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NFL Picks Week 15
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Week 15 NFL Betting Picks, Trends and Stats Primer

Joe Osborne Published on: Dec 15, 2018 4:00 PM ET

Do you have important plans that are holding you back from watching an entire game of football this weekend? Perhaps you have a holiday party, a hot date, or a court case to prepare for because you’ve been accused of committing a lewd act that was a simple misunderstanding. We all have life events that hold us back from NFL viewing and I’m here to help.

My solution for maximizing your NFL betting experience is first-half betting and there’s lots of data out there that can help you find an edge. A simple click over to this tweet from me will uncover each team’s first-half point differential and first-half ATS record and if you continue reading for another three seconds, I’ll provide a list of the hottest first-half betting trends in the league.

Here they are:

  • The Texans are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games on the first-half spread.
  • The Bears are 6-0 ATS in their last six games on the first-half spread.
  • The Chiefs are 5-0 ATS in their last five games on the first-half spread.
  • The Eagles are 0-5 ATS in their last five games on the first-half spread.
  • The Chargers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games on the first-half spread.
  • The Giants are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games on the first-half spread.
  • The Jaguars are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games on the first-half spread.
  • The Saints are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games on the first-half spread.

Specific to this week when considering recent first-half trends and point differential numbers, I really like the Bears at -3.5 on the first-half spread vs Green Bay. Here’s why:

  • The Bears have covered the first-half spread in six straight games, but more importantly, they have a league-best +8.31 first-half point differential. The Packers are around the middle of the pack at -1.31.
  • The Bears allow a league-low 6.2 points in the first half.
  • On the road, the Packers allow an average of 18 points in the first half. This is the third-most in the league.
  • The Bears are No. 1 in net yards per play at home.
  • Joe Philbin is the head coach of the Packers.

As we know, the past doesn’t always predict the future. If it did, this betting thing would be a lot easier. But, you can occasionally discover an avalanche of evidence to support an under-the-radar first-half bet. Good luck in Week 15 and at your court case if it truly was a misunderstanding.

Best Bets for Week 15:

Based primarily on the content in this article, here’s my best bets for Week 15 of the NFL season using lines from Thursday, December 13:

  • Chiefs -3.5
  • Texans -6.5
  • Patriots -2.5
  • Bears -3.5 first-half spread (see above)
  • Bills vs Lions UNDER 39.5
  • Raiders vs Bengals UNDER 46
  • Bucs vs Ravens UNDER 46.5
  • Cowboys vs Colts UNDER 47.5
  • Rams Team Total OVER 31.5

Stats and Trends for Week 15:

