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Week 15 NFL Betting Picks, Trends and Stats Primer

NFL Picks Week 15

Do you have important plans that are holding you back from watching an entire game of football this weekend? Perhaps you have a holiday party, a hot date, or a court case to prepare for because you’ve been accused of committing a lewd act that was a simple misunderstanding. We all have life events that hold us back from NFL viewing and I’m here to help.

My solution for maximizing your NFL betting experience is first-half betting and there’s lots of data out there that can help you find an edge. A simple click over to this tweet from me will uncover each team’s first-half point differential and first-half ATS record and if you continue reading for another three seconds, I’ll provide a list of the hottest first-half betting trends in the league.

Here they are:

  • The Texans are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games on the first-half spread.
  • The Bears are 6-0 ATS in their last six games on the first-half spread.
  • The Chiefs are 5-0 ATS in their last five games on the first-half spread.
  • The Eagles are 0-5 ATS in their last five games on the first-half spread.
  • The Chargers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games on the first-half spread.
  • The Giants are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games on the first-half spread.
  • The Jaguars are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games on the first-half spread.
  • The Saints are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games on the first-half spread.

Specific to this week when considering recent first-half trends and point differential numbers, I really like the Bears at -3.5 on the first-half spread vs Green Bay. Here’s why:

  • The Bears have covered the first-half spread in six straight games, but more importantly, they have a league-best +8.31 first-half point differential. The Packers are around the middle of the pack at -1.31.
  • The Bears allow a league-low 6.2 points in the first half.
  • On the road, the Packers allow an average of 18 points in the first half. This is the third-most in the league.
  • The Bears are No. 1 in net yards per play at home.
  • Joe Philbin is the head coach of the Packers.

As we know, the past doesn’t always predict the future. If it did, this betting thing would be a lot easier. But, you can occasionally discover an avalanche of evidence to support an under-the-radar first-half bet. Good luck in Week 15 and at your court case if it truly was a misunderstanding.

Best Bets for Week 15:

Based primarily on the content in this article, here’s my best bets for Week 15 of the NFL season using lines from Thursday, December 13:

  • Chiefs -3.5
  • Texans -6.5
  • Patriots -2.5
  • Bears -3.5 first-half spread (see above)
  • Bills vs Lions UNDER 39.5
  • Raiders vs Bengals UNDER 46
  • Bucs vs Ravens UNDER 46.5
  • Cowboys vs Colts UNDER 47.5
  • Rams Team Total OVER 31.5

Stats and Trends for Week 15:

Chargers at Chiefs
  • The Chiefs are an INSANE 20-1 SU and 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games vs divisional opponents.
  • The favorite is 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 TNF games.
  • The Chiefs have an NFL-best 10-3 ATS record in the first half.
  • The Chargers are 0-9 SU in their last nine games vs the Chiefs. (Avg losing margin: 12.11)
  • The Chiefs are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games at night.
  • The total has gone UNDER in three of the Chargers' last four games on the road vs the Chiefs.
  • The total has gone UNDER in nine of the Chiefs' last 11 games at home. (Avg combined score: 45.73)
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the Chargers' last seven games. (Avg combined score: 45.29)
  • The Chargers are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs their division on the road.
  • The Chargers are 3-8 SU in their last 11 games at night.
  • The Chargers are averaging 34.67 points over their last three games. The Chiefs are averaging 39.33 points over their last three games.
  • Chiefs games this season have an average combined score of 63.23, which is the highest in the NFL.
  • The Chargers lead the NFL in net yards per play on the road.
Texans at Jets
  • The favorite is 6-0 SU in the last six Saturday regular-season games. The total has gone UNDER in five straight Saturday regular-season games.
  • The Texans are allowing an average of just 15 points over their last three road games. The Jets are averaging just 14.67 points over their last six games.
  • The Jets rank last in net yards per play over their last three games.
  • The Jets have an NFL-worst 35.29% red-zone TD scoring percentage at home.
  • The Jets have allowed an NFL-worst 173.7 rushing yards over their last three games.
  • The total has gone OVER in four of the Jets' last five games at home. (Avg combined score: 54.2)
  • The Texans are 2-5 SU and ATS in their last seven games vs the Jets.
  • The Jets are 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS in their last seven games.
  • The Jets are 1-5 SU in their last six games after a win.
  • The Texans are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games in December.
  • The Texans are 1-5 SU in their last six games on the road after consecutive home games.
Browns at Broncos
  • The Browns rank second in net yards per play over their last three games. The Broncos rank 24th over this span.
  • The Browns have a 100% red-zone TD scoring percentage over their last three games.
  • The Broncos are allowing just 15.67 points over their last three games.
  • Browns home games have had an average combined score of 43 points, which is 10.83 fewer points than their road games.
  • The Browns are 0-10 SU in their last 10 games vs the Broncos. (Avg losing margin: 14.1)
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Broncos' last six games. (Avg combined score: 40.5)
  • The Broncos are 3-7 SU and 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games at night.
  • The Broncos are 32-10 SU in their last 42 games at home in December.
  • The Browns are 0-25 SU in their last 25 games as road underdogs.
  • The total has gone UNDER in nine of the Browns' last 11 games on the road in December.
  • The favorite is 6-0 SU in the last six Saturday regular-season games. The total has gone UNDER in five straight Saturday regular-season games.
Buccaneers at Ravens
  • The Ravens have rushed for a league-high 215.7 yards over their last three games.
  • The Ravens are 7-2 SU in their last nine games after a loss.
  • The Ravens are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as favorite.
  • The total has gone OVER in the Buccaneers' last six games on the road. (Avg combined score: 70.5)
  • The Buccaneers are 1-12 SU in their last 13 games as road underdogs.
  • The Buccaneers are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games on the road in December.
Cardinals at Falcons
  • Falcons home games have an average combined score of 56.71 this season.
  • The Falcons have rushed for a league-low 55.7 yards over their last three games.
  • The Cardinals have an NFL-worst -7.08 first-half point differential.
  • The Cardinals are 0-8 SU in their last eight games on the road vs the Falcons. (Avg losing margin: 15.0)
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of the Falcons' last five games. (Avg combined score: 45.8)
  • The Falcons are 0-5 SU and ATS in their last five games. (Avg losing margin: 10.6)
  • The Cardinals are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after an ATS loss.
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the Cardinals' last eight games in the early afternoon.
  • The Cardinals are 12-5 SU in their last 17 games on the road vs teams with losing records.
  • The Cardinals are averaging just 11 points over their last three games but managed to get Mike McCarthy fired in one of them.
Cowboys at Colts
  • Over their last seven road games, the Cowboys are averaging just 15.57 points. The Colts are averaging 33 points over their last five home games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in nine of the Cowboys' last 10 games on the road. (Avg combined score: 33.8)
  • Over their last three games, the Cowboys have a 33.33% red-zone TD scoring percentage. This is the lowest in the league over this span.
