  • The Bengals are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs divisional opponents.
  • The Browns are 1-18-1 SU and 4-15-1 ATS in their last 20 games vs divisional opponents.
Giants at Eagles
  • The Eagles are allowing 13.5 points over their last 10 home games. This season, their home games have an average combined score of 39 points.
  • The Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last four games on the road.
  • The Eagles are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games.
  • The Giants are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games vs the Eagles.
  • The Giants are 1-8 SU in their last nine games vs the Eagles.
  • The total has gone OVER in the Giants' last six games vs the Eagles. (Avg combined score: 53.33)
  • The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Eagles' last 10 games at home. (Avg combined score: 33.4)
  • The Eagles are 8-2 SU in their last 10 games vs divisional opponents.
  • The Giants are 1-6 SU in their last seven games after a win.
49ers at Buccaneers
  • The Buccaneers have a league-worst opponents’ red-zone scoring percentage of 88.89%.
  • The Buccaneers are allowing an average of 34 points per game over their last seven games.
  • Buccaneers home games have an average combined score of 43.25 this season.
  • The Buccaneers have the most turnovers in the league — 29.
  • The 49ers are 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games on the East Coast.
  • The Buccaneers are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games.
  • The total has gone OVER in nine of the Buccaneers' last 11 games. (Avg combined score: 59.18)
  • The 49ers are 17-6 SU in their last 23 games vs the Buccaneers.
  • The Buccaneers are 7-1 SU in their last eight games at home vs teams with losing records.
  • The 49ers are 0-5 SU in their last five games on the road. (Avg losing margin: 5.4)
Jaguars at Bills
  • The Bills are averaging just 12.43 points over their last seven games. The Jaguars are averaging just 14.67 points over their last six games.
  • The Bills allow the fewest passing yards per game in the NFL. The Jaguars allow the third-fewest.
  • The visiting team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven games in this matchup.
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the Bills' last eight games. (Avg combined score: 35.88)
  • The total has gone OVER in five of the Jaguars' last six games vs the Bills. (Avg combined score: 48.0)
  • The Bills are 0-4 SU in their last four games after a win.
  • The Bills are 7-1 SU in their last eight games at home vs teams with losing records.
  • The Jaguars are 0-6 SU in their last six games. (Avg losing margin: 12.5)
Patriots at Jets
  • Over their last three games, the Jets are averaging 8.67 points and over their last three home games, they’ve allowed 37.33 points per game.
  • The Patriots are averaging 31.86 points over their last seven games.
  • Since 2004 when playing in a road game after their bye, the Patriots are 7-2 ATS.
  • The Patriots have a first-half point differential of +5.0. The Jets are at -3.5.
  • The Jets are tied for last in red-zone TD scoring percentage.
  • The Patriots are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs the Jets.
  • The Jets are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as home underdogs.
  • The Patriots are 12-2 SU in their last 14 games vs the Jets.
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Patriots' last four games vs the Jets. (Avg combined score: 39.0)
  • The total has gone OVER in five of the Jets' last seven games. (Avg combined score: 46.71)
  • The Patriots are 16-4 SU and 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games on the road.
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the Patriots' last eight games on the road. (Avg combined score: 44.38)
Raiders at Ravens
  • The Raiders are averaging 12 points over their last three road games.
  • Over their last three games, the Raiders have a league-low red-zone scoring percentage of 14.29%.
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the Ravens' last eight games. (Avg combined score: 38.88)
  • The Ravens are 16-3 SU in their last 19 games when hosting a West Coast team.
  • The Raiders are 3-11 SU and 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games vs the Ravens.
  • The total has gone OVER in the Raiders' last four games vs the Ravens. (Avg combined score: 61.75)
  • The Raiders are 1-5 SU in their last six games on the road vs the Ravens.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 13 of the Raiders' last 17 games. (Avg combined score: 42.76)
  • The Raiders are 5-22 SU in their last 27 games on the East Coast.
  • The Raiders are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after an ATS win.
Seahawks at Panthers
  • The Panthers are averaging 37 points over their last three home games.
  • The Panthers are 10-0 SU and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games at home.
  • The Panthers are 15-2 ATS in their last 17 games after consecutive ATS losses.
  • The Panthers are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games at home after consecutive road games.
