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The Pick Six: Week 15 NFL Picks

The Pick Six: Week 15 NFL Betting

After enduring a grueling week of watching my family expand instead of my bankroll from football wagers, I think it’s safe to say that a week-long break from betting was needed after I handed the column off to Iain MacMillan for Week 14.

Iain did an awesome job in my stead by going 4-2 last Sunday with his only real miss being taking the Rams to cover as a favorite at Soldier Field. I think we can give him a mulligan on that one.

Week 15 is an interesting slate because two of the games will be played on Saturday, which means most of the games on Sunday will at least be watchable with the Browns, Broncos, Jets and Texans off the docket. Initial reactions have me favoring the Colts, Steelers and Saints, so let’s dive in and see what sticks.

Each week during the NFL season, I give you my six favorite plays on the moneyline, spread or total. Here we go with Week 15!

The Pick: UNDER 45.5 Browns vs Broncos

I wrote the betting preview for this Saturday main event and I like the scoring to be low and hard to come by. Denver is ranked in the top 10 in points allowed per game and only allows 53 percent of red-zone chances to be converted for touchdowns. The Broncos are the best UNDER bet in the NFL with the total falling short in 10 of their 13 games this season (avg. combined score: 43.7) and five of their six home games. The Browns have been historically bad on the road (1-24 SU in their last 25 away games) and I can’t see them topping 20 points at Mile High Stadium.

The Pick: Colts -3 vs Cowboys

I may be biased as an unapologetic Cowboys fan but I know a bad matchup when I see one and Andrew Luck is scary. The Colts are 6-1 SU and 4-2-1 ATS in their last seven games and this will be a true test to see if they are as good as their recent play has been. Luck should slice and dice the Cowboys secondary that gave up over 20 points in the fourth quarter to the Eagles in Week 14. The Colts are also 4-1 SU in their last five games at home so I’m rolling with the better quarterback to get this win.

The Pick: OVER 43.5 Titans vs Giants

Call me crazy but I think these teams will throw the kitchen sink at each other with potential playoff spots on the line (Titans more so than the Giants) and points will follow. If the Giants just allow Eli Manning to hand the ball off and make quick decisive throws, I fully expect them to drop 25 points at home. This bet really hinges on the Titans, who have been frisky on offense lately. The OVER has hit in their last three games with an average combined score of 46 points per game. Factoring in that the OVER has hit in four of the Giants’ last five games (average combined score: 56.6), I’m liking a scorefest in the Big Apple.

The Pick: UNDER 37 Redskins vs Jaguars

I’m surprised the line is as high as it is with the way the quarterback play has been between these teams. With career backups Cody Kessler and Josh Johnson taking the snaps, this total should be closer to 30. The Jags are averaging a pitiful 13 points per game over their last four and Johnson could only muster 14 points at home against a terrible Giants squad. Why anyone would take an OVER in this must enjoy punishment. Take the UNDER and be glad you didn’t watch a single minute of this game.

The Pick: Steelers +1.5 vs Patriots

The Steelers are a mess and have historically been trounced by the Patriots (2-8 SU and 2-7-1 ATS) in the last 10 games in this matchup but I think they can win this game simply because of how poorly the Pats play on the road this year. The Patriots have four road losses this season to some really deficient teams and this Steelers squad will be the best team they’ve played in an away game this year. Pittsburgh has only lost four games in a row once in the last five years so I’m betting on them to get their poop in a group and get back in the win column with the Ravens breathing down their neck.

The Pick: Saints -6 vs Panthers

This will be the first time these divisional rivals meet up this season and if last year was any indication, the Panthers are in trouble. The Saints played them three times and stomped them each time with an average win margin of 11.2 points per game and New Orleans is arguably better this season than it was last year. The Panthers are a sinking ship and have lost five straight to some chumpy teams like the Buccaneers and Browns. Cam Newton doesn’t look right and I think it will take a miracle for them to cover the 6 points, let alone win the game.

Gilles’ record after 14 weeks (including Thanksgiving): 40-44