  • Over their last three games, the Cowboys have allowed a league-low 59.7 rushing yards per game.
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Colts' last four games. (Avg combined score: 37.5)
  • The Cowboys are 3-0 SU in their last three games vs the Colts. (Avg winning margin: 15.0)
  • The Colts are 7-0 SU in their last seven games as home favorites.
  • The Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in their last five games on the road vs teams with winning records.
  • The Cowboys are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games on the road after consecutive home games.
Dolphins at Vikings
  • The Dolphins’ first-half ATS record is 9-4, tying them for second-best in the league.
  • The Vikings are second in the NFL in net yards per play at home. The Dolphins are tied for last on the road.
  • Over their last three games, the Vikings are averaging just 13.67 points.
  • Over their last 13 road games, the Dolphins are averaging just 15.08 points.
  • The Vikings are 31-12-1 ATS in their last 44 games at home.
  • The Dolphins are 1-10 SU and 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games on the road.
  • The Dolphins are 3-0 SU in their last three games vs the Vikings. (Avg winning margin: 3.33)
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Dolphins' last three games on the road vs the Vikings.
  • The Vikings are 10-2 SU in their last 12 games at home.
  • The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Vikings' last 10 games at home. (Avg combined score: 39.9)
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of the Dolphins' last five games. (Avg combined score: 43.6)
Lions at Bills
  • The Lions are averaging just 16 points over their last three road games. The Bills are averaging just 14.5 points over their last 10 home games.
  • The Bills have a first-half point differential of -6.15 which is second-worst in the NFL.
  • The Bills have allowed a league-low 130.7 passing yards over their last three games.
  • The total has gone OVER in 17 of the Bills' last 22 games at home. (Avg combined score: 46.73)
  • The Bills are 14-5 SU in their last 19 games after consecutive losses.
  • The Lions are 1-5 SU in their last six games after a win.
  • The Lions are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as underdog.
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Lions' last four games. (Avg combined score: 36.0)
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Lions' last five games vs the Bills. (Avg combined score: 34.0)
Packers at Bears
  • The Bears have covered six straight first-half spreads and have a league-best 8.31 first-half point differential. The Packers are at -1.31.
  • On the road, the Packers allow an average of 18 points in the first half, which is the third-most in the NFL.
  • The Packers are 0-8 SU and 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games on the road. (Avg losing margin: 9.88)
  • The Bears lead the league in net yards per play at home.
  • The Bears are allowing an average of just 14.5 points over their last four home games.
  • The Bears lead the league in turnover differential.
  • At home, the Bears allow a league-low 64.1 rushing yards per game.
  • The Packers are 15-2 SU in their last 17 games vs the Bears.
  • The Packers are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games vs the Bears.
  • The total has gone OVER in the Packers' last four games vs the Bears. (Avg combined score: 48.0)
  • The total has gone OVER in seven of the Bears' last 10 games. (Avg combined score: 48.8)
  • The Bears are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs divisional opponents.
  • The total has gone OVER in 14 of the Packers' last 18 games on the road. (Avg combined score: 52.39)
  • The Packers are 0-8 SU and 2-6 ATS in their last eight games on the road vs teams with winning records.
Raiders at Bengals
  • The Bengals are tied for the worst first-half ATS record at 4-9.
  • The Raiders have a 90% red-zone TD scoring percentage over their last three games.
  • Over their last three home games, the Bengals have scored an average of 14.67 points and allowed an average of 36.67 points.
  • The Raiders have averaged 13.25 points over their last four road games.
  • The Raiders are 5-23 SU in their last 28 games on the East Coast.
  • The Raiders are 12-29 ATS in their last 41 games on the road in December.
  • The Bengals are 0-5 SU in their last five games. (Avg losing margin: 14.8)
  • The Raiders are 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS in their last five games on the road vs the Bengals.
  • The Bengals are 7-2 SU in their last nine games when hosting a West Coast team.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 14 of the Raiders' last 20 games. (Avg combined score: 44.8)
  • The Raiders are tied for last in net yards per play on the road.
Redskins at Jaguars
  • The Jaguars are averaging 11.75 points over their last four home games. They’re allowing just 12.78 points over their last nine home games.
  • Jaguars home games have had an average combined score of 31.43 this season, which is the lowest in the NFL. Redskins road games are at 39.83.
  • The Jaguars are 9-3 SU in their last 12 games at home.
  • The Jaguars are 3-16 ATS in their last 19 games at home after covering in their most recent home game.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 13 of the Jaguars' last 18 games in the early afternoon.