Chargers at Chiefs
  • The Chiefs are an INSANE 20-1 SU and 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games vs divisional opponents.
  • The favorite is 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 TNF games.
  • The Chiefs have an NFL-best 10-3 ATS record in the first half.
  • The Chargers are 0-9 SU in their last nine games vs the Chiefs. (Avg losing margin: 12.11)
  • The Chiefs are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games at night.
  • The total has gone UNDER in three of the Chargers' last four games on the road vs the Chiefs.
  • The total has gone UNDER in nine of the Chiefs' last 11 games at home. (Avg combined score: 45.73)
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the Chargers' last seven games. (Avg combined score: 45.29)
  • The Chargers are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs their division on the road.
  • The Chargers are 3-8 SU in their last 11 games at night.
  • The Chargers are averaging 34.67 points over their last three games. The Chiefs are averaging 39.33 points over their last three games.
  • Chiefs games this season have an average combined score of 63.23, which is the highest in the NFL.
  • The Chargers lead the NFL in net yards per play on the road.
Texans at Jets
  • The favorite is 6-0 SU in the last six Saturday regular-season games. The total has gone UNDER in five straight Saturday regular-season games.
  • The Texans are allowing an average of just 15 points over their last three road games. The Jets are averaging just 14.67 points over their last six games.
  • The Jets rank last in net yards per play over their last three games.
  • The Jets have an NFL-worst 35.29% red-zone TD scoring percentage at home.
  • The Jets have allowed an NFL-worst 173.7 rushing yards over their last three games.
  • The total has gone OVER in four of the Jets' last five games at home. (Avg combined score: 54.2)
  • The Texans are 2-5 SU and ATS in their last seven games vs the Jets.
  • The Jets are 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS in their last seven games.
  • The Jets are 1-5 SU in their last six games after a win.
  • The Texans are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games in December.
  • The Texans are 1-5 SU in their last six games on the road after consecutive home games.
Browns at Broncos
  • The Browns rank second in net yards per play over their last three games. The Broncos rank 24th over this span.
  • The Browns have a 100% red-zone TD scoring percentage over their last three games.
  • The Broncos are allowing just 15.67 points over their last three games.
  • Browns home games have had an average combined score of 43 points, which is 10.83 fewer points than their road games.
  • The Browns are 0-10 SU in their last 10 games vs the Broncos. (Avg losing margin: 14.1)
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Broncos' last six games. (Avg combined score: 40.5)
  • The Broncos are 3-7 SU and 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games at night.
  • The Broncos are 32-10 SU in their last 42 games at home in December.
  • The Browns are 0-25 SU in their last 25 games as road underdogs.
  • The total has gone UNDER in nine of the Browns' last 11 games on the road in December.
  • The favorite is 6-0 SU in the last six Saturday regular-season games. The total has gone UNDER in five straight Saturday regular-season games.
Buccaneers at Ravens
  • The Ravens have rushed for a league-high 215.7 yards over their last three games.
  • The Ravens are 7-2 SU in their last nine games after a loss.
  • The Ravens are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as favorite.
  • The total has gone OVER in the Buccaneers' last six games on the road. (Avg combined score: 70.5)
  • The Buccaneers are 1-12 SU in their last 13 games as road underdogs.
  • The Buccaneers are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games on the road in December.
Cardinals at Falcons
  • Falcons home games have an average combined score of 56.71 this season.
  • The Falcons have rushed for a league-low 55.7 yards over their last three games.
  • The Cardinals have an NFL-worst -7.08 first-half point differential.
  • The Cardinals are 0-8 SU in their last eight games on the road vs the Falcons. (Avg losing margin: 15.0)
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of the Falcons' last five games. (Avg combined score: 45.8)
  • The Falcons are 0-5 SU and ATS in their last five games. (Avg losing margin: 10.6)
  • The Cardinals are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after an ATS loss.
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the Cardinals' last eight games in the early afternoon.
  • The Cardinals are 12-5 SU in their last 17 games on the road vs teams with losing records.
  • The Cardinals are averaging just 11 points over their last three games but managed to get Mike McCarthy fired in one of them.
Cowboys at Colts
  • Over their last seven road games, the Cowboys are averaging just 15.57 points. The Colts are averaging 33 points over their last five home games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in nine of the Cowboys' last 10 games on the road. (Avg combined score: 33.8)
  • Over their last three games, the Cowboys have a 33.33% red-zone TD scoring percentage. This is the lowest in the league over this span.
