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Week 12: Betting Primer

Being resilient with the ability to bounce back is an admirable quality to have. For some, it could be something simple like joining a gym in an attempt to better themselves after their girlfriend cheats on them with a few different guys. For others, it could be something like upgrading their wardrobe in an attempt to build confidence after their wife leaves them for another guy.

Being resilient, or bouncing back, isn’t just a quality reserved for men who’ve had their hearts torn out, though. It’s also something we must be heavily aware of when making NFL picks each week.

It’s easy to dismiss a team after a humiliating loss, but this is a mistake the casual bettor makes too often. Look at the New Orleans Saints, for example, who had an embarrassing loss at home as a huge favorite vs the Falcons in Week 10. Primarily as a result, the Bucs were a popular underdog pick in their Week 11 matchup, but the Saints got back on track and absolutely smashed them.

On the other hand, we have non-resilient teams, kinda like the guy who turns to drugs and alcohol after his fiancée sleeps with his best friend. We have countless examples of teams who follow up a big win with a disappointing loss like those awful Bucs who this season have followed up major upset wins with disheartening losses in the following game.

There are countless examples of this across the league and not just small sample sizes. It just so happens I have lists of the best trends, both straight up and against the spread, for each situation. Check it out:

Best Straight-up Records After a Loss:
  • Patriots: 46-8 SU
  • Steelers: 22-8 SU
  • Seahawks: 19-3 SU
  • Cowboys: 9-3 SU
  • Vikings: 11-2 SU
  • Chiefs: 7-2 SU
  • Rams: 8-3 SU
  • Saints: 7-0 SU
Best ATS Records After a Loss:
  • Patriots: 16-5 ATS
  • Raiders: 7-1 ATS
  • Seahawks: 5-1-1 ATS
  • Colts: 5-1 ATS
Worst Records After a Win:
  • Browns: 4-12 SU
  • Cardinals: 3-10 SU
  • Jets: 2-7 SU
  • Giants: 3-7 SU
  • Raiders: 4-10 SU
Worst ATS Records After a Win:
  • Eagles: 4-12-1 ATS
  • Falcons: 3-8 ATS
  • Titans: 1-5 ATS
  • Raiders: 2-12 ATS
  • Jaguars: 2-6 ATS

Unsurprisingly, it’s mainly good teams that are winning immediately after a loss and crap teams that can’t string wins together, but the lesson here is to not make judgments based on a one-game sample size.

It’s incredibly difficult to play at an elite level in all 16 regular-season games, and by that same token, even the awful teams can muster a decent performance where they might catch a break or two a few times each season.

It’s easier said than done to determine what’s an outlier performance and what isn’t, but in my experience, the larger sample size is always more important.

And, for the love of God, if someone cheats on you, just join a gym and buy some new clothes.