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the Redskins' last eight games on the road. (Avg combined score: 38.75)
  • Aside from betting reasons, why would someone watch this game?
  • The Redskins are 9-3 SU in their last 12 games after consecutive losses.
  • The Redskins are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games after an ATS loss.
Titans at Giants
  • The Titans lead the NFL in net yards per play over their last three games.
  • The Giants are tied for the worst first-half ATS record at 4-9.
  • The Titans are averaging just 15.83 points over their last six road games.
  • Titans road games this season have an average combined score of 38.14. This is the lowest in the NFL.
  • The Giants are averaging 32.5 points over their last four games.
  • The Giants are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games after an ATS win.
  • The Titans are 5-1 SU and ATS in their last six games vs the Giants.
  • The total has gone OVER in four of the Giants' last five games. (Avg combined score: 56.6)
  • The Giants are 2-7 SU in their last nine games after a win.
  • The Titans are 1-5 SU in their last six games after consecutive wins.
  • The Titans are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games in the early afternoon.
  • The total has gone OVER in the Titans' last three games. (Avg combined score: 46.0)
Patriots at Steelers
  • The Patriots are 44-11 SU and 37-18 ATS in the game after losing as a favorite in the Belichick era.
  • The Steelers have an NFL-best 89.47% red-zone TD scoring percentage at home.
  • The Patriots are 5-0 SU in their last five games vs the Steelers. (Avg winning margin: 12.8)
  • The total has gone OVER in 11 of the Steelers' last 13 games at home. (Avg combined score: 60.77)
  • The Steelers have averaged 39 points over their last four home games.
  • The Steelers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games at home vs teams with winning records.
  • The Steelers are 11-3 SU in their last 14 games at home after losing their most recent home game.
  • The Patriots are 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games on the road vs teams with winning records.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the Patriots' last six games. (Avg combined score: 44.0)
  • The total has gone UNDER in three of the Patriots' last four games vs the Steelers. (Avg combined score: 49.0)
Seahawks at 49ers
  • The 49ers have an NFL-worst -21 turnover differential. The Seahawks have a second-best +11.
  • The Seahawks are 13-2 ATS in their last 15 games vs the 49ers.
  • The Seahawks are 10-0 SU in their last 10 games vs the 49ers. (Avg winning margin: 12.7)
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the 49ers' last seven games. (Avg combined score: 42.57)
  • The 49ers have allowed an average of just 13.33 points over their last three home games.
  • The 49ers are 6-15 SU and ATS in their last 21 games at home.
  • The 49ers are 1-10 SU in their last 11 games vs divisional opponents.
  • The Seahawks are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Seahawks' last 10 games vs their division on the road.
Eagles at Rams
  • The Rams are averaging 39.67 points over their last three home games. The Eagles are allowing 31.67 points over their last three road games.
  • The Eagles allow a league-high 341 passing yards per game on the road. The Rams lead the league in passing yards per game at home.
  • The Eagles are tied for the worst first-half ATS record at 4-9.
  • The Eagles are 5-0 SU and ATS in their last five games vs the Rams. (Avg winning margin: 13.6)
  • The total has gone OVER in four of the Rams' last five games at home. (Avg combined score: 71.0)
  • The total has gone OVER in six of the Eagles' last seven games on the road. (Avg combined score: 56.0)
  • The Rams are 6-0 SU in their last six games at home. (Avg winning margin: 10.5)
  • The Rams are 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS in their last five games at home after consecutive road games.
  • The Eagles are 8-2 SU in their last 10 games at night.
  • The Eagles are 1-5 ATS in their last six games on the road.
Saints at Panthers
  • The Panthers are averaging 35 points over their last three home games. The Saints are averaging 35.5 points over their last six games.
  • The Panthers lead the league in rushing yards per game at home with 174.7 yards.
  • The Saints are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games vs the Panthers.
  • The total has gone OVER in the Panthers' last five games at home. (Avg combined score: 60.0)
  • The total has gone OVER in seven of the Saints' last eight games vs the Panthers. (Avg combined score: 57.13)
  • The Saints are 3-0 SU in their last three games vs the Panthers. (Avg winning margin: 12.0)
  • The Panthers are 10-1 SU and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games at home.
  • The Saints are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games on the road.
  • The Saints are 8-1 SU in their last nine games as favorite.
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Saints' last four games. (Avg combined score: 42.0)
  • The road team is 0-4 SU in the last four MNF games.

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