  • Over their last three games, the Cowboys have allowed a league-low 59.7 rushing yards per game.
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Colts' last four games. (Avg combined score: 37.5)
  • The Cowboys are 3-0 SU in their last three games vs the Colts. (Avg winning margin: 15.0)
  • The Colts are 7-0 SU in their last seven games as home favorites.
  • The Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in their last five games on the road vs teams with winning records.
  • The Cowboys are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games on the road after consecutive home games.
Dolphins at Vikings
  • The Dolphins’ first-half ATS record is 9-4, tying them for second-best in the league.
  • The Vikings are second in the NFL in net yards per play at home. The Dolphins are tied for last on the road.
  • Over their last three games, the Vikings are averaging just 13.67 points.
  • Over their last 13 road games, the Dolphins are averaging just 15.08 points.
  • The Vikings are 31-12-1 ATS in their last 44 games at home.
  • The Dolphins are 1-10 SU and 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games on the road.
  • The Dolphins are 3-0 SU in their last three games vs the Vikings. (Avg winning margin: 3.33)
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Dolphins' last three games on the road vs the Vikings.
  • The Vikings are 10-2 SU in their last 12 games at home.
  • The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Vikings' last 10 games at home. (Avg combined score: 39.9)
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of the Dolphins' last five games. (Avg combined score: 43.6)
Lions at Bills
  • The Lions are averaging just 16 points over their last three road games. The Bills are averaging just 14.5 points over their last 10 home games.
  • The Bills have a first-half point differential of -6.15 which is second-worst in the NFL.
  • The Bills have allowed a league-low 130.7 passing yards over their last three games.
  • The total has gone OVER in 17 of the Bills' last 22 games at home. (Avg combined score: 46.73)
  • The Bills are 14-5 SU in their last 19 games after consecutive losses.
  • The Lions are 1-5 SU in their last six games after a win.
  • The Lions are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as underdog.
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Lions' last four games. (Avg combined score: 36.0)
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Lions' last five games vs the Bills. (Avg combined score: 34.0)
Packers at Bears
  • The Bears have covered six straight first-half spreads and have a league-best 8.31 first-half point differential. The Packers are at -1.31.
  • On the road, the Packers allow an average of 18 points in the first half, which is the third-most in the NFL.
  • The Packers are 0-8 SU and 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games on the road. (Avg losing margin: 9.88)
  • The Bears lead the league in net yards per play at home.
  • The Bears are allowing an average of just 14.5 points over their last four home games.
  • The Bears lead the league in turnover differential.
  • At home, the Bears allow a league-low 64.1 rushing yards per game.
  • The Packers are 15-2 SU in their last 17 games vs the Bears.
  • The Packers are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games vs the Bears.
  • The total has gone OVER in the Packers' last four games vs the Bears. (Avg combined score: 48.0)
  • The total has gone OVER in seven of the Bears' last 10 games. (Avg combined score: 48.8)
  • The Bears are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs divisional opponents.
  • The total has gone OVER in 14 of the Packers' last 18 games on the road. (Avg combined score: 52.39)
  • The Packers are 0-8 SU and 2-6 ATS in their last eight games on the road vs teams with winning records.
Raiders at Bengals
  • The Bengals are tied for the worst first-half ATS record at 4-9.
  • The Raiders have a 90% red-zone TD scoring percentage over their last three games.
  • Over their last three home games, the Bengals have scored an average of 14.67 points and allowed an average of 36.67 points.
  • The Raiders have averaged 13.25 points over their last four road games.
  • The Raiders are 5-23 SU in their last 28 games on the East Coast.
  • The Raiders are 12-29 ATS in their last 41 games on the road in December.
  • The Bengals are 0-5 SU in their last five games. (Avg losing margin: 14.8)
  • The Raiders are 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS in their last five games on the road vs the Bengals.
  • The Bengals are 7-2 SU in their last nine games when hosting a West Coast team.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 14 of the Raiders' last 20 games. (Avg combined score: 44.8)
  • The Raiders are tied for last in net yards per play on the road.
Redskins at Jaguars
  • The Jaguars are averaging 11.75 points over their last four home games. They’re allowing just 12.78 points over their last nine home games.
  • Jaguars home games have had an average combined score of 31.43 this season, which is the lowest in the NFL. Redskins road games are at 39.83.
  • The Jaguars are 9-3 SU in their last 12 games at home.
  • The Jaguars are 3-16 ATS in their last 19 games at home after covering in their most recent home game.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 13 of the Jaguars' last 18 games in the early afternoon.
