Coming off some profits in The Pick Six for Week 15 in the NFL, I’m still stunned by some of the weird outcomes we saw. The Cowboys got shut out, the Chargers disregarded overtime and the Patriots and Rams got knocked off their perch. This is why NFL betting is the best thing in the world because no favorite is a lock.
I know some of my readers are unenthusiastic (to put it nicely) about my 44-46 record for the season but I wanted to comment on why I post it at the bottom of the article each week and that’s because you deserve transparency.
There are a lot of “pro” gamblers and pick services out there that either won’t post their true betting record or embellish their earnings to make you think that you can win big and get rich easily and I’m here to tell you that sports betting is a grind for most and fun for others. Some bettors get on heaters or cold streaks and any bettor who tells you they are winning regularly or have a winning percentage over 70 percent in the NFL is, for lack of a better word, a liar.
All right, now that we’ve got that out of the way, let’s get back to The Pick Six because Week 16 in the NFL has an interesting slate of games where I think we can make some money on teams such as the Ravens, Eagles and Seahawks.
Each week during the NFL season, I give you my six favorite plays on the moneyline, spread or total. Here we go with Week 16!
The Pick: Ravens +4.5 vs Chargers
I wrote the betting preview for this pivotal AFC matchup and while I think the Chargers have a great shot at making it to the Super Bowl, the Ravens are such a force defensively. I think Baltimore can keep this game close even if the offense is super predictable with QB Lamar Jackson averaging an absurd 17.2 carries per game as a starter. The Ravens have covered in every road game as an underdog this season and I think the Chargers’ last three wins were so close that they could be prone for a letdown.
The Pick: UNDER 37 Redskins vs Titans
They can’t make this line low enough. In an “epic” quarterback battle between Marcus Mariota and Josh Johnson, this total should be closer to 30. The Deadskins haven’t topped 20 points in their last three games and are averaging 17.5 points over their last six contests. As for the Titans, outside of the run game, they are a dumpster fire offensively. Tennessee is one of three teams to be shut out at home this season and is only averaging 19.7 points per game (ranked 27th). I expect at most 30 points in this game.
The Pick: Eagles moneyline vs Texans
Call it the Nick Foles Effect but this team is a different animal with him at the helm. The Eagles shocked the Rams in Week 15 and, although it may be a long shot, they still have a chance to make the postseason. The Eagles secondary is pretty banged up but I think the cold weather and the fact that the Texans offense is one-dimensional should allow the Eagles to prevail. Factoring in that the Eagles are 7-2 SU in their last nine games with Foles as the starter (including playoffs), I’m happy to take them on the moneyline.
The Pick: Saints -6 vs Steelers
18.4 points. That’s the average win margin for the Saints in their home games this season with the Week 2 game vs the Browns as their closest game (outside of the loss to the Buccaneers in Week 1). New Orleans should crush the Steelers by double-digit points and Pittsburgh has failed to cover the spread in its last three road games. This case is simple for the Saints, who are the Super Bowl betting favorite, as they dominate teams at home and I’m not sold on the Steelers, who are coming off a hollow home win vs the Patriots.
The Pick: Browns -9 vs Bengals
My betting colleague Scott Hastings is all over the Brownies and while I have reservations about the Cleveland resurgence, Scott can be very persuasive. In his betting preview, he detailed how the Browns defense has been superb recently, allowing an average of only 20.2 points per game over their last five contests, and thoroughly dominated the Bengals in Cincy by winning 35-20. The Bungles are on third-string players in a lot of key areas and pretty much counting down the days until the season is over so I’m rolling with Cleveland and banking that their recent surge isn’t just a fluke.
The Pick: Seahawks +2.5 vs Chiefs
There are enough “Seattle in prime-time games” trends out there to make you wonder how they’re not the favorite on Sunday. “Smokin’” Joe Osborne detailed most of them in his betting preview and while the Seahawks aren’t pleasing to the eye to watch play football, they know how to cover the spread. They’re 15-3-3 ATS in their last 21 games at night, 9-0 ATS in their last nine games in prime time and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 night games as an underdog, to share just a few of the positive trends in their favor. While I think no team in the NFL can stop the Chiefs offense, the reality is their defense is atrocious and ranks in the bottom five in passing yards, rushing yards and points allowed per game. If this game was at Arrowhead, it would be a different story but since this game is at CenturyLink Field, give me the Seahawks all day.
Gilles’ record after 15 weeks (including Thanksgiving): 44-46