Best Stats and Trends for Week 12

Colts-Texans
  • Deshaun Watson is 9-2 SU in his career following a loss.
  • In six career prime-time games, Watson has 16 TDs to 2 INTs.
  • The Colts are 6-1 SU and 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games on the road vs the Texans.
  • The Colts are 4-0 SU and ATS in their last four games vs their division on the road.
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the Colts' last seven games vs their division on the road.
  • The total has gone UNDER in seven of the Texans' last eight games at home. (Avg combined score: 40.63)
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the Texans' last six games vs divisional opponents.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the Colts' last seven games vs the Texans. (Avg combined score: 43.57)
  • The Texans are 12-3 SU in their last 15 games as favorite.
  • The Texans are 18-4 SU in their last 22 games at home after consecutive road games.
  • The Texans are 7-23-1 ATS in their last 31 games at night.
Broncos-Bills
  • The Broncos rank 30th in third-down completion percentage. The Bills rank sixth in opponent third-down completion percentage.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 15 of the Broncos' last 19 games. (Avg combined score: 37.79)
  • The total has gone UNDER in seven of the Bills' last 10 games. (Avg combined score: 38.1)
  • The Broncos are 2-11 SU in their last 13 games as road underdogs.
  • The Bills are 10-2 SU in their last 12 games as home favorites.
  • The Bills are 0-5 ATS in their last five games at home after covering in their most recent home game.
  • The Broncos are 0-5 ATS in their last five games vs the Bills.
Seahawks-Eagles
  • The Seahawks are 9-0 ATS in their last nine games as an underdog.
  • The Seahawks are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in their last five games on the East Coast.
  • The Seahawks are 6-1 SU in their last seven games.
  • The total has gone OVER in 14 of the Seahawks' last 19 games. (Avg combined score: 52.95)
  • The Seahawks are 5-1 ATS in their last six games on the road.
  • The Seahawks are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games after an ATS win.
  • The total has gone OVER in 14 of the Seahawks' last 19 games after a bye.
  • Over their last three games, the Eagles rank 26th in yards per play.
  • The Eagles are 19-6 SU in their last 25 games at home.
  • The Eagles are 6-1 SU in their last seven games as home favorites.
  • The Seahawks are 4-0 SU and ATS in their last four games vs the Eagles. (Avg winning margin: 13.0)
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Seahawks' last three games vs the Eagles. (Avg combined score: 37.67)
Steelers-Bengals
  • These teams rank 30th and 28th in red-zone TD conversion percentage.
  • The Steelers are 1-6 SU in their last seven games on the road. They’re averaging 13.5 points over their last four road games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in nine of the Steelers' last 10 games on the road. (Avg combined score: 41.8)
  • The total has gone UNDER in 11 of the Steelers' last 13 games vs their division on the road.
  • The Steelers are 15-3-1 SU in their last 19 games vs divisional opponents.
  • The Steelers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games on the road after failing to cover in their most recent road game.
  • The Bengals are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games at home.
  • The Bengals are 0-15 SU in their last 15 games as an underdog.
  • The Bengals are 0-8 SU in their last eight games vs divisional opponents. (Avg losing margin: 12.75)
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Steelers' last three games vs the Bengals. (Avg combined score: 36.0)
  • The Steelers are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games on the road vs the Bengals.
Buccaneers-Falcons
  • The Falcons have allowed just 12 total points in their last two games after allowing 20 or more in each of their previous games this season.
  • The total has gone OVER in the Buccaneers' last eight games. (Avg combined score: 63.5)
  • The total has gone OVER in five of the Buccaneers' last six games vs the Falcons. (Avg combined score: 59.0)
  • The Falcons are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs their division at home.
  • The Falcons are 4-0 SU in their last four games vs divisional opponents. (Avg winning margin: 14.75)
  • The Buccaneers are 0-5 SU in their last five games vs the Falcons. (Avg losing margin: 7.8)
  • The Buccaneers are 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS in their last six games.
  • The Buccaneers are 2-10 SU in their last 12 games on the road.
  • The Buccaneers are 2-7 SU in their last nine games vs divisional opponents.
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Falcons' last four games at home. (Avg combined score: 43.0)
Dolphins-Browns
  • The Dolphins average the fewest penalties per game. The Browns average the second-most.
  • The Dolphins are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games on the road.
  • The Dolphins are 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS in their last seven games on the road vs teams with losing records.
  • The total has gone UNDER in three of the Browns' last four games at home. (Avg combined score: 39.0)
  • The Dolphins are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games vs the Browns.
Giants-Bears
  • The Bears are allowing just 15.13 points over their last eight home games. The Giants are allowing a league-high 33.2 points on the road this season.
  • The total has gone UNDER in seven of the Bears' last eight games at home. (Avg combined score: 31.88)
  • The Giants are 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS in their last six games. (Avg losing margin: 12.67)
  • The Giants are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games on the road.
  • The total has gone OVER in the Giants' last seven games on the road. (Avg combined score: 56.14)
  • The Giants are 5-1 ATS in their last six games on the road vs teams with losing records.
  • The Giants are 8-3 SU in their last 11 games after a bye.
  • The Bears are 1-5 SU and ATS in their last six games.
  • The Bears are 6-1 SU and ATS in their last seven games at home vs teams with losing records.