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the Redskins' last eight games on the road. (Avg combined score: 38.75)
  • Aside from betting reasons, why would someone watch this game?
  • The Redskins are 9-3 SU in their last 12 games after consecutive losses.
  • The Redskins are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games after an ATS loss.
Titans at Giants
  • The Titans lead the NFL in net yards per play over their last three games.
  • The Giants are tied for the worst first-half ATS record at 4-9.
  • The Titans are averaging just 15.83 points over their last six road games.
  • Titans road games this season have an average combined score of 38.14. This is the lowest in the NFL.
  • The Giants are averaging 32.5 points over their last four games.
  • The Giants are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games after an ATS win.
  • The Titans are 5-1 SU and ATS in their last six games vs the Giants.
  • The total has gone OVER in four of the Giants' last five games. (Avg combined score: 56.6)
  • The Giants are 2-7 SU in their last nine games after a win.
  • The Titans are 1-5 SU in their last six games after consecutive wins.
  • The Titans are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games in the early afternoon.
  • The total has gone OVER in the Titans' last three games. (Avg combined score: 46.0)
Patriots at Steelers
  • The Patriots are 44-11 SU and 37-18 ATS in the game after losing as a favorite in the Belichick era.
  • The Steelers have an NFL-best 89.47% red-zone TD scoring percentage at home.
  • The Patriots are 5-0 SU in their last five games vs the Steelers. (Avg winning margin: 12.8)
  • The total has gone OVER in 11 of the Steelers' last 13 games at home. (Avg combined score: 60.77)
  • The Steelers have averaged 39 points over their last four home games.
  • The Steelers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games at home vs teams with winning records.
  • The Steelers are 11-3 SU in their last 14 games at home after losing their most recent home game.
  • The Patriots are 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games on the road vs teams with winning records.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the Patriots' last six games. (Avg combined score: 44.0)
  • The total has gone UNDER in three of the Patriots' last four games vs the Steelers. (Avg combined score: 49.0)
Seahawks at 49ers
  • The 49ers have an NFL-worst -21 turnover differential. The Seahawks have a second-best +11.
  • The Seahawks are 13-2 ATS in their last 15 games vs the 49ers.
  • The Seahawks are 10-0 SU in their last 10 games vs the 49ers. (Avg winning margin: 12.7)
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the 49ers' last seven games. (Avg combined score: 42.57)
  • The 49ers have allowed an average of just 13.33 points over their last three home games.
  • The 49ers are 6-15 SU and ATS in their last 21 games at home.
  • The 49ers are 1-10 SU in their last 11 games vs divisional opponents.
  • The Seahawks are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Seahawks' last 10 games vs their division on the road.
Eagles at Rams
  • The Rams are averaging 39.67 points over their last three home games. The Eagles are allowing 31.67 points over their last three road games.
  • The Eagles allow a league-high 341 passing yards per game on the road. The Rams lead the league in passing yards per game at home.
  • The Eagles are tied for the worst first-half ATS record at 4-9.
  • The Eagles are 5-0 SU and ATS in their last five games vs the Rams. (Avg winning margin: 13.6)
  • The total has gone OVER in four of the Rams' last five games at home. (Avg combined score: 71.0)
  • The total has gone OVER in six of the Eagles' last seven games on the road. (Avg combined score: 56.0)
  • The Rams are 6-0 SU in their last six games at home. (Avg winning margin: 10.5)
  • The Rams are 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS in their last five games at home after consecutive road games.
  • The Eagles are 8-2 SU in their last 10 games at night.
  • The Eagles are 1-5 ATS in their last six games on the road.
Saints at Panthers
  • The Panthers are averaging 35 points over their last three home games. The Saints are averaging 35.5 points over their last six games.
  • The Panthers lead the league in rushing yards per game at home with 174.7 yards.
  • The Saints are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games vs the Panthers.
  • The total has gone OVER in the Panthers' last five games at home. (Avg combined score: 60.0)
  • The total has gone OVER in seven of the Saints' last eight games vs the Panthers. (Avg combined score: 57.13)
  • The Saints are 3-0 SU in their last three games vs the Panthers. (Avg winning margin: 12.0)
  • The Panthers are 10-1 SU and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games at home.
  • The Saints are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games on the road.
  • The Saints are 8-1 SU in their last nine games as favorite.
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Saints' last four games. (Avg combined score: 42.0)
  • The road team is 0-4 SU in the last four MNF games.

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