  • The total has gone OVER in the Seahawks' last four games vs the Panthers. (Avg combined score: 50.0)
  • The Seahawks are 6-2 SU in their last eight games vs the Panthers.
  • The Seahawks are 6-2 SU in their last eight games in the early afternoon.
  • The total has gone UNDER in three of the Seahawks' last four games on the road. (Avg combined score: 46.75)
  • The Seahawks are 1-4 SU in their last five games as an underdog.
  • At home, the Panthers have a league-worst opponents’ red-zone TD scoring percentage of 90%.
Steelers at Broncos
  • The Steelers are averaging 32.83 points over their last six games.
  • The Steelers are allowing just 138.3 passing yards over their last three games.
  • The Steelers are 10-0-1 SU in their last 11 games on the road. (Avg winning margin: 7.55)
  • The Steelers are 2-7 SU in their last nine games on the road vs the Broncos.
  • The total has gone UNDER in seven of the Broncos' last nine games. (Avg combined score: 45.78)
  • The total has gone UNDER in 21 of the Steelers' last 27 games on the road. (Avg combined score: 40.41)
  • The Broncos are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as home underdogs.
  • The total has gone OVER in nine of the Steelers' last 12 games vs the Broncos. (Avg combined score: 48.83)
Cardinals at Chargers
  • The Chargers have a first-half points differential of +6.4. The Cardinals are at -6.8.
  • The Chargers lead the league in net yards per play. The Cardinals rank 31st.
  • The Cardinals are averaging 14.5 points over their last 10 games. The Chargers are allowing an average of 14.83 points over their last six games.
  • The total has gone OVER in 15 of the Cardinals' last 21 games on the road. (Avg combined score: 48.1)
  • The Cardinals are 4-1 ATS in their last five games on the road vs the Chargers.
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Chargers' last four games. (Avg combined score: 38.0)
  • The Chargers are 6-16 ATS in their last 22 games at home after failing to cover in their most recent home game.
  • The Cardinals are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games as an underdog.
Dolphins at Colts
  • Over their last 12 road games, the Dolphins are averaging 14.33 points. They’ve allowed 34.5 points per game over their last four road games.
  • The Dolphins are tied for last in net yards per play on the road.
  • The Dolphins are tied for last in red-zone TD scoring percentage. Over their last three games, they allowed their opponents to score a TD on 100% of red-zone trips.
  • The Colts are averaging 36.5 points over their last four games.
  • The Dolphins are 1-9 SU and ATS in their last 10 games on the road.
  • The Dolphins are 1-3 ATS in their last four games vs the Colts.
  • The Dolphins are 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS in their last eight games on the road vs the Colts.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 13 of the Colts' last 18 games at home. (Avg combined score: 43.67)
  • The Colts are 11-2-1 ATS in their last 14 games in November.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the Dolphins' last six games on the road. (Avg combined score: 45.17)
Packers at Vikings
  • The total has gone UNDER in seven of the last 10 SNF games.
  • The Vikings have a league-best opponents’ red-zone scoring percentage of 40%.
  • The average combined score in Vikings home games this season is 40.
  • The Packers are 0-7 SU and 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games on the road. (Avg losing margin: 10.29)
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the Packers' last eight games vs the Vikings. (Avg combined score: 40.25)
  • The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Vikings' last 11 games at night.
  • The Vikings are 6-1-1 SU in their last eight games vs divisional opponents.
  • The Vikings are 14-3-1 SU in their last 18 games as favorite.
  • The total has gone OVER in eight of the Packers' last 10 games at night.
  • The Packers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs divisional opponents.
Titans at Texans
  • Over their last four road games, the Titans are averaging 15.6 points.
  • The road team is 5-0-1 ATS in the last six MNF games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the Titans' last six games. (Avg combined score: 36.5)
  • The Titans are 3-1 SU in their last four games vs the Texans.
  • The Titans are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games vs the Texans.
  • The total has gone UNDER in three of the Titans' last four games vs the Texans. (Avg combined score: 46.5)
  • The Texans are 7-0 SU in their last seven games. (Avg winning margin: 7.0)
  • The Texans are 5-23-1 ATS in their last 29 games at night.
  • The Texans are 6-2 SU in their last eight games vs their division at home.
  • The Titans are 5-20 SU in their last 25 games vs their division on the road.
  • The Titans are 6-1 SU and ATS in their last seven games vs divisional opponents.