  • The Giants are 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in their last five games on the road vs the Bears.
Lions-Redskins
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the Redskins' last seven games. (Avg combined score: 31.57)
  • The Lions are 0-5 ATS in their last five games.
  • The total has gone OVER in four of the Lions' last five games. (Avg combined score: 55.8)
  • The Lions are 13-4-1 SU in their last 18 games as favorite.
  • The Redskins are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games.
  • The Redskins are 0-10 SU in their last 10 games as an underdog.
  • The Redskins are 0-4 SU and ATS in their last four games at home vs teams with losing records.
  • The Lions are 1-16 SU in their last 17 games on the road vs the Redskins.
Panthers-Saints
  • The Panthers rank 28th in third-down conversion percentage.  The Saints rank fifth in opponent third-down conversion percentage.
  • The Panthers are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games on the road vs the Saints.
  • The Saints are 7-1 SU and ATS in their last eight games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the Panthers' last seven games vs divisional opponents.
  • The Panthers are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games after consecutive ATS losses.
  • The total has gone UNDER in three of the Saints' last four games at home. (Avg combined score: 38.0)
  • The Saints are 18-4 SU in their last 22 games as home favorites.
  • The Saints are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games as home favorites.
  • The total has gone OVER in eight of the Panthers' last 10 games vs the Saints. (Avg combined score: 52.5)
Raiders-Jets
  • The Raiders have the third-best third-down conversion rate in the NFL. The Jets rank 26th in opponent third-down conversion percentage.
  • The Jets rank 32nd in opponent red-zone TD conversion percentage at home while Oakland ranks 32nd on the road.
  • The Jets are 2-8 SU and 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games at home.
  • The total has gone OVER in six of the Raiders' last eight games on the road. (Avg combined score: 49.88)
  • The Raiders are 6-1 SU in their last seven games as favorite.
  • The Raiders are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games on the road after covering in their most recent road game.
  • The total has gone OVER in the Jets' last four games. (Avg combined score: 50.0)
  • The total has gone OVER in five of the Raiders' last six games vs the Jets. (Avg combined score: 52.0)
  • The Raiders are 0-5 SU in their last five games on the road vs the Jets. (Avg losing margin: 10.4)
Jaguars-Titans
  • Over their last three games, the Titans have a red-zone TD scoring rate of 100 percent. During this same span, the Jaguars have allowed a TD on 80 percent of red-zone trips, worst in the NFL.
  • The Titans are 11-2 SU in their last 13 games as home favorites.
  • The Jaguars are 6-16 SU in their last 22 games.
  • The total has gone OVER in seven of the Titans' last nine games at home. (Avg combined score: 43.89)
  • The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Titans' last 11 games vs divisional opponents.
  • The Titans are 7-2 SU and ATS in their last nine games vs their division at home.
  • The total has gone OVER in six of the Jaguars' last eight games on the road vs the Titans.
  • The Jaguars are 0-5 SU in their last five games on the road vs the Titans. (Avg losing margin: 9.0)
Cowboys-Patriots
  • The Patriots are allowing 10.09 points over their last 11 games and still haven’t allowed a red-zone touchdown at home this season.
  • The Patriots are 20-0 SU in their last 20 games at home. (Avg winning margin: 16.6)
  • The Patriots are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games at home in November.
  • The Cowboys are 0-4 SU and ATS in their last four games on the road vs teams with winning records.
  • The Patriots are 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS in their last eight games at home after consecutive road games.
  • The total has gone OVER in 10 of the Cowboys' last 13 games. (Avg combined score: 50.15)
  • The Cowboys are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games as an underdog.
  • The Cowboys are 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs the Patriots.
Packers-49ers
  • Over their last three games, the 49ers rank third in third-down conversion rate. In this same span, the Packers rank 29th in opponent third-down conversion rate.
  • The Packers are 2-11-1 SU in their last 14 games as an underdog.
  • The Packers are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games at night.
  • The total has gone OVER in the 49ers' last four games. (Avg combined score: 57.5)
  • The total has gone OVER in 20 of the Packers' last 28 games on the road. (Avg combined score: 52.57)
  • The Packers are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games after a bye.
  • The total has gone UNDER in nine of the Packers' last 12 games after a bye.
  • The 49ers are 3-17-1 ATS in their last 21 games as favorite.
  • The total has gone OVER in seven of the Packers' last nine games vs the 49ers. (Avg combined score: 52.11)
  • The Packers are 7-3 SU and 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games on the road vs the 49ers.
Ravens-Rams
  • The Ravens have a league-best 8-2 first-quarter ATS record. The Rams have a league-worst 2-8 first-quarter ATS record.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 12 of the last 16 MNF games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Rams' last five games. (Avg combined score: 32.2)
  • Lamar Jackson’s 104.6 QB rating in four night games is his highest of any time slot.
  • Baltimore ranks tied for fourth in opponent yards per play over its last three games.
  • The Ravens are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games on the road.
  • The total has gone OVER in four of the Ravens' last five games on the road. (Avg combined score: 57.4)
  • The Ravens are 10-2 SU in their last 12 games as favorite.
  • The Ravens are 4-12 SU in their last 16 games on the road vs teams with winning records.
  • The Rams are 11-3 SU in their last 14 games at home.
  • The Rams are 0-4 ATS in their last four games as home underdogs.